All of the other markets are prediction markets too, in terms of opportunities to profit from inside knowledge. This is like vowing to quit smoking ... Marlboros.
good. and the restriction shouldn’t stop at U.S. Senators. anyone with a major influence in their field should be banned from using these prediction/betting apps. as an NBA fan, I was shocked when I saw the reports about Milwaukee star Giannis allegedly using Kalshi to “predict” his own future team during the last NBA trade deadline. how is that even allowed? he even went on to promote the prediction app the day after the trade deadline.
Any lawyers able to comment on the actual wording of the resolution? It kind of reads to me like in their effort to narrowly capture just prediction markets like Kalshi but not stock markets, they've perhaps unintentionally barred themselves from some other unintended things, too.
>No Member of the Senate may enter into, or
offer to enter into, an agreement, contract, or transaction
that provides for any purchase, sale, payment, or delivery
that is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the
extent of the occurrence of a specific event.
Kind of seems like Senators would now be barred from like getting home or life insurance and certain kinds of casino gambling. Or like, making an offer on a home that is rescindable upon a failed inspection?
Prediction markets have realized that they will lose potential customers if they don't prevent insider trading. Kalshi already has a policy banning politicians from trading. Presumably they understand this, so while I'm glad to see the rule, I wouldn't say it's that self-sacrificing.
We've learned that these tools are only as effective as the tools of enforcement. A valid technique now available to us is to ban some activity that has valuable returns, then participate in it nonetheless, and simply not enforce action except against those of an opposing tribe. Presumably, violations of this ban simply lead to a hearing before an ethics committee staffed to lean towards the appropriate direction?
Still, it is something. Some chilling effect is better than none. While we do this, it is worthwhile to make prediction markets accessible to our opponents. Ideally, those in corrupt countries aligned against us should be leaking as much information through the markets to us and we should enrich them for it. I'd love to have this kind of distributed espionage with the largest number of bets being on the actions of those aligned against us.
So they can vote themselves out to do the right thing, and they purposefully allowing themselves to invest in the stock market with insider information. My cynicism tells me they are throwing this bone to divert attention from the stock market loophole
I just can't understand how this prevents, say, the son
-in-law of the president (totally unelected) going to negotiate for peace in Iran, while his brother in law is on the board of Polymarket and a strategic advisor to Kalshi.
This is going to ruin interesting conversations at their holiday dinners!
- Term limits (2 consecutive terms max)
- No stock market participation in any form during office
- No corporate or PAC contributions
- Prison for lying to the public or during the course of their work (hearings, media, etc.)
- Serious legal consequences for defamation or libel
- No special medical/healthcare insurance, accounts or treatment
- Pensions only bases on their own contributions, nothing else
- No lifetime pensions or healthcare
- This one is tough: Consequences for campaign promises not met (part of no lies)
- Consequences for shutting down government
- Serious consequences for not balancing the budget or driving meaningful reductions that will result in a balanced budget in short order
- No media-related jobs for five years after leaving office
- No book deals for five years after leaving office
- No movie deals for five years after leaving office
- No fancy office anything that costs more than your average Ikea/Walmart office furniture
- Severe consequences for illicit enrichment; a bartender cannot come out of Congress a multi-millionaire, period.
In other words, like any real job by average citizens. They should not be a privileged and protected class.
Politicians enjoy a pile of benefits and privileges that the average citizen has no access to at all.
Simple example: They can lie to you and suffer no consequences. If you lie to them, even a minor lie, you can end up with serious criminal charges.
You took the list as literally applying to average citizens.
You took this part:
"In other words, like any real job by average citizens."
and completely ignored the next sentence:
"They should not be a privileged and protected class."
That's the point.
They are supposed to work for us and represent us, and yet they fly far above us at so many levels it is incredible. This is what students should be demonstrating about. It is destructive and equally corrupt regardless of political party.
In other words, it should be a universal truth (no party exceptions) that politicians should not exist as a class above those who elect them. Simple examples are health insurance, consequences for lies, fully paid lifetime benefits and pensions, etc. This is wrong.
The real with prediction markets problem is that people can make bets, then alter outcomes to match those bets. This is a well-known issue in sports betting (e.g. taking a fall), and I don't see how we're going to prevent it for things that matter a whole lot more than sports.
Also, a bet in these markets can be used to alter outcomes. That problem is caused by journalists reporting on market activity. It is treated (or percieved by readers) as if it reflects popular sentiment. Not only is it possible, it's actually relatively cheap to do things like corner the market, which in some cases is a lot less expensive than, say, a national TV ad campaign or running a scientific poll. Link to an older article: https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/dont-trust-the-politi...
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>No Member of the Senate may enter into, or offer to enter into, an agreement, contract, or transaction that provides for any purchase, sale, payment, or delivery that is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of a specific event.
Kind of seems like Senators would now be barred from like getting home or life insurance and certain kinds of casino gambling. Or like, making an offer on a home that is rescindable upon a failed inspection?
Maybe they didn't need more uncertainty in their portfolios.
Still, it is something. Some chilling effect is better than none. While we do this, it is worthwhile to make prediction markets accessible to our opponents. Ideally, those in corrupt countries aligned against us should be leaking as much information through the markets to us and we should enrich them for it. I'd love to have this kind of distributed espionage with the largest number of bets being on the actions of those aligned against us.
This is going to ruin interesting conversations at their holiday dinners!
Both for Senators and Representatives:
- Term limits (2 consecutive terms max) - No stock market participation in any form during office - No corporate or PAC contributions - Prison for lying to the public or during the course of their work (hearings, media, etc.) - Serious legal consequences for defamation or libel - No special medical/healthcare insurance, accounts or treatment - Pensions only bases on their own contributions, nothing else - No lifetime pensions or healthcare - This one is tough: Consequences for campaign promises not met (part of no lies) - Consequences for shutting down government - Serious consequences for not balancing the budget or driving meaningful reductions that will result in a balanced budget in short order - No media-related jobs for five years after leaving office - No book deals for five years after leaving office - No movie deals for five years after leaving office - No fancy office anything that costs more than your average Ikea/Walmart office furniture - Severe consequences for illicit enrichment; a bartender cannot come out of Congress a multi-millionaire, period.
In other words, like any real job by average citizens. They should not be a privileged and protected class.
Politicians enjoy a pile of benefits and privileges that the average citizen has no access to at all.
Simple example: They can lie to you and suffer no consequences. If you lie to them, even a minor lie, you can end up with serious criminal charges.
You took the list as literally applying to average citizens.
You took this part:
"In other words, like any real job by average citizens."
and completely ignored the next sentence:
"They should not be a privileged and protected class."
That's the point.
They are supposed to work for us and represent us, and yet they fly far above us at so many levels it is incredible. This is what students should be demonstrating about. It is destructive and equally corrupt regardless of political party.
In other words, it should be a universal truth (no party exceptions) that politicians should not exist as a class above those who elect them. Simple examples are health insurance, consequences for lies, fully paid lifetime benefits and pensions, etc. This is wrong.
Are senators not allow to buy any commodities futures now (it reads like it)?
¹I, and I think most reasonable people, think this is ridiculous - it’s obviously gambling in a trenchcoat, but that’s what they claim…