What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018) (outlookzen.com)

(2018)

It's a shame Google doesn't let us use a log scale on that graph.

vibes

printing your currency to zero.

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>The PE ratio reflects earnings today, but the most important metric is projected future earnings.

I think the key words are "projected future". Sometimes that estimation is easy; sometimes it is much harder. New tech introduces uncertainty. Speculative entrepreneurs tell stories that multiply the uncertainty.

Idk how people write posts like this anymore. Clearly the stock market isn't rational, and prices of stocks are not tied to financial fundamentals. Stocks are essentially a deflationary alternative currency that only people with disposable income can afford. The rich (and to a smaller extent, the middle class) take the currency which devalues every year (USD) and use it to buy the currency which increases in value every year (stocks and other digital assets), and this is part of the funnel that increases the wealth of the rich at the expense of the poor and middle class. People who think valuations of stocks are tied to fundamentals are smoking medical-grade copium. I too wish that the backbone of our financial system was a not a corrupt, rigged game that benefits a small and decreasing number of people every year, but it is.

For reference when this was written in 2018, a P/E of the S&P of 24 was considered inflated. It stands at 29.34 as of now.

     "...the slowing GDP growth rate in America..."

What are they talking about?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

Passive flows. Mike Green has covered this well for a long time. Here’s a recentish interview:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WSpR770JvXg&pp=ygUYbWlrZSBncmV...

This just isn't right.

>"Time IN the markets typically beats timING the markets."

One thing I learned about logic is that if you start with a false statement, whatever comes next doesn't matter "almost all valuations and returns are driven by corporate earnings" no they are not, at least not anymore.

Inflation, financialization, price-profit spirals, and tulip bulbs.