If the CIA could figure out how to stabilize a country that would be nice, but seems they know only how to destabilize countries when looking at their track record [1].
There are no blue states. There are only blue cities. If they wish to "secede", what that indicates is that they have not thought through how easy it is to block a road.
This is also what I point out to my fellow Canadians who insist that Canada has political-economic "friends" in "blue states"; if you look at a map from the 2024 election even the "bluest" of states had walls of red and sometimes especially right next to the Canadian border. Western New York and Vermont both have counties right across the border that swung for Trump sometimes by margins as much at 15%.
There's no easy way out of this quagmire. A deep horrible somewhat tribal division has spread in North American society around a pile of issues and it's become pivoted around a supposed "left"-right axis but it's really about a whole pile of other issues and unresolveable grievances. Prosperity is declining in western countries, and distribution of wealth is becoming drastically unequal. And neither liberal or conservative ideological centres (the only two allowed in American politics) have any kind of solution.
The same infection is here in Canada as well, but less intense. As usual we're just 10 years behind whatever trend happens there.
No CIA model needed. A man caused an insurrection meant to overthrow and destabilize the government. Instead of holding him accountable, his actions were ignored despite a clear directive in the Constitution he should never hold any office again; he was nevertheless made president again; he pardoned all the insurrectionists; and now wants to pay them and himself with tax dollars for his inconvenience.
That system is bound for collapse, I don’t care what any model says it just cannot be sustained as a country that ostensibly cares about laws and the Constitution. It’s a joke all the way down.
Barbara Walter's model (which is what Armitage is leveraging) is deeply flawed and not the norm in most studies into autocracies and state instability.
And to add on to that, Armitage himself has been a provocateur for "soft secession" (which is basically an attempt at trying to instigate a nullification crisis 2.0).
Primarily researchers directly and actively associated with the Ash Center who are researching institutional reform and stability [0] or those associated with the Carnegie Democracy, Conflict, and Governance program [1].
How does he know what the CIA's model says? How did he get this inside information? And shouldn't he now have a warrant out for his arrest for obtaining such a thing?
I suggest reading the article you are commenting on, and you might find a ton of links to research in it. Reading is a great idea in general; I can recommend it.
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[ 0.23 ms ] story [ 37.3 ms ] thread[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r...
There's no easy way out of this quagmire. A deep horrible somewhat tribal division has spread in North American society around a pile of issues and it's become pivoted around a supposed "left"-right axis but it's really about a whole pile of other issues and unresolveable grievances. Prosperity is declining in western countries, and distribution of wealth is becoming drastically unequal. And neither liberal or conservative ideological centres (the only two allowed in American politics) have any kind of solution.
The same infection is here in Canada as well, but less intense. As usual we're just 10 years behind whatever trend happens there.
That system is bound for collapse, I don’t care what any model says it just cannot be sustained as a country that ostensibly cares about laws and the Constitution. It’s a joke all the way down.
And to add on to that, Armitage himself has been a provocateur for "soft secession" (which is basically an attempt at trying to instigate a nullification crisis 2.0).
[0] - https://ash.harvard.edu/issues/instutitional-reforms/
[1] - https://carnegieendowment.org/programs/democracy-conflict-an...
This is why Trump's fight with canada is doomed: Trying to destabilize a top-10 country when your own country doesnt break the top 30.
OSF, CIA, USAID, and US defence agencies of various flavours. Very reassuring to see these stalwarts of democracy funding such a noble metric.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capito...