What a favorable headline. In reality everyone knows why the economy isn’t growing: Trump’s policies are paradoxically anti business given his public persona of this big bad amazing businessman. The guy failed at selling steaks in America. In America.
I do not see the tourism industry mentioned here but I have to imagine that is a huge loss right now.
Most of the world is not visiting the US right now which means projects and planning that was made in anticipation for summer has probably been halted or heavily reduced.
I see statistics like "inbound international tourism is down 8%" but I can't tell without context if that is just a typical drop or a cataclysmic decline.
That said, I do see a lot of ads for domestic tourism to places that ordinarily would really have no need to advertise. Disney buying YouTube spots to persuade me,a US resident, to visit Florida seems remarkable. I suspect things are not rosy?
1. -92K is a drop in a bucket. It's not what moves the needle for anything here, except looking at the trends. Revisions are the big swings now and those are not something the market likes -- which is why many are calling for a quarterly or even bi annual releases.
More than 1.5 billion tourists spent $11.7 trillion on hotels, cruises and flights last year, according to the data from the World Travel and Tourism Council.
A fall of $12.5 billion is a lot but not something that will alter anything significant.
The majority of the people that are declining to travel to US are Example drops recorded:
There's a vibe in at least the PNW that feels like the tech sector is sloughing jobs and avoiding creating new ones courtesy of AI. I genuinely wonder if that feeling is backed by reality and whether it's large enough to be translating into national statistics across all industries.
I would like to know how much contraction is normal. I assume there's always some contraction around that time, because the holiday season is ending and the temp workers are being let go. I didn't see any mention of this in the article though (or I missed it).
> It marked the biggest monthly job loss since October, when the US government shut down, and came amid concerns that a jump in oil prices sparked by the US-Israel war in Iran could threaten growth.
It seems like a stretch to say anyone was pro-actively fired on the speculation that a war could break out in the middle east; so the war is probably unrelated. That said, if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for any length of time then something pretty drastic could happen to employment in the future tense.
The only people left defending the economic “policies” by the current administration are the people who are in a position to profit from all the confusion and chaos.
Add to that the people who don’t understand that they are being fleeced and who’ll continue to support theire heroes because of pride, hatred, nihilism or misinformed idealism.
There is a vocal minority in the last bracket, but I’m convinced they are being amplified by an army of bots.
Crazy thing is people will vote for this again. Some against their best interest. Others because they appreciate the divide that comes from this type of admin.
We’ve been digging ourselves a giant AI-inflated hole in the economy for months and folks have just been playing musical chairs to grab as much money as possible before the music stops.
Hard to believe it’s taken this long. I never wanted to live through the late 70s / early 80s economically but I guess I’ll have my chance!
I expected it. I also expect it to get revised even lower, and the gains from the last couple months to disappear.
I really wish people would realize that prolonging this farce is not in their best interests. The energy potential of the inevitable blowback just keeps building.
But seriously, antagonizing all of your trading partners and visitors so that tourism dies, your booze industry gets severely wounded, and making things expensive so the world's most efficient kleptocracy can keep feeding itself has some consequences, I guess.
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[ 7.1 ms ] story [ 92.0 ms ] threadMost of the world is not visiting the US right now which means projects and planning that was made in anticipation for summer has probably been halted or heavily reduced.
That said, I do see a lot of ads for domestic tourism to places that ordinarily would really have no need to advertise. Disney buying YouTube spots to persuade me,a US resident, to visit Florida seems remarkable. I suspect things are not rosy?
2. International Tourism in the US is not that big. Total international visits were expected to fall from 72.4 million (2024) to about 67.9 million (2025). https://www.ustravel.org/press/us-travel-forecast-2025-modes... So visitors to the U.S. dropped about 6% in 2025. I've seen some crazy numbers in this chat. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fewer-foreigners-visited-us...
More than 1.5 billion tourists spent $11.7 trillion on hotels, cruises and flights last year, according to the data from the World Travel and Tourism Council.
A fall of $12.5 billion is a lot but not something that will alter anything significant.
The majority of the people that are declining to travel to US are Example drops recorded:
Germany: ↓ 28% Spain: ↓ 25% UK: ↓ 18% Canada: ↓ 17% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_the_United_States
3. Some states and some countries are going the opposite (Argentina, Israel, two examples). https://skift.com/2025/12/29/us-international-travel-which-s...
4 .There is an offset by Americans traveling inside the US as well. https://www.thetravel.com/how-and-why-us-international-touri...
Overall, this is a small macro impact.
Let's raise tariffs again.
It seems like a stretch to say anyone was pro-actively fired on the speculation that a war could break out in the middle east; so the war is probably unrelated. That said, if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for any length of time then something pretty drastic could happen to employment in the future tense.
Add to that the people who don’t understand that they are being fleeced and who’ll continue to support theire heroes because of pride, hatred, nihilism or misinformed idealism.
There is a vocal minority in the last bracket, but I’m convinced they are being amplified by an army of bots.
'normal part of the business cycle'
It is not a bad one. You can definitely argue it both ways.
I personally think there is a lot of self-inflicted pain ahead and position portfolio accordingly.
We’ve been digging ourselves a giant AI-inflated hole in the economy for months and folks have just been playing musical chairs to grab as much money as possible before the music stops.
Hard to believe it’s taken this long. I never wanted to live through the late 70s / early 80s economically but I guess I’ll have my chance!
I really wish people would realize that prolonging this farce is not in their best interests. The energy potential of the inevitable blowback just keeps building.
But seriously, antagonizing all of your trading partners and visitors so that tourism dies, your booze industry gets severely wounded, and making things expensive so the world's most efficient kleptocracy can keep feeding itself has some consequences, I guess.