That must have been a long time back. Having lived through the time when web pages were served through CGI and mobile phones only existed in movies, when SVMs where the new hotness in ML and people would write about how weird NNs were, I feel like I've seen a lot more concrete progress in the last few decades than this year.
This year honestly feels quite stagnant. LLMs are literally technology that can only reproduce the past. They're cool, but they were way cooler 4 years ago. We've taken big ideas like "agents" and "reinforcement learning" and basically stripped them of all meaning in order to claim progress.
I mean, do you remember Geoffrey Hinton's RBM talk at Google in 2010? [0] That was absolutely insane for anyone keeping up with that field. By the mid-twenty teens RBMs were already outdated. I remember when everyone was implementing flavors of RNNs and LSTMs. Karpathy's character 2015 RNN project was insane [1].
This comment makes me wonder if part of the hype around LLMs is just that a lot of software people simply weren't paying attention to the absolutely mind-blowing progress we've seen in this field for the last 20 years. But even ignoring ML, the world's of web development and mobile application development have gone through incredible progress over the last decade and a half. I remember a time when JavaScript books would have a section warning that you should never use JS for anything critical to the application. Then there's the work in theorem provers over the last decade... If you remember when syntactic sugar was progress, either you remember way further back than I do, or you weren't paying attention to what was happening in the larger computing world.
MCP or skills? Can a skill negate the need for MCP. In addition there was a YC startup who is looking at searching docs for LLMs or similar. I think MCP may be less needed once you have skills, openapi specs, and other things that LLMs can call directly.
MCP isn't going anywhere. Some developers can't seem to see past their terminal or dev environment when it comes to MCP. Skills, etc do not replace MCP and MCP is far more than just documentation searching.
MCP is a great way for an LLM to connect to an external system in a standardized way and immediately understand what tools it has available, when and how to use them, what their inputs and outputs are,etc.
For example, we built a custom MCP server for our CRM. Now our voice and chat agents that run on elevenlabs infrastructure can connect to our system with one endpoint, understand what actions it can take, and what information it needs to collect from the user to perform those actions.
I guess this could maybe be done with webhooks or an API spec with a well crafted prompt? Or if eleven labs provided an executable environment with tool calling? But at some point you're just reinventing a lot of the functionality you get for free from MCP, and all major LLMs seem to know how to use MCP already.
For connecting agents to third-party systems I prefer CLI tools, less context bloat and faster. You can define the CLI usage in your agent instructions. If the MCP you're using doesn't exist as a CLI, build one with your agent.
> The year of YOLO and the Normalization of Deviance #
On this including AI agents deleting home folders, I was able to run agents in Firejail by isolating vscode (Most of my agents are vscode based ones, like Kilo Code).
Took a bit of tweaking, vscode crashing a bunch of times with not being able to read its config files, but I got there in the end. Now it can only write to my projects folder. All of my projects are backed up in git.
I have a bunch of tabs opened on this exact topic, so thank you for sharing. So far I've been using devcontainers w/ vscode, and mostly having a blast with it. It is a bit awkward since some extensions need to be installed in the remote env, but they seem to play nicely after you have it setup, and the keys and stuff get populated so things like kilocode, cline, roo work fine.
I'm curious how all of the progress will be seen if it does indeed result in mass unemployment (but not eradication) of professional software engineers.
The ability to accurately describe what you want with all constraints managed and with proactive design is the actual skill. Not programming. The day PMs can do that and have LLMs that can code to that, is the day software engineers en masse will disappear. But that day is likely never.
The non-technical people I've ever worked for were hopelessly terrible at attention to detail. They're hiring me primarily for that anyway.
Even if it will make software engineering drastically more productive, it’s questionable that this will lead to unemployment. Efficiency gains translate to lower prices. Sometimes this leads to very few additional demand, as can be seen with masses of typesetters that lost their jobs. Sometimes this leads to a dramatically higher demand like you can see in the classic Jevons paradox examples of coal and light bulbs. I highly suspect software falls in the latter category
This overly discussed thesis is already laughable - decent LLMs have been out for 3 years now and unemployment (using US as example) is up around 1% over the same time frame - and even attributing that small percentage change completely to AI is also laughable
You’re absolutely right! You astutely observed that 2025 was a year with many LLMs and this was a selection of waypoints, summarized in a helpful timeline.
That’s what most non-tech-person’s year in LLMs looked like.
Hopefully 2026 will be the year where companies realize that implementing intrusive chatbots can’t make better ::waving hands:: ya know… UX or whatever.
For some reason, they think its helpful to distractingly pop up chat windows on their site because their customers need textual kindergarten handholding to … I don’t know… find the ideal pocket comb for their unique pocket/hair situation, or had an unlikely question about that aerosol pan release spray that a chatbot could actually answer. Well, my dog also thinks she’s helping me by attacking the vacuum when I’m trying to clean. Both ideas are equally valid.
And spending a bazillion dollars implementing it doesn’t mean your customers won’t hate it. And forcing your customers into pathways they hate because of your sunk costs mindset means it will never stop costing you more money than it makes.
I just hope companies start being honest with themselves about whether or not these things are good, bad, or absolutely abysmal for the customer experience and cut their losses when it makes sense.
I took the good with the bad: the ai assisted coding tools are a multiplier, google ai overviews in search results are half baked (at best) and often just factually wrong. AI was put in the instagram search bar for no practical purpose etc.
Yeah totally. The point I’m trying to make, however, is that most people don’t code, so they didn’t get the multiplier, and only got the mediocre-to-bad, with a handful of them doing things like generating dumb images for a boost. I think that’s why a lot of people in the software business are utterly bewildered when customers aren’t jumping for joy when they release a new AI “feature.” I think a lot of what gets classified as cynical ceo enshittification is really people ignoring basic good design practices, like making sure you’re effectively helping customers solve an actual problem in a context and with methods they, at least, don’t hate. Especially on the smaller scale, like indie app developers who probably get more out of AI than most, they really think people are going to like new AI features simply because they’re new AI features. They’re very wrong.
Nothing about the severe impact on the environment, and the hand waviness about water usage hurt to read. The referenced post was missing every single point about the issue by making it global instead of local. And as if data center buildouts are properly planned and dimensioned for existing infrastructure…
Add to this that all the hardware is already old and the amount of waste we’re producing right now is mind boggling, and for what, fun tools for the use of one?
I don’t live in the US, but the amount of tax money being siphoned to a few tech bros should have heads rolling and I really don’t want to see it happening in Europe.
But I guess we got a new version number on a few models and some blown up benchmarks so that’s good, oh and of course the svg images we will never use for anything.
Many people feel threatened by the rapid advancements in LLMs, fearing that their skills may become obsolete, and in turn act irrationally. To navigate this change effectively, we must keep open minds, keep adaptable, and embrace continuous learning.
The internet and smartphones were immediately useful in a million different ways for almost every person. AI is not even close to that level. Very to somewhat useful in some fields (like programming) but the average person will easily be able to go through their day without using AI.
The most wide-appeal possibility is people loving 100%-AI-slop entertainment like that AI Instagram Reels product. Maybe I'm just too disconnected with normies but I don't see this taking off. Fun as a novelty like those Ring cam vids but I would never spend all day watching AI generated media.
The idea of HN being dismissive of impactful technology is as old as HN. And indeed, the crowd often appears stuck in the past with hindsight. That said, HN discussions aren't homogeneous, and as demonstrated by Karpathy in his recent blogpost "Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News", at least some commenters have impressive foresight: https://karpathy.bearblog.dev/auto-grade-hn/
> I don't understand why Hacker News is so dismissive about the coming of LLMs
I find LLMs incredibly useful, but if you were following along the last few years the promise was for “exponential progress” with a teaser world destroying super intelligence.
We objectively are not on that path. There is no “coming of LLMs”. We might get some incremental improvement, but we’re very clearly seeing sigmoid progress.
I can’t speak for everyone, but I’m tired of hyperbolic rants that are unquestionably not justified (the nice thing about exponential progress is you don’t need to argue about it)
LLMs hold some real utility. But that real utility is buried under a mountain of fake hype and over-promises to keep shareholder value high.
LLMs have real limitations that aren't going away any time soon - not until we move to a new technology fundamentally different and separate from them - sharing almost nothing in common. There's a lot of 'progress-washing' going on where people claim that these shortfalls will magically disappear if we throw enough data and compute at it when they clearly will not.
Speaking for myself: because if the hype were to be believed we should have no relational databases when there's MongoDB, no need for dollars when there's cryptocoins, all virtual goods would be exclusively sold as NFTs, and we would be all driving self-driving cars by now.
LLMs are being driven mostly by grifters trying to achieve a monopoly before they run out of cash. Under those conditions I find their promises hard to believe. I'll wait until they either go broke or stop losing money left and right, and whatever is left is probably actually useful.
It is an over correction because of all the empty promises of LLMs. I use Claude and chatgpt daily at work and am amazed at what they can do and how far they can come.
BUT when I hear my executive team talk and see demos of "Agentforce" and every saas company becoming an AI company promising the world, I have to roll my eyes.
The challenge I have with LLMs is they are great at creating first draft shiny objects and the LLMs themselves over promise. I am handed half baked work created by non technical people that now I have to clean up. And they don't realize how much work it is to take something from a 60% solution to a 100% solution because it was so easy for them to get to the 60%.
Amazing, game changing tools in the right hands but also give people false confidence.
Not that they are not also useful for non-technical people but I have had to spend a ton of time explaining to copywriters on the marketing team that they shouldn't paste their credentials into the chat even if it tells them to and their vibe coded app is a security nightmare.
> I don't understand why Hacker News is so dismissive about the coming of LLMs.
Eh. I wouldn’t be so quick to speak for the entirety of HN. Several articles related to LLMs easily hit the front page every single day, so clearly there are plenty of HN users upvoting them.
I think you're just reading too much into what is more likely classic HN cynicism and/or fatigue.
Based on quite a few comments recently, it also looks like many have tried LLMs in the past, but haven't seriously revisited either the modern or more expensive models. And I get it. Not everyone wants to keep up to date every month, or burn cash on experiments. But at the same time, people seem to have opinions formed in 2024. (Especially if they talk about just hallucinations and broken code - tell the agent to search for docs and fix stuff) I'd really like to give them Opus 4.5 as an agent to refresh their views. There's lots to complain about, but the world has moved on significantly.
It’s not the technology I’m dismissive about. It’s the economics.
25 years ago I was optimistic about the internet, web sites, video streaming, online social systems. All of that. Look at what we have now. It was a fun ride until it all ended up “enshitified”. And it will happen to LLMs, too. Fool me once.
Some developer tools might survive in a useful state on subscriptions. But soon enough the whole A.I. economy will centralise into 2 or 3 major players extracting more and more revenue over time until everyone is sick of them. In fact, this process seems to be happening at a pretty high speed.
Once the users are captured, they’ll orient the ad-spend market around themselves. And then they’ll start taking advantage of the advertisers.
I really hope it doesn’t turn out this way. But it’s hard to be optimistic.
The negatives outweigh the positives, if only because the positives are so small. A bunch of coders making their lives easier doesn't really matter, but pupils and students skipping education does. As a meme said: you had better start eating healthy, because your future doctor vibed his way through med school.
Education part is on point and as a CS student that sees many of his colleagues using way too much the AI tools for instant homework solving without even processing the answers much.
It feels like there are several conversations happening that sound the same but are actually quite different.
One of them is whether or not large models are useful and/or becoming more useful over time. (To me, clearly the answer is yes)
The other is whether or not they live up to the hype. (To me, clearly the answer is no)
There are other skirmishes around capability for novelty, their role in the economy, their impact on human cognition, if/when AGI might happen and the overall impact to the largely tech-oriented community on HN.
I can’t get over the range of sentiment on LLMs. HN leans snake oil, X leans “we’re all cooked” —- can it possibly be both? How do other folks make sense of this? I’m not asking for a side, rather understanding the range. Does the range lead you to believe X over Y?
Speaking of new year and AI: my phone just suggested "Happy Birthday!" as the quick-reply to any "Happy New Year!" notification I got in the last hours.
This is a good tooling survey of the past year. I have been watching it as a developer re-entering the job market. The job descriptions closely parallel the timeline used in the post. That's bizarre to me because these approaches are changing so fast. I see jobs for "Skill and Langchain experts with production-grade 0>1 experience. Former founders preferred". That is an expertise that is just a few months old and startups are trying to build whole teams overnight with it. I'm sure January and February will have job postings for whatever gets released that week. It's all so many sand castles.
I hope 2026 will be the year when software engineers and recruiters will stop the obsession with leetcode and all other forms of competitive programming bullshit
AI slop videos will no doubt get longer and "more realistic" in 2026.
I really hope social media companies plaster a prominent banner over them which screams, "Likely/Made by AI" and give us the option to automatically mute these videos from our timeline. That would be the responsible thing to do. But I can't see Alphabet doing that on YT, xAI doing that on X or Meta doing that on FB/Insta as they all have skin in the video gen game.
100 comments
[ 3.0 ms ] story [ 92.4 ms ] threadThis year honestly feels quite stagnant. LLMs are literally technology that can only reproduce the past. They're cool, but they were way cooler 4 years ago. We've taken big ideas like "agents" and "reinforcement learning" and basically stripped them of all meaning in order to claim progress.
I mean, do you remember Geoffrey Hinton's RBM talk at Google in 2010? [0] That was absolutely insane for anyone keeping up with that field. By the mid-twenty teens RBMs were already outdated. I remember when everyone was implementing flavors of RNNs and LSTMs. Karpathy's character 2015 RNN project was insane [1].
This comment makes me wonder if part of the hype around LLMs is just that a lot of software people simply weren't paying attention to the absolutely mind-blowing progress we've seen in this field for the last 20 years. But even ignoring ML, the world's of web development and mobile application development have gone through incredible progress over the last decade and a half. I remember a time when JavaScript books would have a section warning that you should never use JS for anything critical to the application. Then there's the work in theorem provers over the last decade... If you remember when syntactic sugar was progress, either you remember way further back than I do, or you weren't paying attention to what was happening in the larger computing world.
0. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdIURAu1-aU
1. https://karpathy.github.io/2015/05/21/rnn-effectiveness/
...and the best of them all, OpenCode[1] :)
[1]: https://opencode.ai
I like to believe, but MCP is quickly turning into an enterprise thing so I think it will stick around for good.
MCP is a great way for an LLM to connect to an external system in a standardized way and immediately understand what tools it has available, when and how to use them, what their inputs and outputs are,etc.
For example, we built a custom MCP server for our CRM. Now our voice and chat agents that run on elevenlabs infrastructure can connect to our system with one endpoint, understand what actions it can take, and what information it needs to collect from the user to perform those actions.
I guess this could maybe be done with webhooks or an API spec with a well crafted prompt? Or if eleven labs provided an executable environment with tool calling? But at some point you're just reinventing a lot of the functionality you get for free from MCP, and all major LLMs seem to know how to use MCP already.
We want curious conversation here.
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
I want LLM astroturfers to have their reputations destroyed for pushing this idiocy on us
That's how you know you're on the right track
These fuckers have their pants down, don't let them trick you out of leaving your mark.
On this including AI agents deleting home folders, I was able to run agents in Firejail by isolating vscode (Most of my agents are vscode based ones, like Kilo Code).
I wrote a little guide on how I did it https://softwareengineeringstandard.com/2025/12/15/ai-agents...
Took a bit of tweaking, vscode crashing a bunch of times with not being able to read its config files, but I got there in the end. Now it can only write to my projects folder. All of my projects are backed up in git.
Will 2026 fare better?
The ability to accurately describe what you want with all constraints managed and with proactive design is the actual skill. Not programming. The day PMs can do that and have LLMs that can code to that, is the day software engineers en masse will disappear. But that day is likely never.
The non-technical people I've ever worked for were hopelessly terrible at attention to detail. They're hiring me primarily for that anyway.
That’s what most non-tech-person’s year in LLMs looked like.
Hopefully 2026 will be the year where companies realize that implementing intrusive chatbots can’t make better ::waving hands:: ya know… UX or whatever.
For some reason, they think its helpful to distractingly pop up chat windows on their site because their customers need textual kindergarten handholding to … I don’t know… find the ideal pocket comb for their unique pocket/hair situation, or had an unlikely question about that aerosol pan release spray that a chatbot could actually answer. Well, my dog also thinks she’s helping me by attacking the vacuum when I’m trying to clean. Both ideas are equally valid.
And spending a bazillion dollars implementing it doesn’t mean your customers won’t hate it. And forcing your customers into pathways they hate because of your sunk costs mindset means it will never stop costing you more money than it makes.
I just hope companies start being honest with themselves about whether or not these things are good, bad, or absolutely abysmal for the customer experience and cut their losses when it makes sense.
do not acknowledge that everyone in the world thinks this shit is a complete and total garbage fire
Add to this that all the hardware is already old and the amount of waste we’re producing right now is mind boggling, and for what, fun tools for the use of one?
I don’t live in the US, but the amount of tax money being siphoned to a few tech bros should have heads rolling and I really don’t want to see it happening in Europe.
But I guess we got a new version number on a few models and some blown up benchmarks so that’s good, oh and of course the svg images we will never use for anything.
not AI’s highlights.
Easy with the hot take.
But LLM is certainly a game changer, I can see it delivering impact bigger than the internet itself. Both require a lot of investments.
The most wide-appeal possibility is people loving 100%-AI-slop entertainment like that AI Instagram Reels product. Maybe I'm just too disconnected with normies but I don't see this taking off. Fun as a novelty like those Ring cam vids but I would never spend all day watching AI generated media.
I find LLMs incredibly useful, but if you were following along the last few years the promise was for “exponential progress” with a teaser world destroying super intelligence.
We objectively are not on that path. There is no “coming of LLMs”. We might get some incremental improvement, but we’re very clearly seeing sigmoid progress.
I can’t speak for everyone, but I’m tired of hyperbolic rants that are unquestionably not justified (the nice thing about exponential progress is you don’t need to argue about it)
LLMs have real limitations that aren't going away any time soon - not until we move to a new technology fundamentally different and separate from them - sharing almost nothing in common. There's a lot of 'progress-washing' going on where people claim that these shortfalls will magically disappear if we throw enough data and compute at it when they clearly will not.
LLMs are being driven mostly by grifters trying to achieve a monopoly before they run out of cash. Under those conditions I find their promises hard to believe. I'll wait until they either go broke or stop losing money left and right, and whatever is left is probably actually useful.
BUT when I hear my executive team talk and see demos of "Agentforce" and every saas company becoming an AI company promising the world, I have to roll my eyes.
The challenge I have with LLMs is they are great at creating first draft shiny objects and the LLMs themselves over promise. I am handed half baked work created by non technical people that now I have to clean up. And they don't realize how much work it is to take something from a 60% solution to a 100% solution because it was so easy for them to get to the 60%.
Amazing, game changing tools in the right hands but also give people false confidence.
Not that they are not also useful for non-technical people but I have had to spend a ton of time explaining to copywriters on the marketing team that they shouldn't paste their credentials into the chat even if it tells them to and their vibe coded app is a security nightmare.
Eh. I wouldn’t be so quick to speak for the entirety of HN. Several articles related to LLMs easily hit the front page every single day, so clearly there are plenty of HN users upvoting them.
I think you're just reading too much into what is more likely classic HN cynicism and/or fatigue.
Lol. It's worse than nothing at all.
25 years ago I was optimistic about the internet, web sites, video streaming, online social systems. All of that. Look at what we have now. It was a fun ride until it all ended up “enshitified”. And it will happen to LLMs, too. Fool me once.
Some developer tools might survive in a useful state on subscriptions. But soon enough the whole A.I. economy will centralise into 2 or 3 major players extracting more and more revenue over time until everyone is sick of them. In fact, this process seems to be happening at a pretty high speed.
Once the users are captured, they’ll orient the ad-spend market around themselves. And then they’ll start taking advantage of the advertisers.
I really hope it doesn’t turn out this way. But it’s hard to be optimistic.
Education part is on point and as a CS student that sees many of his colleagues using way too much the AI tools for instant homework solving without even processing the answers much.
One of them is whether or not large models are useful and/or becoming more useful over time. (To me, clearly the answer is yes)
The other is whether or not they live up to the hype. (To me, clearly the answer is no)
There are other skirmishes around capability for novelty, their role in the economy, their impact on human cognition, if/when AGI might happen and the overall impact to the largely tech-oriented community on HN.
So we are just irrational and sour?
lol.... Just make sure you screenshot your post so you have a good reminder in a few years re. your predictive ability.
I'm not too worried about my job just yet.
If you don't make software developers prove their literacy you will get burned.
AI slop videos will no doubt get longer and "more realistic" in 2026.
I really hope social media companies plaster a prominent banner over them which screams, "Likely/Made by AI" and give us the option to automatically mute these videos from our timeline. That would be the responsible thing to do. But I can't see Alphabet doing that on YT, xAI doing that on X or Meta doing that on FB/Insta as they all have skin in the video gen game.