Bitcoin proper, yes. But not Ethereum; that bubble didn't pop until 2022-ish. The hardware constraints of ASICs made them useless around 2020, causing yet another surge of GPU usage.
I think the system is more fragile than that. Infra providers even now have to raise money with junk rates meaning that are entering a debt spiral. If that compute doesn't come online because the infra providers are bankrupt Anthropic/Open ai can't hit their growth projections and Nvidia sales will drop as well.
And I am not even speculating if the growth/revenue projections are realistic in the first place, which, if not, would be another trigger
And because everybody sees the risk, it is already priced in.
The stock market is unpredictable precisely because everybody is trying to guess what is going to happen next. Dollar cost averaging takes the guessing away.
The bubble can't pop until most investors believe it's not a bubble, it's the new normal. As long as they believe it's a bubble they'll have money on the sidelines to throw in whenever it goes down.
Or at least it can't pop for purely financial reasons. It might still pop if, say, Anthropic and OpenAI both announce they've hit the scaling wall, or Iran somehow bombs TSMC, or a court rules they have to pay a royalty to every book author every time they answer a prompt.
Developing the habit of investing at frequent regular intervals eliminates the desire to time the market. And that's what threads like these are about, for most people.
I agree that there's much wild speculation, but some of the speculation is pretty mild in comparison. Micron trades at a forward P/E multiple of approximately 4.3 x to 5.0 x based on consensus forward earnings estimates. Those aren't bubble numbers. Those aren't even utility numbers anymore.
I think everyone is worried and, at least in this case, being cautious.
Countrywide traded at like 6x earnings in 2005. The market not putting a high multiple on peak earnings for a cyclical is better than the alternative but it doesn’t imply there’s no bubble.
The goal of God In A Box wasn't a good goal anyways.
Most people can't agree on what God In A Box (AGI, the singularity, whatever) even is. We don't have a widely-accepted definition for it.
The SMART criteria for creating goals has been around since 1980 [0]. Goals need to be Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-Bound. This is stuff that they teach most people in bachelor degree-level college course. Not even. Maybe in high school or associates degree-level courses.
If God In A Box was the goal that SV sold all of these investors on to the tune of over a trillion dollars of investment, the best thing we could do with everyone involved is have a massive settlement where all of their money just goes to pay off a fraction of the national debt and they're banished to live in the Alaskan wilderness, never allowed near more than $50 at a time or long-distance telecommunications devices again for as long as they live.
I came across https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2nA2szz8dY a few days ago from during the financial crisis, and the things he listed as the four causes all apply here too just replace Property Developers with businesses adopting AI as part of the hype cycle. The debt and capital markets have their part to play this time too, just not the primary problem. But the ingredients are all still there for AI.
Goverment regulation... when goverment has regulated wall street and banking industry no issues... as soon as "we will let them regulate, no mam, door plugs will not start failing on airplanes..." things go south.
I lost my job during the dot com bust (it preceded the GFC) and since that shook me, I was very skeptical of properties making people rich overnight but they literally were!
"There's no free lunch!", I told myself, but it was becoming increasingly hard to ignore my barber, the cashier at the grocery store, my dentist, my landscaper - all who had bought highly leveraged properties and had actually made profit.
I'm not ashamed to say I started to look into it myself - I was even ready to purchase some leveraged properties myself but kept getting outbid by even crazy offers.
Then 2008 happened. It was both unsettling but also reassuring. My home value halved overnight (it's 800% up now so I'm doing OK) and mu neighborhood went mostly empty (bankruptcies, foreclosures).
Now again in 2026, my barber, the cashier at the grocery store, my dentist, my landscaper - all cannot stop talking about Grok Bot, about "Chat" (they usually mean ChatGPT or Gemini).
Maybe this time I can get in and get out in time, get real rich!
Ponzi schemes are extremely profitable if timed correctly. But statistically, it's impossible for the majority of people to have correct timing. You have to be twice as likely to lose $200k as to make $400k because the whole system averages out to zero.
If you have the right heuristic for when to get out of the scheme you can become an overnight millionaire. I don't have it. Statistically, few people can.
NFTs. I was listening to this one podcast The Million Dollar podcast where they tried to turn 10k into a million dollars. They started a bit late and lost most of it when NFTs and NBA trading cards lost their value pretty quickly. They had some really smart-sounding theories about great stock picks to make boat loads of money too!
Yes it is. Pulling a simple permit takes months and thousands of dollars. Building a new house is practically out of the question.
The SF Bay is deeply supply constrained but just because tech billionaires here can buy up a dozen homes while offering millions over asking, the city gets their taxes and so they are not incentivized to improve things.
News media isn't a truth-finding machine, it plays for engagement. If Bloomberg is publishing this article now it means Bloomberg thinks publishing this now is good for Bloomberg's bottom line, and nothing else.
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[ 0.19 ms ] story [ 27.5 ms ] threadMy finances are in crisis.
You know whos winning ... the bitcoin miners retiring unprofitable cards, if they still have them.
Good job guys.
Bitcoin mining hasn't used GPUs in ages. They've been all-in on ASICs since 2013 or so; even if the GPUs were free, they wouldn't be worth running.
And I am not even speculating if the growth/revenue projections are realistic in the first place, which, if not, would be another trigger
The stock market is unpredictable precisely because everybody is trying to guess what is going to happen next. Dollar cost averaging takes the guessing away.
The bubble can't pop until most investors believe it's not a bubble, it's the new normal. As long as they believe it's a bubble they'll have money on the sidelines to throw in whenever it goes down.
Or at least it can't pop for purely financial reasons. It might still pop if, say, Anthropic and OpenAI both announce they've hit the scaling wall, or Iran somehow bombs TSMC, or a court rules they have to pay a royalty to every book author every time they answer a prompt.
Developing the habit of investing at frequent regular intervals eliminates the desire to time the market. And that's what threads like these are about, for most people.
I think everyone is worried and, at least in this case, being cautious.
Most people can't agree on what God In A Box (AGI, the singularity, whatever) even is. We don't have a widely-accepted definition for it.
The SMART criteria for creating goals has been around since 1980 [0]. Goals need to be Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-Bound. This is stuff that they teach most people in bachelor degree-level college course. Not even. Maybe in high school or associates degree-level courses.
If God In A Box was the goal that SV sold all of these investors on to the tune of over a trillion dollars of investment, the best thing we could do with everyone involved is have a massive settlement where all of their money just goes to pay off a fraction of the national debt and they're banished to live in the Alaskan wilderness, never allowed near more than $50 at a time or long-distance telecommunications devices again for as long as they live.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMART_criteria
"There's no free lunch!", I told myself, but it was becoming increasingly hard to ignore my barber, the cashier at the grocery store, my dentist, my landscaper - all who had bought highly leveraged properties and had actually made profit.
I'm not ashamed to say I started to look into it myself - I was even ready to purchase some leveraged properties myself but kept getting outbid by even crazy offers.
Then 2008 happened. It was both unsettling but also reassuring. My home value halved overnight (it's 800% up now so I'm doing OK) and mu neighborhood went mostly empty (bankruptcies, foreclosures).
Now again in 2026, my barber, the cashier at the grocery store, my dentist, my landscaper - all cannot stop talking about Grok Bot, about "Chat" (they usually mean ChatGPT or Gemini).
Maybe this time I can get in and get out in time, get real rich!
That helps us decide whether there is some purpose and meaning to the entire story about the system.
If you have the right heuristic for when to get out of the scheme you can become an overnight millionaire. I don't have it. Statistically, few people can.
With any luck, all the billionaires in the world will jump out of their windows, just like they did in the ‘29 stock market crash.
October of ‘29. Just three more years to wait.
It is a sign of a deeply broken system.
Yes it is. Pulling a simple permit takes months and thousands of dollars. Building a new house is practically out of the question.
The SF Bay is deeply supply constrained but just because tech billionaires here can buy up a dozen homes while offering millions over asking, the city gets their taxes and so they are not incentivized to improve things.
Makes the binance crypto incident look like nothing (and everyone was made whole).
The hidden $3.2T AI debt on the other hand...