Insider trading is a feature, not a bug, say Shayne and Tarek, stupidly.
You can't have this amount of obvious manipulation and expect the average retail consumer to join. Same reason why there hasn't been mass consumer adoption of crypto. People just don't feel safe.
I have to imagine governments are closely monitoring prediction markets as part of their intelligence apparatus. But then you just add another layer of subterfuge. Imagine a D-Day prediction market... "Will the Allies Land in Normandy, Pas-de-Calais, or somewhere else?" The US might buy a major position on Pas-de-Calais the night before as a decoy!
Note the lack of links and that all of these Maduro reports originate from X which is rampant with polymarket grifters claiming secret insights into how the big bets are made.
Perhaps somebody here can provide a Polymarket link (not screenshots) to the proof?
I'm not saying the BBC has been scammed here but the only link I've found to the alleged account 404s. Perhaps its been taken down by Polymarket?
Anyway for anybody new to this, even if this checks out please - as ever - be cautious about the claims of easy money.
This is such a small amount that either this is one of many accounts the user made in order to mask said activity or this was just a lucky bet (people make stupid lucky bets on hunches all the time).
Imagine the massive value of having such a world changing event in advance (the search volume alone probably affected an order of magnitude more in online advertising revenue at least). $430k?! Are you F’ing serious?
Silicon Valley and other so-called "tech" commpanies, along with "tech journalists" and other online commentators (prognosticators) who presumably work for such companies, are a never-ending source of "predictions" (promises) that never hold true
One longstanding example is "vapourware", but the deception carried out today goes even further, IMHO
What if the non-believers and realists could use "prediction markets", in addition to short selling, to bet against them
Maybe they are already doing so, but I have not seen any examples
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[ 3.2 ms ] story [ 45.4 ms ] threadCrime is legal.
You shouldn't be surprised though, name any market, all markets are full of manipulation and insiders.
But it's obviously also ripe for abuse. Any govt. employee can start trading on the side, 100% untraceable.
That said, at some point it would then be more accurate to call them reality modification bounty markets.
You can't have this amount of obvious manipulation and expect the average retail consumer to join. Same reason why there hasn't been mass consumer adoption of crypto. People just don't feel safe.
Probably won't happen actually, since they can just do blatant insider trading on the stock market instead.
This is not the stock market. There are no public reporting rules for the weather, song lyrics, what Kim Kardashian eats tomorrow.
Not nearly. If nothing else, there's still time arbitrage and at least some amount of information processing required.
Even efficient markets need somebody doing the leg work and making them so, especially when unsophisticated traders are participating too.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32790951
Not for members of the US Congress.
Note the lack of links and that all of these Maduro reports originate from X which is rampant with polymarket grifters claiming secret insights into how the big bets are made.
Perhaps somebody here can provide a Polymarket link (not screenshots) to the proof?
I'm not saying the BBC has been scammed here but the only link I've found to the alleged account 404s. Perhaps its been taken down by Polymarket?
Anyway for anybody new to this, even if this checks out please - as ever - be cautious about the claims of easy money.
Imagine the massive value of having such a world changing event in advance (the search volume alone probably affected an order of magnitude more in online advertising revenue at least). $430k?! Are you F’ing serious?
These guys arent even trying to hide their tracks anymore, and polymarket/kalshi are well aware of this
One longstanding example is "vapourware", but the deception carried out today goes even further, IMHO
What if the non-believers and realists could use "prediction markets", in addition to short selling, to bet against them
Maybe they are already doing so, but I have not seen any examples