As much as I hate the source of the tariff policies, from an uneducated outsider PoV, they do seem to be causing fewer dollars to leave the country in imports.
How does it feel from an insider perspective? Are the increased costs on imported items and dependent services worth it for a bit more local investment?
Might cause fewer dollars to enter the country too. Closed doors block both directions. Other countries are watching and responding in kind. Maybe not that much at first out of fear of retaliation but builds up momentum.
If it had been done with coordinated investment/lending from the government to spur domestic production it’d be a very good move. The economy is stalling (outside of tech) because there is no money for increased production domestically.
No company can plan based on the tariffs. There is zero guarantee that then next government won't revoked them or that the current one won't flip-flop. Local manufacturing doesn't swing on a 2-4 (or 6 or 8) year timescale. There needs to be consistency.
The company that moves (or starts) manufacturing here today might get run out of business when/if tariffs are repealed and their competitor already has production lines in other countries ready to go. Heck, the factory might not even open before the winds shift.
No one can accurately plan with the uncertainty.
All the big names like Apple are just paying lip service to this. They are throwing, quite literally, pocket change or funds from the government (like CHIPS, which was less ham-fisted than the tariffs IMHO but still not something that's going to change the landscape overnight) at these endeavours to appease the current admin in favor of reduced/removed tariffs on _their_ products and good PR.
If congress wanted to actually do their jobs instead of both them and the judiciary abdicating their responsibility to the executive branch then _maybe_ we'd have a chance in hell. Until then you can look forward to more flip-flopping as the government changes and the smaller companies continuing to be ground under the heel of large corporations who can weather (or bribe) their way out of the tariffs.
What's the received wisdom for the USA to (re)build it's own chip supply chain? I dimly recall $500b, 30 years, invest in domestic educational pipeline.
I'm 100% on board with federal industrial policy, public-private partnership, etc. So while I favor the idea of CHIPS act, I have no idea what's realistic.
(And it kinda pisses me off that Intel shunts taxpayer money to their investors. Seems like they don't even want to succeed.)
The tariffs haven't made any difference in the trade deficit. There was a large peak just before the tariffs went into effect but since then the deficit has been largely the same as it was before the tariffs.
The tariffs have been highly destructive to local manufacturing because in the US we mostly build complex things made out of simpler parts which we import. The cost of everything we build simply increased and as a result many businesses selling relatively higher margin, higher complexity products had to scale back or shut down.
More to the point, the notion that dollars leaving the country is a real problem is really a kind of primitive understanding of money. Dollars are something we control. If dollars leave the country, that means there is demand for dollars. We control the supply of dollars. We literally can’t lose, so long as people are still using the USD, which they’re less inclined to when we’re tariffing their exports.
The biggest problem with the tariff policy is not the cost or even the uncertainty, it's the corruption. A single person should not have the power to dictate the terms of trade, because the rational play in such a system is for businesses that rely on trade to pander to that person, and that's corrupt.
Putting aside the lack of evidence that tariffs meaningfully reduced the US trade deficit as other posts here remarked, reduction of the deficit would be catastrophic for the USD based global financial system anyway so it's bad for the US and bad for the world.
Dollars can only be created in the US by the Federal Reserve or US banks. Since the USD is the currency in which most global trade is conducted, the US MUST provide USD liquidity to the rest of the world that they can exchange between one another and the US (cf. Triffin Dilemma). If the rest of the world has no dollars, e.g. an Indonesian company cannot sell goods to an Ecuadorian company settled in USD.
The benefits of this system to the US are enormous (cf. Exorbitant Privilege) since US can print dollars out of thin air and 'give away' these bytes in a database and receive real goods in exchange. Real goods that people spent energy and expended labor for, in exchange for bytes in a DB.
If the US stopped supplying dollars to the rest of the world, it'd first spark a massive financial crisis as companies that owe USD to one another default in a chain reaction. Afterwards, an alternate to the USD would emerge as 'hard money that everyone accepts'. Candidates for this currently are limited in the space of fiat, Europe and China are net exporters so they cannot supply EUR/CNY to the rest of the world in net just like a US with trade surpluses cannot. Possibly there could be a return to precious metal backed currencies. But in any case, in such an environment, US could no longer receive goods 'for free' in exchange for bytes in a database and its life standards would greatly suffer.
The tariffs have done nothing to improve the budget deficit (not even worth mentioning the debt) and consumer prices are higher than ever. We’ve seen no benefits.
Tariffs are in every way inferior to the prior administration's CHIPS act and IRA, which are in the process of being destroyed merely because they had bipartisan support.
For some recent data, see the diagram "Semiconductor foundry capacity 8" & 12" - by foundry location (in %)" at [1] for a rough idea of kWpm (thousand 300mm equivalent wafer starts per month) for key countries/regions for 2024, 2025 and prediction for 2031. China and ROK are predicted in this report to have the largest overall market share increases to 2031.
For some more detailed data (hard to find it publicly available), also see the OECD report at [2], particularly pages 18 and 20 (as numbered). This report provides a breakdown of ~2024-2025 per-country/per-region capacity by chip type (power, analog, speciality memory, commodity memory, advanced logic, mature logic) and a prediction for pre-country/per-region upcoming capacity increases by chip type.
There are markets within markets of course. China dominates in power electronics which makes senses when you consider even just their domestic demand for electric vehicles and renewable generators. Taiwan dominates in advanced logic and exports pretty much all of it. ROK dominates in commodity memory and also exports pretty much all of it. When you compare populations of China vs. USA, the USA are/will be punching above their weight for analog and advanced logic chips, which is also where the focus of their investment is.
In categories such as power electronics and mature logic which China dominates, labour cost is much more important than categories such as advanced logic where equipment is the overwhelming cost. For this reason you'll find China (and maybe even India if they bother to get into the market) dominate these categories due to lower costs of labour. Traditional competitors in these categories such as Onsemi and STMicroelectronics have been hurting.[3]
It's hard to predict which announced/planned investments will go ahead and be impactful, for various reasons such as utilisation rates of fabs once built. But it'll be particularly and increasingly difficult to predict the future of semiconductor fabrication due to what is happening in China. China has expanded their domestic chip making equipment industry enough to mandate Chinese fabs use at least 50% Chinese equipment.[4] Over 2024 and 2025 the investment from China into chip making equipment was estimated to be 37-42% of global spend, so we're talking about 20% (or maybe higher up to 40%) of global chip making equipment spending not being readily observable.[5]
If you onshore production via tariffs while having low unemployment, you are basically forcing your population to build basic stuff despite them having better things to do.
This is somewhat justifiable with vital sectors like agriculture, but if you do this in an arbitrary way just for the sake of it you just make stuff more expensive and your workforce less productive for no gain.
Those dollars are not just vanishing abroad, you are getting actual stuff for them, and your citizens then don't have to spend their own time building it and can do something more productive instead.
> As much as I hate the source of the tariff policies, from an uneducated outsider PoV, they do seem to be causing fewer dollars to leave the country in imports.
Much has simply been replaced by nothing at all, i.e. businesses shutter rather than deal with the mess, or ride out until the midterms to see if sanity and rule of law returns at least in Congress. The only ones who actually make an effort are the big companies like Apple that for one need to stay in Trump's good graces lest he slaps them with foreign-asset crap like he did with Anthropic and OpenAI, but also need to divest from China and Taiwan for geopolitical reasons.
>Trends to utilize RF spectrum more efficiently with higher frequencies than roughly 1.5–2.5 GHz and in some cases also simultaneously with increasing RF output power have supported FBAR technology to become one of the key enabling technologies in telecommunication realisations. FBAR technology complements and in some cases competes with surface acoustic wave (SAW) technology and FBAR resonators can replace crystals in crystal oscillators and crystal filters at frequencies more than 100 MHz.
This seems to be paying lip service to creating a supply chain in the USA. These are not anything like Apple Silicon ARM chips, they are not even Wifi chips?
What is with the phrase "increase spend"? It just seems gramatically .... off. Why not say "Apple partners with Broadcom to produce billions more US chips".
42 comments
[ 1.8 ms ] story [ 53.9 ms ] threadHow does it feel from an insider perspective? Are the increased costs on imported items and dependent services worth it for a bit more local investment?
Might cause fewer dollars to enter the country too. Closed doors block both directions. Other countries are watching and responding in kind. Maybe not that much at first out of fear of retaliation but builds up momentum.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade
None of his promises ever come to fruition. Stop hoping.
The company that moves (or starts) manufacturing here today might get run out of business when/if tariffs are repealed and their competitor already has production lines in other countries ready to go. Heck, the factory might not even open before the winds shift.
No one can accurately plan with the uncertainty.
All the big names like Apple are just paying lip service to this. They are throwing, quite literally, pocket change or funds from the government (like CHIPS, which was less ham-fisted than the tariffs IMHO but still not something that's going to change the landscape overnight) at these endeavours to appease the current admin in favor of reduced/removed tariffs on _their_ products and good PR.
If congress wanted to actually do their jobs instead of both them and the judiciary abdicating their responsibility to the executive branch then _maybe_ we'd have a chance in hell. Until then you can look forward to more flip-flopping as the government changes and the smaller companies continuing to be ground under the heel of large corporations who can weather (or bribe) their way out of the tariffs.
I'm 100% on board with federal industrial policy, public-private partnership, etc. So while I favor the idea of CHIPS act, I have no idea what's realistic.
(And it kinda pisses me off that Intel shunts taxpayer money to their investors. Seems like they don't even want to succeed.)
https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-a...
Have you accounted for the dollars that are no longer re-entering the country due to boycotts or retaliatory trade policies?
More to the point, the notion that dollars leaving the country is a real problem is really a kind of primitive understanding of money. Dollars are something we control. If dollars leave the country, that means there is demand for dollars. We control the supply of dollars. We literally can’t lose, so long as people are still using the USD, which they’re less inclined to when we’re tariffing their exports.
Dollars can only be created in the US by the Federal Reserve or US banks. Since the USD is the currency in which most global trade is conducted, the US MUST provide USD liquidity to the rest of the world that they can exchange between one another and the US (cf. Triffin Dilemma). If the rest of the world has no dollars, e.g. an Indonesian company cannot sell goods to an Ecuadorian company settled in USD.
The benefits of this system to the US are enormous (cf. Exorbitant Privilege) since US can print dollars out of thin air and 'give away' these bytes in a database and receive real goods in exchange. Real goods that people spent energy and expended labor for, in exchange for bytes in a DB.
If the US stopped supplying dollars to the rest of the world, it'd first spark a massive financial crisis as companies that owe USD to one another default in a chain reaction. Afterwards, an alternate to the USD would emerge as 'hard money that everyone accepts'. Candidates for this currently are limited in the space of fiat, Europe and China are net exporters so they cannot supply EUR/CNY to the rest of the world in net just like a US with trade surpluses cannot. Possibly there could be a return to precious metal backed currencies. But in any case, in such an environment, US could no longer receive goods 'for free' in exchange for bytes in a database and its life standards would greatly suffer.
Theater to keep Mad King Trump off their back.
For some more detailed data (hard to find it publicly available), also see the OECD report at [2], particularly pages 18 and 20 (as numbered). This report provides a breakdown of ~2024-2025 per-country/per-region capacity by chip type (power, analog, speciality memory, commodity memory, advanced logic, mature logic) and a prediction for pre-country/per-region upcoming capacity increases by chip type.
There are markets within markets of course. China dominates in power electronics which makes senses when you consider even just their domestic demand for electric vehicles and renewable generators. Taiwan dominates in advanced logic and exports pretty much all of it. ROK dominates in commodity memory and also exports pretty much all of it. When you compare populations of China vs. USA, the USA are/will be punching above their weight for analog and advanced logic chips, which is also where the focus of their investment is.
In categories such as power electronics and mature logic which China dominates, labour cost is much more important than categories such as advanced logic where equipment is the overwhelming cost. For this reason you'll find China (and maybe even India if they bother to get into the market) dominate these categories due to lower costs of labour. Traditional competitors in these categories such as Onsemi and STMicroelectronics have been hurting.[3]
It's hard to predict which announced/planned investments will go ahead and be impactful, for various reasons such as utilisation rates of fabs once built. But it'll be particularly and increasingly difficult to predict the future of semiconductor fabrication due to what is happening in China. China has expanded their domestic chip making equipment industry enough to mandate Chinese fabs use at least 50% Chinese equipment.[4] Over 2024 and 2025 the investment from China into chip making equipment was estimated to be 37-42% of global spend, so we're talking about 20% (or maybe higher up to 40%) of global chip making equipment spending not being readily observable.[5]
[1] https://www.yolegroup.com/product/report/status-of-the-semic...
[2] https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/report...
[3] https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/02/26/news-power-chipma...
[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-mandates-50-domest...
[5] https://www.semi.org/en/SEMI-Reports-Global-Semiconductor-Eq...
So this is just a tax on imports for mostly the middle class.
Furthermore, this is the results of the CHIPS Act, which gave incentives for TSMC to build the Arizona fabs.
This is somewhat justifiable with vital sectors like agriculture, but if you do this in an arbitrary way just for the sake of it you just make stuff more expensive and your workforce less productive for no gain.
Those dollars are not just vanishing abroad, you are getting actual stuff for them, and your citizens then don't have to spend their own time building it and can do something more productive instead.
Much has simply been replaced by nothing at all, i.e. businesses shutter rather than deal with the mess, or ride out until the midterms to see if sanity and rule of law returns at least in Congress. The only ones who actually make an effort are the big companies like Apple that for one need to stay in Trump's good graces lest he slaps them with foreign-asset crap like he did with Anthropic and OpenAI, but also need to divest from China and Taiwan for geopolitical reasons.
Analysis of previous tariffs have found they cost a ton, drive prices up, and increase corporate profits.
The 2018 Trump washing machine tariff raised prices not just for washers but also dryers (12%), and cost $820,000 per job onshored.
A 2012 chinese tire tariff cost $900,000 per job onshored.
It's terrible business.
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20190611
Reminder, Biden, not Trump, introduced the first round of tariffs to protect domestic production.
Hmmm.
2026-07-07 "Canada's trade surplus in May jumps to a four-year high as US exports surge": https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2026:newsml_L4N...
2026-07-06 "US trade deficit surges amid artificial intelligence spending boom": https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/7/us-trade-deficit-...
If Trump's tariffs were supposed to lower the trade deficit, they haven't started working yet.
Thin-film bulk acoustic resonator
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thin-film_bulk_acoustic_resona...
>Trends to utilize RF spectrum more efficiently with higher frequencies than roughly 1.5–2.5 GHz and in some cases also simultaneously with increasing RF output power have supported FBAR technology to become one of the key enabling technologies in telecommunication realisations. FBAR technology complements and in some cases competes with surface acoustic wave (SAW) technology and FBAR resonators can replace crystals in crystal oscillators and crystal filters at frequencies more than 100 MHz.
https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employe...
Like: Apple Watch, most models of iPads, Pro model of phones, etc.
Because without this deal, Apple would have had to transition all products by end-of-year.
This isn't exactly new [1] ( Apple announces multibillion-dollar deal with Broadcom for components made in the USA ), and this was in 2023.
I am not exactly sure what is the timing of this for. Why now?
[1] https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2023/05/apple-announces-multi...