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Not surprising, H1B for my entire career was a cost cutting measure.

Every time we had a layoff some portion would be replaced with H1B.

Every H1B that shared their salary with me has been underpaid.

I know its anecdotal but sharing to see if anyone has seen similar.

H1B should have never been a lottery. It should be a stack rank by salary to deal with the over subscription.
I have a couple problems with that idea that I've never been able to figure out even though the idea is good.

First, how do we ensure it doesn't become a slave program: that is you get hired for X, and they are paying you that, but you want to find a new job because you don't like your boss. Or perhaps they hire you for X, and you are doing Y (again, nothing illegal)

Second, you hire someone to do a job, and they realize you have to pay them and so they decide to do nothing (or get a second job that they are working instead).

I can find answers to all of the above, but they all fail to: somebody is aware of your solution - how are they going to abuse it. I haven't solved this secondary abuse issue.

the problem is H1B is not only tech, there are nurses, some medical professionals, non-tech specialized workers.

Stack rank would just give all the visas to big tech and starve US hospitals and every other industry

Medical field is under a green program. But following your point. If nursing paid more and had better conditions, it would encourage more domestic talent. H1B should be used for to get the worlds top talent otherwise it will be used by businesses to save money and depress wages.
top talent is different visa (O-1). H1B is merely specialized worker, not top tier global talent.

Nursing does pay a lot and conditions havent changed much over the years. Certified anesthesiology nurses get paid like $132/hr, and still there is shortage.

Ranking by salary would basically mean ranking by industry, not just skill
> It should be a stack rank by salary to deal with the over subscription

Considering salary based on country of origin, adjusted for position, would probably be the best way to ensure little abuse (apart from the indentured servitude-like features). If you want to hire the best, they'll be overpaid in their origin markets.

Same experience. NYC location of a high street investment bank.
Wait? People do not know this? This war was lost a decade ago. Google employs more than 4,100 H-1B visa holders.
Google doesn’t underpay H-1B holders. In my experience any difference in actual pay is more likely caused by the H-1B people having worse salary negotiation skills than native born people.
Not my experience in big tech and HFT.

We spent a ton of time and effort trying to find anyone to our standards, never able to find enough. H1B (and other work visas) were generally better and more Sr compared to locals we found. They got paid as much or more than everyone else.

When we had great people we could not get here we would instead build a team overseas, taking a bunch of other jobs with them.

I think I would reframe the OP less about cost cutting and more that the company has an unrealistic cap on salary. Would be interesting to see where geographically your experience was. Having worked in a he Midwest the problem I have found is that the population wanting to living in the Midwest is small and then when you are trying to recruit top talent it is even harder.
In software, groups of people (teams) have value far more than individuals. You need a large pool of talent to reliably build good teams. This includes some amount of the very best people world wide.

These people gravitate towards big cities where they can earn more, access more amenities and work with other top talent.

Remote could have changed that, but it seems to have fizzled for now.

> In software, groups of people (teams) have value far more than individuals.

Modern AI turns skilled individuals into teams.

Writing the code was never the hard part.
For you maybe. Code was hard/time-consuming for me, but all the other stuff was a breeze.
Looks like there is need for 2 separate visa categories: - One to bring top 0.1% talent from across the globe to the US - Another to bring in temporary talent as needed

Current version of H1B had become a big basket to hold both, and abused too for just finding cheaper labor. It may be time to segment these out.

Also, given that US has ~400 million local citizens, there should be less need for either.

There are already categories like this if you jump away from tech.

Our friendly neighborhood Ski resort oligarchies leverage the J-1 Visa program to bring in international students to work at the resorts over paying more to hire local workers for example. They also leverage the company store model by putting them in dorms and charging them accordingly for housing.

We actually have more than 2. For the top talent, for example, you have a choice between O1 (nonimmigrant visa) and EB1{A,B} (immigrant category). Same we have multiple visas for temp workers of lesser qualifications: L,J, H2 for seasonal farm workers etc. H1B is just the most abused one as it's the key part of the very important F1->OPT->H1B scheme, which literally makes billions for American schools.
Comparing getting an American to uproot themselves from their entire community to move to the Bay Area for a job vs. someone on the other side of the world who is looking to get into America just aren't the same. Ultimately, H1Bs are used to lower the working standards of Americans and enrich tiny pockets of existing regional capital holders.

Regional wealth inequality in America has not gotten better as Silicon Valley has gotten richer and brought in more foreign labor. At some point, the people making money hand over fist need to show how they're improving the situation for Americans instead of just saying "trust us, bro."

The AI discussion hasn't helped Silicon Valley seem more in touch with "flyover" states either. It's pretty clear there's a lot of disdain and hostility from Silicon Valley towards the "average" American.

The best people I worked from (in the bay area) were from Switzerland, Germany, the UK, France , Israel, etc.
Were they on H1Bs? Most I knew from similar countries in the Bay Area wouldn’t have been.

But these visas aren’t about best, btw. They’re about none available. The goalpost has moved to “none available for my price in the most expensive place on earth.” In my experience, the overall effect of these policies was hiring foreign masters students who were more exploitable over American undergraduates who would require the same training. The graduate pipeline, where domestic students were being warned off during the early 2000s already due to poor working conditions, became a credentialism excuse which was also exploited by researchers.

Again, we keep coming to these tertiary arguments which don’t deal with the issue: domestic born Americans are unhappy with their outcomes. Immigration is about the dumbest solution to Americans not being able to afford kids I can imagine. If that’s Silicon Valley’s best solution to a biological imperative, I expect things to only get worse. No, dorm-style housing that requires two tech incomes is not the American Dream. Please look at housing costs in San Jose before asking for more exploitable labor.

They all eventually became permanent residents and citizens. But they all start off as h1 or the one that lets you stay a while after finishing a PhD. Some switched to O-1 (or whatever the extraordinary talent one is).

I’ve worked with some amazing Austrians who had to go to 3rd country for a year waiting for the lottery.

I think that both you and the grandparent comment are correct at the same time. It feels like there is a strong dichotomy between how H1B visa is treated across different realms of tech.

I have been working in big tech for a decade, and have a few friends working in the more technical financial firms (think more TwoSigma/HRT/Citadel, not JPM/GS), and my experience matches yours. Every H1B I knew at the companies I worked at was absolutely not hired as a cost-cutting measure. It was just simply difficult to find people who could qualify. And god knows we tried, I remember my team interviewing roughly 50 people just to fill a position of just a baseline decent dev (not a rockstar math olympics winner with multiple groundbreaking publications; though that would've been nice). And absolutely none of them were underpaid either, they were on the exact same comp range for the level, with plenty of them topping out the range. In fact, they actually ended up costing more to the employer than a local would, due to having to deal with immigration lawyers/filing fees/etc. (all while being paid the same as everyone else).

Meanwhile, I have a lot of acquaintances from undergrad working as devs at tech consultancy firms and more "general/traditional finance" companies. The stories I hear from them about H1B at their workplaces are pretty much exactly what the grandparent comment describes, and even worse.

> In fact, they actually ended up costing more to the employer than a local would, due to having to deal with immigration lawyers/filing fees/etc. (all while being paid the same as everyone else).

I mean, you were actually underpaying the local workers if this was the case? If you offered the fully loaded salary to the local workers they might have accepted.

Or the local going rate for qualified personel were higher than you were willing to pay (which per def is true, if you had to bring in foreign work?).

> Or the local going rate for qualified personel were higher than you were willing to pay (which per def is true, if you had to bring in foreign work?).

Yeah, by definition this is pretty much always true, no? No matter how scarce local workers are, if you were willing to offer double the market rate you could probably find someone. Scarcity and price are two sides of the same coin, that's how markets work. Bringing in labor from another country when local talent is scarce both reduces costs/wages and reduces scarcity.

Workers on an H1B are more abusable though - if they lose the job they have something like 30 days to find another one or they have to leave the country entirely.

So you talk a good game about work life balance and then after you hire an H1B worker and bring them to the country you can spring 60 hour weeks doing tedius things and many won't be in a position to say no.

The salary might also seem higher to somebody who doesn't understand the cost of living in the US (and how many things are not paid for via taxes like healthcare).

At all of my jobs everyone was treated the same.
Yep, and that is also an explicit requirement for interviewers at every company I worked at.

I had to do interview training myself at one of them, and the guidelines were fairly specific and clear about this. We neither knew about the immigration status of the candidate nor were we allowed to ask/note/talk about it at all. Same as with age/marital status/etc.

> Or the local going rate for qualified personel were higher than you were willing to pay

Whenever someone says "But then the locals making $400k would make $500k" I have to ask: where are all these qualified locals for whom $400k isn't enough money already? Shouldn't all the laid-off people be champing at the bit for these jobs?

At some price point you genuinely do run out of local talent. At that point it's just a question of whether the work goes abroad or foreign workers come in.

IME we had very few people turn down offers, and even the it was rarely about the comp.

It’s hard to get people to even interview, or find them in the first place.

> Or the local going rate for qualified personel were higher than you were willing to pay (which per def is true, if you had to bring in foreign work?).

Nope, immigration fees/lawyer expenses are simply just a negligible cost in the grand scheme of things.

When you hire someone earning $350k+ in annual TC, an extra $10-20k one-time cost of immigration-related expenses is a nothingburger for big tech companies.

Along the same line of reasoning: relocation expenses for candidates within the US. Big tech companies don't stress over a one-time $10k relocation package cost (for a candidate that passed the interviews and accepted the offer, but just happened to be from another state).

International relocation is much more, I’ve had close to 50k for just domestic.

But I never had the impression they cared about the amount very much.

While I’m more open to this kind of H1B use, you all should be investing in training local talent as well. Ideally using those H1Bs to train local talent.

We put people on the moon. I find it hard to believe the people here lack the raw ability. I find it much more likely businesses don’t want to give back to the country that they’re residing in.

I learned a tremendous amount (and was very successful as a result) from foreign born colleagues (some of whom went on to be ACM fellows, and other major awards).

Having a disproportionate share of the best people world wide to work with is a great privilege and advantage.

+1 to this at big tech.

H1B were no less skilled (and no less paid) than their US-based counterparts.

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> Not surprising, H1B for my entire career was a cost cutting measure.

> Every H1B that shared their salary with me has been underpaid.

Yes.

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I have definitely seen job postings that were so detailed and narrow that they couldn't possibly find anyone "qualified". They were clearly making it so that it would be easier to claim that nobody in the country was qualified.

But I will say that the only people I have met that are here on H1-B have been uniquely qualified for their position. Such as, they invented a way to scale a given chemical manufacturing process, and they were developing it further.

But I got the impression that they were not particularly well paid like I would expect an American in the same position to be.

It definitely varies a ton.

I've observed more that H1B's keep employee mobility lower, so employees on H1Bs tended to be paid less due to the natural bumps that come out of switching jobs every few years, especially going from an associate to senior/staff level where often the company throws a small raise with promotions that don't keep up with market rates.

One other factor that I experienced is when I was in senior leadership we absolutely tracked 'flight risk' that factored in to retention programs for top talent, and H1Bs were by the nature of it viewed as lower flight risks so less likely to fall into these programs.

I think this will go hand in hand with tech compensation and jobs falling off a cliff. In the AI world too, we can't have our cake and eat it.
Yeah, fine. Honestly I think most of us have been overpaid our entire career. But I'm not sure I see it necessarily. Take these stats, which can cut either way on this topic:

In USA there are more software engineers than all other engineers combined.

There are 10x more software engineers than the next highest engineering discipline.

If you could subdivide s/w engs into 10 equal categories ("I'm not just a run of the mill s/w eng"), each of those would be the top engineering employment category.

The top 10% of software engineers outnumber the next highest engineer class.

At 10% unemployment, there are more unemployed software engineers than the next highest employed engineer category.

I don't think you'll find this community welcoming the idea of lower pay (and hence a more volatile employment).

Overall if in the next 12 months I fully expect compensation on average to be down 30-50%. It's impossible for it not to, given the sudden exodus of talent from US to open up remote consultancies that can offer same skill at 1/4th the price.

I don't think this is surprising given that the US has also lost so much manufacturing due to cost cutting. A service economy is going to need a lot of software engineering. A nice big factory takes a lot of mechanical and electrical engineers.
Hard disagree about being overpaid. These are some of the most profitable companies in the world, what else should they do if not pay their workers well?
So is walmart. If you can understand that system, the answer to your question is revealed.
I'd be happier if H1B's (read: employment slavery) was completely redone and not tied to a single sponsor company, or gotten rid of completely.

I know so many IT folks who are unemployed. And compounding that is unmitigated slop machines for both generating resumes and filtering them.

Its fraud all the way down every where I look.

Yep. Taking advantage of desperate people from developing countries who think a $90k salary is something extravagant.
The USA is the capitalist economy. The businesses do get protection and advantages.
Wow. This will affect universities and negatively impact the US in the coming years.

How many of the talent from frontier labs is immigrant?

50% of US unicorns are immigrant founded.
So it was never about the talent, but just about cost?
The H1B problem could be fixed overnight if the government handed them out by a simple test of ability rather than an idiotic lottery. Having world class researchers and engineers who command million dollar salaries enter the same line as a $60K worker at a slop factory like Infosys or TCS is beyond idiotic. And a high visa fee ultimately hurts more than it helps because it drives away both groups, and US tech needs the top talent from across the world to continue to remain dominant.
Cap the number, sort by salaries (perhaps by coarse domains of skills and not very narrow . Nurses vs Doctors. But s/w engineers are s/w engineers).

Testing abilities is a gamable proxy. How much a company is willing to spend on the person is the best barometer, if we stay true to the intent of the visa (scarce talent)

I’m not super familiar with the options, but isn’t there O-1 for anyone who’s world class commanding a million dollar salary? The impression I have (mostly from online discussion) is that H-1B is basically only for (comparatively) low skill workers to come work for lower salaries. Are there cases where globally competitive people would come on a H-1B?
The H1B debate has a lot of factions, but one thing is clear: AI is going to be replacing some to a lot of entry level knowledge jobs. Even if it doesn't get any better than what we have now, it'll create a pipeline problem where senior engineers are more valuable than ever and we'll have to figure out how to make room for junior engineers so that eventually they can become senior engineers. Given that, it seems prudent to pump the brakes on H1B--which has become a way to get bodies for entry level work (while top talent has shifted to O visas and the like).
I suspect the real answer to that is that we'll need 10x less engineers than right now long term.
Almost like if the $100k fee is the sticking point, then maybe the talent being brought in isn’t world class talent we can’t find domestically so much as easily exploitable manpower that can be replaced with another H-1B if they start asking for reasonable treatment or higher wages.

Sorry IEEE, but offshoring happens regardless of the H-1B fee. I’m a pretty flexible dinosaur but you’re never going to get me to feel sympathy for employers leveraging a visa that’s tantamount to employment slavery in its onerous restrictions and lack of direct pathway to citizenship.

It's funny how quickly tech employees turn MAGA when it comes to qualified immigration. Bad zero-sum intuitions about work abound across all strata of society, it seems.
all H1B posts turn into Klan rallies.
So if you're not pro social dumping you're anti immigration? Weird when both are about chauvinism against foreigners.
Its time to have a politics which puts the workers needs at its center. I can confidently say that the current system harms both workers and immigrants.
"Middle America hates immigrants because they are racists. I don't want H1-Bs because companies use them as cheaper labor, undercutting my value."

Absolute peak "lost in the political sauce". Most people aren't aware that Bernie Sanders has historically been very anti-immigration, before just becoming an old guy who echos whatever the current young people vibe is.

Was he “let’s put some limits on the number of H1Bs” anti immigration or was he “let’s deport 100 million people and shoot some innocent citizens in the face while doing it” anti immigration?
We won't ever know.

I know this sounds like a cop out, but Bernie isn't Ghandi just because he thinks socialism is cool. The immigrants who got shot were "fascist riot inciters" and it all just vanishes into the news media abyss.

Same thing how the left media does full lifetime bios on deported immigrants while the right media only reports on the gangsters and rapists who get deported.

Oh we know. What I also know is: I can be friends with someone who disagrees with me about whether Bernie Sanders policies are good for America. I cannot be friends with a person who is an apologist for ICE wearing masks, driving unmarked cars, illegally detaining American citizens, and killing innocent people with zero accountability. Have a nice day.
I don't see anywhere that I apologized for it?

My observation is simply that we don't know what Bernie's immigration enforcement would look like.

You are inventing an opponent who is not in this thread. Please keep this noisy rhetorical tactic outside of HN.
India has become super popular for US VCs. Why not invest domestically? Cost and control I guess.
The other half of "cost" is "return on investment".

If I had a plan to e.g. copy-paste specific success stories from any rich country to any poor country, something that might e.g. raise the per-capita income of the poor country to that of the rich country over 30 years, I'd be glad to have the chance to make that investment in India.

The per-capita GDP difference between the USA (94k) and India (2.8k) would imply 3300% growth over 30 years, which is about 12.5%/year compounding average annual growth for the whole period.

This feels small enough to be plausible, and big enough to be massively tempting. Extremely fast growth, but not quite pushing absurd.

ok great but this hollows out American Industry which is a primary concern right now.
I'm seeing a lot of "offshoring" and go to Canada at the moment in my co.
On the whole, this is a good thing. There are policy responses that can be enacted as needed, in an easier and more humane way. The goal of the US government should be to protect the interests of the American citizen, as much as the goals of India or China should be to protect their own interests.
Its goal to protect the American citizen is fulfilled by economic security. If you let your industries leave, you have done a disservice to your citizens. That’s how trump got elected in the first place, and ironically it’ll only get worse because it’s the wrong solution.
> The goal of the US government should be to protect the interests of the American citizen

Except this is doing the opposite. Pushing jobs offshore does not help American citizens.

I think it lessens the damage -- offshore workers do not consume finite resources in their host countries (e.g. housing, medical care) leaving those to the native citizens. Eventually AI will replace the "need" for these visa holders -- cancelling a contract with an offshore firm is more tenable than remigrating thousands of families.
I'm a former H1B visa holder and I feel very conflicted. My experience was a great one: I was hired by a startup on an H1B, successfully transferred to a different startup, then eventually went to work for a bigger company that sponsored my green card. I wasn't underpaid by those startups and I know this $100k fee means a similar company will never hire someone like me again.

But over the years I got to know many people on H1Bs who were indentured servants to their employers: once their green card application was in they were stuck. And if you're from a country like India that can take a decade or more. The whole thing feels like a scam and the $100k fee isn't going to deter those companies from doing it, it's still well worth the money to them. I wish we saw sensible, well thought out reform here. Instead we get the Trump administration.

well said, thanks for sharing your perspective.
I worked at a company that depended heavily on one of the major 4 Indian suppliers. Their employees were treated like garbage. they would bring them here for months at a time. It was like indentured servitude. they lived in a bunk house and worked all day and slept and a bus picked them up and they worked. 6 days a week. If they fucked up, they were gone the next day. All for the chance to make it here.

Once we added a resource and had a sham hiring process in which the supplier supplied an expert with no less than 10 pages of experience in our niche project. To his credit, he did not lie to me, and told me he could try to figure it out but had not worked on the product, but that he needed to do well. We were forced to hire him

Later our team slated to replaced by that firm to maintain a major product while we went to green field stuff. I resigned and my team flew the coup over the next year or

Disgusting

we should have a tax or tariff on "W2" employees or firms outsourcing labor. Minimally a tax that helps pay for our social safety net. We depend on new employed young people and sending that work afar does not help us.

Canada is jumping on this opportunity to invite the US tech workers who are frustrated with US H1B visa restrictions and GC backlog by offering an express permanent residency in 10 days

https://canadabychoice.com/services/move-to-canada/usa/occup...

Canada also floating idea of alliance with Europe for travel and job opportunities

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-european-union-eu-me...

The economics don’t make any more sense for Canada or the EU than they do for the US. The the new $100k H1B fee was imposed because companies have a huge financial incentive to import semi-skilled workers from lower-wage markets rather than hire domestically. Canada and the EU face the same problem. In tech, it's about the kinds of work inexperienced/cheap developers are often doing: assembly line, JIRA-ticket-taker type development.

This is especially impacting Indian tech workers in the US [1] since these are often the types of roles that InfoSys and other foreign tech consulting firms are staffing. The new $100,000 fee to sponsor an H1B visa has made it difficult to justify hiring foreign tech workers when most of the time they are just going to be using American LLMs to do their work anyway.

The foreign tech workers that are worth the $100,000 fee are still easily getting their visa sponsored.

[1] https://thefederal.com/category/news/h1b-visa-indian-tech-wo...

Patently false narrative, equivalent to saying all americans are fat - both are extremely cheap uneducated arguments.

Every single H1B I worked with was brilliant in their field - and paid extremely well often in excess of $400K. I know several that are earning well past $500K. If you claim these are generic Jira pushers, well you are showing ignorance.

The $100K fees isn’t material to them but the whole vitriolic nonsense poured around what they do and just rolling their work in mud - well that’s where they just move and take their 50 ppl organization with them.

This is pure nonsense.

The H1B coworkers I work with really go the entire spectrum. The laziest programmers I met are H1B. And there are also some pretty smart ones that I learned a lot from and I continue to learn from.

To say that the H1B are all brilliant is hyperbole.

Well, if this small fee can help brilliant folks to explore their horizons outside US, it would be all worth in end.
I don't doubt your experience is true. But consider the fact that your experience can be true in parallel with the other scenarios people are highlighting.
> Every single H1B I worked with was brilliant in their field - and paid extremely well often in excess of $400K. I know several that are earning well past $500K. If you claim these are generic Jira pushers, well you are showing ignorance.

It's a lottery system. Yes, by random chance, some of the visas will go to people who can otherwise get a job at FAANG. But most of the industry is "JIRA pushers," and that's where most of the visas go.

That just means you worked with brilliant people paid in excess of $400K. It probably has more to do with where you worked than with the talent or compensation of H1Bs across the spectrum.
[delayed]
Yeah, it is not much worth because issue is not that top talent on H1 matches local talent but how average is the rest but get brought to US in name of high skill immigration.

The debate by supporters is set like: Look at these 5 top guys they are best in class in every aspect so why shouldn't they be here. And now don't look over there 500 guys which are business analyst, basic enterprise coders, testers application support engineers lest question maybe asked how come they are considered highly skilled.

[delayed]
I've often wondered what the best way to do this, if the goal was to bring over only top tier talent. I've heard it floated it could be a bidding system instead of a lottery (countered with the fact that only the biggest firms would be able to bid high enough to bring people in), but I'm not an economist so I don't know how that would all shake out.

I think I'm more just speaking out loud here: what is the optimal way to do this that allows a capped influx of talented outside workers, that doesn't allow "degree mills"?

I don't have an answer, but I honestly wonder. Some of the green card folks I've worked with (I know that is different, or at least I think it is in the grand scheme of things?) have been some of the smartest people I've worked with.

H1B's goal is not to bring top tier talent, to qualify for one you need a bachelor's degree (or "equivalent experience") and a job that claims only people with a degree can do, that's all, that is the requirement (there is also a "fashion model" subcategory, which does not even require a degree). There are other visa categories for top talent, e.g. O-1, which has more requirements, which align better with top talent.
They are not supposed to be "on par" with average employees, the visa is supposed to be for exceptional talent that cannot be hired in America. There is no shortage of domestic average devs, so these average h1b devs ought to be leaving.
these were not average employees - top decile engineers i've worked with, shipping quickly and rigorously to millions of global users
Ironically, if it's true that the jobs are being off-shored, rather than on-shored and filled by locals, this would be beneficial for the countries who currently find themselves in a brain-drain spiral. It would result in a more tech and economically balanced world rather than having two lobes (USA and China). People would say that it's a detriment to the US's future --but those are often the most critical of US hegemony.
The Indian offshore firms are scrambling because of the opposite happening. If all this work was just flooding to India then the panic that’s happening there over the industry imploding wouldn’t be occurring.

The sort of work traditionally handled by cheap offshore labor is now the sort of work most ripe for replacement by AI. So it’s burning the candle from both ends. The low value stuff is getting replaced by AI and not sent there and the high value stuff struggles to get delivered by cheap labor because the play was always cost of and not the quality of the talent.

US has shipped all manufacturing jobs to Asia, including China and got the Rust Belt in exchange (and huge corporate profits). and China is now a manufacturing powerhouse.

Partly that push was created by the labor unions, who pushed the cost of doing manufacturing business far above what was profitable and feasible.

When the environment becomes hostile to conducting business, then jobs will leave and local industries atrophy.

How was the environment that enabled businesses to lower their cost by admitting China in WTO hostile to conducting business?

BTW - with or without unions manufacturing was profitable in the US before NAFTA and China entering WTO. So your narrative that manufacturing was dying because of labor unions does not hold much water.

the offshoring of manufacturing started in the 50s and 60s and accelerated in the 80s. the reason is that US wanted to do specialized high value manufacturing, and was offshoring everything low value and low margin, because of increasing cost of environment and labor regulations and unions.

My fear is that if US becomes hostile to foreign tech workers, they will simply create alternatives to US Big Tech in other countries and US economy will suffer.

Current US domination of global tech is partly because of foreign tech talent.

"the offshoring of manufacturing started in the 50s and 60s and accelerated in the 80s. " - not true.

Manufacturing offshoring started in late 90s in small part due to NAFTA and then accelerated when China entered WTO in early 2000s (thank you President Clinton for this one).

The manufacturing employment trend shows this quite clearly I think: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/manemp

> Manufacturing offshoring started in late 90s

Speaking as an Irish person who grew up in the 80's, this isn't true as there were loads of US companies manufacturing in Ireland back then. There were even clothes manufacturers until the mid 90s.

So I'd probably agree more with the OP here, perhaps the Asian outsourcing happened in the 90s (but even then, loads of my toys as a kid were made in Taiwan), but this has been happening for a while.

It's potentially related to the relaxation of capital controls that happened in the 70s.

I mean Canada has jumped so many times in last 8-10 years with these express residencies, hiring H1B laid off workers, grabbing people who are stuck with travel restrictions to US I'd have thought they be half way to the moon.

In any case I wish well to people in Canada and Europe and people who are looking to move there. More spreaded opportunities lead to better outcome for everyone including US even if it does not look like one.

> I mean Canada has jumped so many times in last 8-10 years with these express residencies, hiring H1B laid off workers, grabbing people who are stuck with travel restrictions to US I'd have thought they be half way to the moon.

What if I told you the people Canada really want have no issues getting a US work visa/Green Card?

Check out O-1 visas and EB-1/2.

> What if I told you the people Canada really want have no issues getting a US work visa/Green Card?

This is ignorant. Stop pretending like the government is just barring illegals or "low-skill" workers (as you indicate in another thread) and welcome everyone else.

I used to hold O-1. I have approved EB-1A I-140. Yet I ended up surprisingly being denied entry by the US CBP, unable to return to my home in the US, almost losing my job.

The government is targeting all fronts. Those with slightest law violations are prosecuted and deported by ICE. High-skill workers from certain backgrounds are facing increasing visa/green-card scrutiny. International students are barred from internships (see recent regulatory changes for CPT and news about potential 100K fee for OPT as well).

> Yet I ended up surprisingly being denied entry by the US CBP

Did it have anything to do with failing a background check? Often, denials aren't as "surprising" as they seem.

While I feel irritated, I still in principle feel it's a good thing to continue the discussion and share different experiences and viewpoints to open people's eyes. So let me tell you more.

After my wife moved to Canada to wait for her US work permit / visa last year, I visited her every few times. I hold O-1 status in the US but didn't have an O-1 visa. I had been able to return to the US through a program called Automatic Revalidation [1].

At the same port-of-entry, using the same documents, CBP let me in three times. Every time they put me in secondary inspection, ask me for a lot of details about my travel. But they did let me in. The fourth time, the CBP changed their mind. They said a student visa I used to use was revoked a few years ago and wanted me to apply for an O-1 visa to prove my eligibility to enter, which I argued had nothing to do with my O-1 eligibility.

Why was my student visa revoked? I quote the email the consulate sent me years ago: "The revocation of your visa was due to additional information that became available after the visa was issued." That's it. I had sent follow-up emails and requested FOIA but never got any more details. That was a hard-earned visa. When I left the US to a Latin American country to apply for the new visa, I was detained and interrogated by CBP at the airport, presumably because of suspicions of Chinese espionage -- I was also investigated by FBI at some point. I lived in a country that was badly hit by COVID for two months to wait for the administrative processing of my visa. They stamped the visa, then revoked it, and that hit me again after years.

Surprising? Having the same travel documents at the same port, being eligible for entry for 3 times but denied the 4th time is definitely surprising. Not surprising? Yeah I have had a lot of troubles with the US government.

I never technically "fail a background check". Every of my previous visas and immigration petitions got approved after an unusually long obscured process. But how fair is it? Can I even expect an end to this?

And I'm definitely not the only one. I know a community of Chinese students / workers with more or less similar experiences. You can also search on Reddit for stories about long visa administrative processing that ruined people's careers and life.

[1] https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/visa-inf...

All of this sounds like a win-win for the US and you: You don't like their policy and they don't want you in the country.
While 90% of Canadian tech grads work in the US on TN visas.

This stuff doesn't actually help Canada at all, it's in a bit of a development trap.

Man it’s embarrassing that they had AI write that for them
Canada was already much cheaper than the US for tech. I was shocked to find out how little colleagues in Canada in the same role are paid relative to peers in the US.

If the issue was cost the jobs would already be in Canada. If the issue was cost the jobs would also have already been offshored.

The issue is on attracting the best talent and here, despite doomsday predictions to the contrary, the US continues to lead. The $100k fee is nothing to bring in top talent. Top talent was competing against Indian offshore companies scooping up thousands of visas for iffy-at-best talent.

The cold reality is many folks in tech on this visa were mediocre talent at best coming out of degree mills or body shops, in roles that could easily be filled domestically if there wasn’t inexpensive overseas labor willing to work for less.

Folks casually leave out the bit that all that iffy talent was crowding out far better talent looking to come to the US but couldn’t because they didn’t get picked in the lottery. This raising of the entry bar is freeing up space so the best folks have a better chance.

Agree with it or not that’s what these changes are aiming to fix, and there’s little evidence this will just send all the jobs to Canada.

While the U.S. capricious immigration policy gives an opportunity for Canada, it only gives it one particular opportunity: that of hiring educated, high-potential, but inexperienced immigrant workers.

The thing about potential is that it needs to right environment to be realized. Canada still has two hurdles to create that environment:

- Access to capital, either in the form of risk-tolerant VC funding or established companies willing to invest significantly in R&D. Those are not quick to move over the border.

- A critical mass of _experienced_ talent. Entrepreneurs and high-agency ICs who've seen what it looks like to build a successful startup and capable of replicating it. Those don't have much incentive to move over the border either.

The U.S. has hundreds of startups that later became unicorns. The employees of those startups are typically the key members that drive the success of new ones. For Canada, the only name that easily comes to mind is Shopify.

> an express permanent residency in 10 days

This is false. Your source says it's for work permits. Though I still doubt IRCC would process an application in 10 days.

My wife and I have been US tech refugees in Vancouver after our US working permits were indefinitely held for security checks. We are targeting Canadian PR through Express Entry (EE) in case we are not able to return to the US. I have to note it's not a sure path to PR for US tech refugees.

EE heavily favors French speakers and workers with local education/working experiences, and penalizes "old" people above 30. It also subsidizes certain fields (healthcare, transport...) that's not favored by the market. If you can max French points and have a bachelors degree, you are in. If you are not in these favored categories, learn French (which a lot of new immigrants are doing) or wait for years to accumulate Canadian experiences (and hopefully the rule doesn't change).

We have masters and PhD degrees, my wife has gained 1-year working experience here, and we have maxed English scores, but we haven't qualified only because we entered our 30s.

PNP (provincial nominee) is a more guaranteed path to PR, but it requires company sponsorship and the chance still depends on your paid level and other factors. Our US employers view our relocation to Canada as temporary so they don't do it. The alternative is switching to a local position/company. But tech positions here in Vancouver are very limited (at least compared to US tech hubs). I personally don't really want to sacrifice the career just for immigration.

> US tech refugees

Could we hold off on using the term "refugee" here? My partner works with actual refugees. We're talking about a 12 year old Ukrainian girl who last saw her father comatose in a hospital bed with both legs torn off, and who witnessed her entire neighborhood turned into rubble. I doubt you and your wife moving from a safe country to another safe country makes you a refugee of any kind. Call it what it is: you are economic migrants.

> indefinitely held for security checks

Canada has been known to be extremely lenient when it comes to background checks, which, honestly, is something that should be addressed if we want to maintain the free movement of people between the two countries.

Could we stop meaningless language policing? I give you the context and I'm not pretending to be a war refugee.

We had been living in California for years until USCIS arbitrarily hold my wife's new working permit apllication for longer than one year and had to leave the country to be able to work. The US CBP subsequentially denied my entry and revoked my visas after I visted my wife and used the same travel documents that I had used several times. I was forced to abandon my home in the US and even unable to collect my things and it almost runined my job. Her new US visa applications have been stuck in the consulate for longer than a year.

Even under UN definition, someome forced to leave their home due to unfair treatments is a refugee.

> Could we stop meaningless language policing?

The law of your new country is already taking care of that. There's a clear legal definition to "refugee" in Canada. You aren't one: you are an economic migrant.

> Even under UN definition, someome forced to leave their home due to unfair treatments is a refugee

You are more than welcome to apply for refugee status if you believe to be eligible under the legal defition of the term. I'm sure a lawyer will be happy to take your money and help you file for it.

But from the sound of it you were denied entry into the US because you failed a criminal/security background check. Maybe I wouldn't brag about it to the Canadian authorities...

Nobody is willing to state this but it’s pretty clear if you look at the way officials behind the policy talk: they’re OK with this. They don’t mind economic harm. The purpose has nothing to do with protecting workers and everything to do with creating a more ethnically homogenous country.
May I give a more balanced perspective here while acknowledging that there are bad actors with malign incentives on both sides of this debate?

I think we should all be able to agree that in the limit both sides of this debate are wrong, and therefore what we are arguing here is where the balance is whether this fee helps strike the right balance.

A nation cannot simply open its labour market up to the most qualified workers in the world and not have most of the best job openings going to foreigners. This is simply just a matter of numbers and probability. If you're very skilled already, then you may not see this as a problem, but if you're just coming out of education looking for a skilled job and must compete with the the entire world for a decent job in your own country, you might feel this isn't a great deal.

Similarly, a nation which does not accept any foreign talent, regardless of what those individuals can provide clearly harms that nation's own economic growth potential, and ultimately longer-term that costs everyone.

Maybe some people disagree, but it seems obvious to me that a nation somewhat owes its best jobs to its own citizens, and it should seek to have labour markets which are tight enough that employees will be occasionally incentivised to hire someone fresh out of education and train them up to be able to work high-skilled and well-paid jobs, rather than simply taking the easy option of hiring someone from abroad.

However, sometimes training someone isn't feasible. From time to time a company may really need talent and is simply unable to reasonably train or source that domestically regardless of the salary they might offer. If this is the case then they should of course be welcome to hire foreign workers, but there should be a financial disincentive to this so that companies are always incentivised to first look for workers domestically.

So I must admit I struggle a bit to understand the opposition to this $100k fee. If this causes talent to be lost then the assumption that they are extremely valuable surely must be wrong?

Well, I’m not making a claim about people showing up to argue on Hacker News so much as the people making the policy. But anyway I anticipate the result of this policy will be economic harm to everyone including people anticipating it will help them.

There’s not much you can do about jobs just moving abroad unless you start some kind of tariffs or import bans on software, which is a self-defeating choice for a massive net exporter of tech services and software.

Bringing new labor into the market isn't an optimal solution in the current market either. If it's a problem, simply tax offshore labor.
There is indeed no need for office jobs to be done in the US, and that's the hard truth.
Not physically, no. Luckily governments exists to exert power over human behavior (ideally to the benefit of its citizens), and not over the behavior of physics.
The $100k fee is such a bad idea. I would be fine for there being a minimum salary to get rid of the undercutting of available American labor. But there are certain niche jobs that there just isn't any local talent for that will just result in contracting with them overseas which is a lose-lose.
Hopefully this helps stem the brain drain from developing countries
The point of the these visas is to hire outside talent which cannot be found in the US and qualifies as the "best and brightest" and specialized "talent" that is beyond outstanding. Everyone knows this has been heavily abused for years.

Now the word "talent" has lost its meaning or most commonly means "anyone" for cheap even though the employer knows that they are unqualified and hires them anyway for cheap labor to reduce their operating costs (expensive US employees).

You can't say "we are hiring the best and brightest" and then decide to then go for those who are unqualified. Now this $100K fee is pointless when AI agents, and data centers (homes for the AI agents) are getting hired over both US employees and off-shored employees.

One more thing. The big question is who would you rather trust to hire to not create a disaster like in [0][1] (Human or AI agent, hint one of them cannot be held accountable.)

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47061682

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-investigating-tata...

Good, H1B is just modern servitude. But there should be an incentive to hire local workers instead of just hiring foreigners in their own country.
Thet should pay into a tax fund that is applied toward student loans of American grads who are unemployed.
But that would increase taxation over corporations. That won't work for as long as corporations can make the vast majority of campaign donations.

Every citizen should have the right to one vote. Large scale campaign financing distorts that.

I remember when this was announced here on HN. So many right-wingers were on board with this because it would bring jobs back and make companies pay. A win-win as they said.
Is this just posturing (I won't speculate on the intended audience), or does the admin believe this will actually net more jobs for US citizens?

TFA doesn't go into great detail about how this actually pushes offshoring - the variety that I'm familiar with at least (X/Y% blend of US/"near-shore" aka anywhere-but-west-asia roles). I have no doubt however that Y is just going to get larger while X stays the same or decreases (not even factoring aipocalypse).

What constraint specifically makes them believe this is going to net in the way they want us to believe?