HN Explorer

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sema4hacker
> By 2028, AI already performs 90% of the jobs that once required intelligent and knowledgeable humans.

Two and a half years from now? Sound VERY optimistic.

Aurornis
90% of jobs replaced by AI in 3 years? UBI in 5 years?

Why do all of these articles have completely unrealistic timeframes? This feels like someone trying their hand at the https://ai-2027.com/ project, which was based on some mathematically flimsy models that models that have been widely debunked.

sonofhans
You know, for many decades — centuries, even — people have had ideas like you had here, mandarwagh. You extrapolate ideas into the future, think really hard about it, and try to lay out a compelling vision.

Typically people also wrap character and whatnot around this skeleton and call it a “science fiction short story.” That also requires that you justify parts of the narrative, though, otherwise people might claim that what you’re writing is unrealistic.

jmfldn
A fun read, but wildly implausible. Perhaps there are other frontier technologies out there that get us even a fraction of this. But if we're talking this time horizon, I assume we mean LLMs or some other related thing? Are you joking?
BirAdam
This presumes quite a bit. As it stands, AGI has not been achieved, and this article is claiming that, by 2028, 90% of all knowledge-worker jobs will be done by an AI system.

Even were that to happen, it is unlikely that a UBI would be put in place, or if it were, that it would be successful. An Ouroboros of taxing owners to pay the public who buy from the owners wouldn't be successful. The reality is that were all workers to be replaced by AI, the economy would collapse. Then, the owners of the systems would be forced to liquidate their assets, the prices on GPUs would crater, and the AI means of production would be redistributed among the hands of the public. Then, small models would be driving productivity in the new wave of startups following the crash. This pattern could repeat many times.

politelemon
Is the "No blog post specified." a satirical commentary on the situation?