I agree that both topics should be mentioned. But is AI not the main cause here? Basically, companies no longer see the same value prop in hiring highly-paid college grads with CS degrees. What has changed is AI — not their appetite for H1Bs. Maybe AI makes their H1Bs more effective, or maybe it makes their foreign workers in low-cost jurisdictions more effective.
Either way, it's AI that's changing the calculus on whether a Georgetown grad who worked her but off to get in, and to graduate with a CS degree, has lots of highly-paid prospects.
I dream that LLMs will be the disaster that finally convinces the software engineering field that code isn't so "soft" after all, and that software engineering should be licensed, bonded, and insured.
Every single other engineering field has gone through it. "Regulations are written in blood".
> “The unfortunate thing right now, specifically for recent college grads, is those positions that are most likely to be automated are the entry-level positions that they would be seeking,” said Matthew Martin, U.S. senior economist at Oxford Economics, a forecasting firm.
This matches my experience. About 90% of the coding tasks I would have assigned to a junior in years past, I can get done for a fraction of the price at a similar quality and in 1/3rd the time by a tool like Claude Code. The only reason I have to hire a junior would be to develop them into a senior over 3-5 years, and companies are far too shortsided to think about that training pipeline.
A good senior engineer still does things the tools can't- in particular, non-programming tasks like planning, persuading, and accountability. I fear that there will be a crisis in these skills as the current seniors retire/change industries in the coming years.
So sounds like the new entry level position is going to be learning to manage automations.
Question I still don't have an answer to is what that career trajectory looks like. I was at a event last week where someone from a popular startup, Clay, described a position (a "GTM engineer") as very intentionally not strategic, but about boots on the ground execution. I came away from the event wondering was "ok, how long until you automate away this line of work?"
Society rewards you if you can give it what it needs, and I guess one of the things society wants right now is Chipotle.
One aspect of college is that it's supposed to teach you how to be a better thinker. One could make the argument that someone who graduated through college should have developed the critical thinking skills required to teach themselves another skill that IS in demand.
What do you tell new grads who can't find a job to do? Learn plumbing, heating/AC, or electrical work? Start a small business?
AI performs best in non-deterministic environments where highly extensive if slightly imperfect (or even hallucinatory) knowledge works just fine. When mapped onto today’s jobs, the fit feels less natural for high-level engineering than for “looser” tasks that would do well to be armed with wider knowledge. In other words, it seems like AI—or AI-armed humans—are more squarely aimed at executives.
> “It is difficult to find the motivation to keep applying,” said Mr. Taylor, adding that he was now building personal software projects to show prospective employers.
I know it's common advice for students and newly grads to do this, but in my experience, employers do not care about personal software projects or open-source contributions unless the work is aligned with their product. That, or you built something that is easily lucrative. Otherwise, they do not care, they do not care, they do not care.
If your goal is personal enrichment, by all means, but don't kill yourself on a personal project with the intention of impressing an employer.
Something has to come to a head soon. High paying jobs can't disappear if everything is going to continue to cost an arm and two legs. We're either going to have to pick up pitchforks or we're going to complacent ourselves into multi-generational family living. I hope the former. I'm sick of the money funnel pointing in the wrong direction.
Sorry but am I the only one skeptical of this narrative? There is no way in hell a Purdue grad cannot at least land a lame IT role at a healthcare provider, the public sector or in the military. The government is turning 21 year olds from prestigious universities with technical degrees away?
Maybe goodbye to six figure tech jobs at fancy company X, just take the high five figure tech job where you'll have to write a lot of boring C# but at least you're getting paid
I don't know, start with a lower salary. I did. Ok, that was like nearly 20 years ago, but it was in Manhattan. It wasn't cheap. Stop trying to work at stupid FAANG companies. I can't understand why anyone would want to work at those places. You learn nothing because there's too many people. On the other side of the fence, the pressure cooker startups adopting those insane 12 hour 6 work day weeks are also bad.
So I get it, there's not much left...but expecting six figures for your first job is crazy.
The part of the article that talks about tech leaders encouraging young people to "code" and pursue CS degrees, combined with fabled "six-figure" salaries is reminiscent to me of the Dot-com Bubble. All sorts of people were being encouraged to study "computers" (even my dear, technically inept wife). When the bubble burst, there were just no jobs for young people who were in it solely for the money, not the passion. I have to wonder if the job market is again oversaturated with these people.
Even within the article's anecdotes:
> Ms. Mishra, the Purdue graduate, did not get the burrito-making gig at Chipotle. But her side hustle as a beauty influencer on TikTok, she said, helped her realize that she was more enthusiastic about tech marketing and sales than software engineering. [emphasis mine]
Sounds like she was headed down the wrong path to begin with. How many others are like this who have just been riding a hype wave?
Nevertheless, I will say that learning to code is still a useful skill for anyone, even in a future saturated with AI.
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[ 2.9 ms ] story [ 46.7 ms ] threadAll the sympathies to these people.
Microsoft just laid off thousands and yet are still hiring thousands of H1Bs.
Just one example.
The majority of Adobes jobs on their career page are for foreign workers.
A.I. is misdirection
Either way, it's AI that's changing the calculus on whether a Georgetown grad who worked her but off to get in, and to graduate with a CS degree, has lots of highly-paid prospects.
Every single other engineering field has gone through it. "Regulations are written in blood".
This matches my experience. About 90% of the coding tasks I would have assigned to a junior in years past, I can get done for a fraction of the price at a similar quality and in 1/3rd the time by a tool like Claude Code. The only reason I have to hire a junior would be to develop them into a senior over 3-5 years, and companies are far too shortsided to think about that training pipeline.
A good senior engineer still does things the tools can't- in particular, non-programming tasks like planning, persuading, and accountability. I fear that there will be a crisis in these skills as the current seniors retire/change industries in the coming years.
Question I still don't have an answer to is what that career trajectory looks like. I was at a event last week where someone from a popular startup, Clay, described a position (a "GTM engineer") as very intentionally not strategic, but about boots on the ground execution. I came away from the event wondering was "ok, how long until you automate away this line of work?"
https://sfpl.libanswers.com/faq/166904
However people keep rejoicing their use of Claude without looking into the future.
Those cool agents that close tickets on their own, eventually will have an error rate lower than humans.
How many architects does a project need?
One aspect of college is that it's supposed to teach you how to be a better thinker. One could make the argument that someone who graduated through college should have developed the critical thinking skills required to teach themselves another skill that IS in demand.
What do you tell new grads who can't find a job to do? Learn plumbing, heating/AC, or electrical work? Start a small business?
I know it's common advice for students and newly grads to do this, but in my experience, employers do not care about personal software projects or open-source contributions unless the work is aligned with their product. That, or you built something that is easily lucrative. Otherwise, they do not care, they do not care, they do not care.
If your goal is personal enrichment, by all means, but don't kill yourself on a personal project with the intention of impressing an employer.
I have no interest in looking at their resume, the first thing I do is look to see if they have a Github and what they've done with it
My green bar on Github and open source contributions have gotten me everything in life. Money, jobs, contracts, community support, etc.
Maybe goodbye to six figure tech jobs at fancy company X, just take the high five figure tech job where you'll have to write a lot of boring C# but at least you're getting paid
So I get it, there's not much left...but expecting six figures for your first job is crazy.
Even within the article's anecdotes:
> Ms. Mishra, the Purdue graduate, did not get the burrito-making gig at Chipotle. But her side hustle as a beauty influencer on TikTok, she said, helped her realize that she was more enthusiastic about tech marketing and sales than software engineering. [emphasis mine]
Sounds like she was headed down the wrong path to begin with. How many others are like this who have just been riding a hype wave?
Nevertheless, I will say that learning to code is still a useful skill for anyone, even in a future saturated with AI.