Reporting on the stock market generally is overwrought (stocks always "soar!", "plummet!", "rocket!") because the kind of typical events are inherently repetitive. Sports reporting is the same.
That said, the Nasdaq hasn't seen a lot of -4.8% days recently. This particular article isn't egregious.
Intel lost 50% of its value in a week. But it's up 50% from last year.
Anyone paying attention knows the market is in a weird place, and large swings today are the small swings of the past. It's hardly a "plummet" when the amortized line for the past month, including today, is mostly a linear decline.
We've had a couple of single-day 4% drops over the past few months too. Oh no, the market is the lowest it's been in... 3 months!? This is the largest decline we've seen in... 4 months!?
Could it be a market correction? Could it be a full-on collapse? Sure.
But is a single 4% drop worth a headline "plummeting into correction territory"? Not really.
I want to see an AI takeoff but it isn’t looking good right now. OpenAI is back to tweeting about AI generated gifs. They better drop something big soon.
Alot going on today. a 4% drop in a day is pretty darn big.
3 different pods are being liquidated that i've heard of. And the data center trade has been unwound in just 2 days is a pretty violent shock.
Lots of rumors about situational awareness also in alot of trouble. I feel for this guy a bit. He did really well to get a good slug of Anthropic shares that made his investors alot of money.
But since about July when it was clear that Anthropic was done going up like a rocket ship his investors have probably been hounding him about how he's going to make money outside of Anthropic.
his first foray into the public markets was a disaster and might set a record for fastest wipe out from start to finish that forced him to have to sell his public book escape a wind up.
But due to Anthropic taking a possible IPO valuation cut he's had to go back to the public markets at the worst time and if rumours going around today are correct, he's looking at how to liquidate his public portfolio for the second time in the quarter.
> And the data center trade has been unwound in just 2 days is a pretty violent shock
Is this true? Coreweave is down ~66% over the last 6 months, with that decline occurring somewhat linearly over that period (i.e. not last 2 days). Very similar chart for Applied Digital.
I work in quant trading - I can guarantee you at least 4/7 of the firms on that list are well-known, well-respected, and would count as "big funds". Can't comment on the actual pods that apparently went bust though, but generally you should expect the average pod at these places to be at least reasonably good considering the sink-or-swim environment they are perpetually in.
The Nasdaq rebounds so fast though. it's not that big of a deal. bought the dip. I think it's just noise. markets sometimes look for any reason to sell
Thinking a 5% drop in one day is a big deal is recency bias. Other people have pointed out that statistically it is not that rare. We just have been living through an amazing run for equities.
I am not saying I know it will be fine or I know it will be terrible. I am saying I have lived through many 5%+ drops and they happen on the way up and down.
I think the argument is that we have been in a massive everything bubble since summer of 2020, so you have to look back farther to truly understand the rarity of a 4% drop.
Lots of rumors about situational awareness also in alot of trouble. I feel for this guy a bit. He did really well to get a good slug of Anthropic shares that made his investors alot of money.
What is there to feel for him? he took huge bets and lost , although he will still be wealthy no matter how much $ his clients lose.
It’s giving me Cathie Wood vibes during Covid years. Bet everything on the bubble and look like a genius while the bubble inflates. Afterwards not so much
The writing is on the wall. They lost. No amount of whining from SV people who don't go outside, who do not live in the real world, and who are high on their own supply of agents and harnesses who vibe-code all day in their small EA/rationalist bubbles and produce very little of actual economic value for normal people and who are so arrogant they are attempting to impose their dystopian will upon people will change this.
Investors are not rationalists or effective altruists. They chase the money. If the fundamentals and DD does not math to allow data centers to be profitable, and governments honor the people's will, they will jump ship and quicker than you think. And if governments do not honor the people's will (which is firmly in opposition to the odious people behind this push) then we have far bigger problems to worry about.
> And if governments do not honor the people's will... then we have far bigger problems to worry about.
Oh, yeah, sure. They'll get right on that. Patriot act is going away any day now. Climate change and healthcare and judicial / law enforcement reform going to be addressed any second.
The grind-down has barely started. We were waiting for a catalyst and it was unexpected. The narrative has shifted to a widespread negative ai-vibe and is hard to counter with any amount of propaganda by the pro ai-crowd. Datacenter debt will be repriced and along with that capex-cuts. These take time and have barely started. The markets have smelt that these are around the corner.
He's an overconfident dipshit who made a few large, successful bets that made heaps of money; but he didn't practice any sort of risk management with his portfolio, and kind of did the opposite.
And despite that failure, he made immense personal wealth and will definitely have the opportunity to run more money in the future.
A few days at > 10% and that's perfectly doable in a week. Unlikely I'll grant you but this is a large move at the top of a bull market amid huge concentration and weakening fundamentals. There are reasons to pay attention to it.
Where are the situational awareness rumors? I enjoy some good schadenfreude, but he pinky swore he was done with leverage, so how can he blow up again? Unless he's getting a flood of redemptions.
even if frontier AI development stops where it is today, i would have a hard time calling this an AI winter. I cant imagine AI wont be a major part of my dayjob for the forseeable future
According to the Googles, there have been approximately 14,000 trading days since the Nasdaq Composite was founded, and it has fallen four-percent or more 147 days, meaning that we get a decline like this roughly every 100 trading days, which means about twice a calendar year, very roughly.
That's newsworthy, but also not extremely unusual.
The more interesting detail than nasdaq overall is just what sectors are having bad days and how concentrated that is. Seems to be predominantly AI companies, which is very relevant to the HN crowd.
> meaning that we get a decline like this roughly every 100 trading days, which means about twice a calendar year, very roughly.
Stock volatility is typically clustered. So, we can't make this type of claim. Just like this statement is flawed: Chicago experiences below freezing weather 10% of the time, so every 10 days you see below freezing weather.
Just to come back and clarify: it bounced this morning. Yesterday wasn't the crash. It's not a cluster. Grandparent point was fundamentally correct. "Nothing to see here", as it were.
It's funny: for all the "pattern recognition" people try to apply to markets, they often miss the very basic ones. "Record highs" are incredibly common, and "corrections" also happen regularly.
June had two similar NASDAQ corrections, July had one as well. Sept was flat, but October was a straight downward trend. On the flip side, April to June was a constantly increasing.
The last time the NASDAQ was this low was all the way back in April 2026...
I get what you're saying, however, a correction is technically a 10% drawdown from a recent high: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/market-correction-what-do... so you can be neither in a correction nor at an all-time high. You can be down 0.01% to 9.99%
It seems what happens, because of regime change, is investors will take profit moving to cash, and in the common weeks reposition. For example, Elon is going to have to pay for Doge so he is a political loser. Moving out of SpaceX is pragmatic and expect those who do drive up demand for something else in the coming weeks.
At the end of the day, everyone's retirement is tied to the SP500 and it will always go up.
That’s literally impossible. The market requires a buyer and a seller. If the retired boomers pull their money out, it’ll move the markets to a place that is attractive and affordable for the Gen Alpha.
That isn't where the money propping up the SP500 is coming from. It is a ponzi scheme, yes. It is held up by $40,000,000,000,000 in national debt. That can is getting kicked down the line to one or two generations that haven't been born yet.
You and I don't need to worry about it because we will be long gone by then.
All we know know is that Elon isn't getting any more freshly minted currency.
Indexes are essentially 'the rich getting richer'. Great news for wealth disparity if true. But I suspect boomer inheritances will become intergenerational wealth given average number of children and rising age people inherit at.
To be fair, there is no theoretical model for estimating natural CAPE. I’d argue the world of the post 1990s deserves a higher CAPE than the one which preceded it, though we’re trying hard in American to undo that stability.
If the bank collapse in Paraguay hadn’t happened today, and stocks hadn’t initially risen yesterday, I’d tend to agree with you. This is odd enough to potentially have a better explanation than everyone got happy and then sad all of a sudden.
Read enough of these “explanations” of what the market did and a portrait emerges of extreme emotional volatility combined with a fantastic imagination. The market is insanely happy because x went up, which means the Fed will do y, and so pork belly futures will do z. Oh no! Now it is sad! But for the same reason?
It's just diversity at work. Money is diversifying out of US corporations and flooding into other assets and markets. Expectations of the American economy's near-term future have outrun the realities on the ground, so you could say it is a diversification of expectations, too.
As others have said, averages aren't useful unless the behavior matches the average.
If those 147 4% drops actually happened every 100 days or so then it's not newsworthy or interesting, just an occasional correction.
If those 147 days happened all in a row that would mean the nasdaq dropped to 0.25% of its original value in about 4 months, which would be catastrophic.
The real answer is presumably somewhere in the middle, but the specifics are what determines if it's worth noting or not.
Happens every time Democrats win office, then it slowly trickles back up. The anti-datacenter vote screws up a lot of plans but the lack of power generation had already screwed up much of them anyway. He who shouldn't be named said that all these software people are in for a rude awakening when they try to scale real world infrastructure at the rate they're use to scaling virtual software infrastructure.
Every election has some immediate market volatility in some sectors. You can see it every midterm and general election no matter the outcome. If you zoom out to any meaningful distance and don’t know that they are right after elections, you probably wouldn’t notice it 80% of the time because it looks like any other slightly bigger than normal shift that we see many times a year.
If I had said Elon Musk then there would just be a sea of replies about how evil he is and then more about how amazing he is. It’s best to not even mention his name on HN if you want to stay on topic.
With all respect, that's ridiculous analysis. Even if that were true, the election was the day BEFORE yesterday! You're telling me that the entire world of trading and investment was unable to see the obvious news on their televisions and needed to wait an entire trading day before issuing the sell orders? No one was able to front run this?
This election was different in that the polling leading up to the election was more incorrect than usual, but in the opposite way as previous recent elections. People made financial decisions based on those bad polls. This wasn't the usual midterm backlash.
Given the election result the AI bailout ain’t coming, combined with growing concern AI spending has gotten too forward on its skis. That’s freaking out the markets.
that is right. Trump did this with intel, metals, and other sectors and companies in 2025-2026 . what happens is $ for something else is appropriated for direct investment
For any normal use of the term congress very much is required. They literally control federal spending. If you had some less common idea in mind you should explain it rather than dropping a one line comment that seemingly makes no sense.
It's not ridiculous. Wall Street does this all of the time. It's managing risk and that involves forecasting what will happen in the future.
Maybe you don't like the possibility of Wall Street planning on a bailout, but they are constantly doing that and they also plant stories / narratives in the media encouraging it and they likely whisper in the ears of their politicians that it will "help save the economy" or whatever the FUD of the day is.
I'm not going to comment on the AI bubble, nor if this bill would actually have an effect, but I think this certainly will have an effect on Wall Street's behavior.
Or it could be a "catch a falling knife" opportunity. Too early to tell yet.
But if you look at where the money leaving tech stocks is going, it seems to be rotating into defensive stocks. If that momentum continues, we may have hit a local maxima for a while.
AI isn't, but companies might. The share of tasks you need frontier AI is ever-shrinking and ones where open weight ones are enough is ever-growing.
It won't drop off by a cliff, migrating from existing tooling/vendor that works might just not be worth it, but it seems that there will be less and less money in the frontier
Dotcom was a good buying opportunity? First you had to wait 3 years for it to bottom. Obviously after three years of pain, the dip buyers are all 6 feet under. Even then there was no v shape recovery. Only 2008 and COVID had the quick recovery and long subsequent bull run for tech. But neither one of those was a one day drop. So yeah. Your comment is just cope.
> investors accelerated their move away from technology stocks on fears of a data-center buildout slowdown.
So, approximately how many of those investors are going to lose their jobs and their money for betting on data center buildout while also going about the data center buildout in the most obnoxious, exploitative, electorate-alienating way possible?
Everyday “Our newspaper makes
money by editorializing every tick change in the [$index] market by attributing unverifiable context and not referencing the previous tick we editorialized.”
Do you think next year is going to be more favorable? I think investors are wondering where their money is and how anthropic plans to be sustainable long term.
But that's the same for every AI company
This always happens when Democrats come into power. More regulations means more hiring over seas, higher gas prices, and a worse economy. Clinton was the exception, because he had more fiscally conservative policies.
When we were coming out of Covid, Biden just needed to ease regulations temporarily and do anything to get businesses functioning again. Instead, he listened to his radical base and punished companies with more regulations and taxes. Immediately shutting down the Alaskan pipeline was another mistake.
The end result was the start of the shitty economy and job market we see today.
His "radical base" would be centrists in Europe and Canada. It's so annoying to constantly her right-wingers denounce the Democratic party as being overrun by "radical leftists" when it's mostly a moderate neoliberal party with some progressive and more recent DSA types. And the Democrat's economic policies are normal ones in most advanced economies. Bernie and AOC are basically the 21st century equivalent of FDR.
the American economy is stronger than both Canada and the EU. the US consistently has more growth and GDP per capita than Europe. what defines something as an advanced economy?
Macroeconomic strength is famously … let’s say “only tenuously correlated” with things like quality of life, social mobility, household-level economic stability, and lots of other aspects of social welfare (e.g. education, health risks and access to treatment, sustainable demographic trends and infrastructure practices).
I’m not saying Europe is automatically better on those axes, but even the least charitable assessments have it very competitive with the US on several.
All of which is to say: “well if our politics are so backwards how come we have so much economic/military power?” is a structurally useless question to ask, because those things are not correlates the way people think they are. It’s like asking “if your car is so much safer than mine, how come mine is so much faster?”
(1) Interest rates were generationally low for an extended period of time from 2009 - 2022. We will likely never see that kind of sugar rush again in our lifetimes.
(2) Trump made a deal with OPEC+ during the early days of Covid to drastically cut supply for some fixed time interval. That agreement hurt our economy coming out of Covid.
(3) Consumers completely changed their behaviors and the supply chain had lots of random kinks in the flow of goods. Some countries still maintained closed borders. Ports had months log backlogs of ships waiting to offload cargo as shipping containers were in short supply where they were needed.
(4) The price of eggs and pork were massively inflated because of avian+swine flu outbreaks which we normally deal with by killing the entire flock.
(5) The west coast had a massive drought and a terrible fire season. This was awful for farming/ranching and we still haven't rebuilt the cow herds that shrunk from those years.
Biden's regulatory regime had almost nothing to do with the efficiency of the economy during his term. Just because he didn't open more of Alaska's wilderness to fresh drilling or because he didn't approve the KeyStone XL pipeline didn't have any noticeable effect on the US economy (except perhaps to keep some more truck drivers employed).
Great! The false belief that stocks must endlessly increase in value is a cancer on society. More wealth for the billionaire class does not mean more wealth for you.
I understand the reason for trying to regulate data centers, but given the incredibly rapid pace of AI development and the resulting speed of social change, a temporary regulation could cause us to lose our initiative and miss the trend.
China fosters it intensively at the national level through totalitarianism.
In this rapid social change, democratic procedures may now lose their competitiveness.
155 comments
[ 2.0 ms ] story [ 63.4 ms ] threadStill +4% YoY.
24/7 sensationalist news is just exhausting.
That said, the Nasdaq hasn't seen a lot of -4.8% days recently. This particular article isn't egregious.
Sitting at 5.3% as we speak. This is probably the biggest drop since the initial tarriff hit last year if it doesn't recover by EoD.
Anyone paying attention knows the market is in a weird place, and large swings today are the small swings of the past. It's hardly a "plummet" when the amortized line for the past month, including today, is mostly a linear decline.
We've had a couple of single-day 4% drops over the past few months too. Oh no, the market is the lowest it's been in... 3 months!? This is the largest decline we've seen in... 4 months!?
Could it be a market correction? Could it be a full-on collapse? Sure.
But is a single 4% drop worth a headline "plummeting into correction territory"? Not really.
This is a bigger jump, but it's also immediately after elections and other activity so I'd expect higher volatility than normal.
Do you think people who buy QQQ are impressed with this?
VTV is up 21% yoy btw.
3 different pods are being liquidated that i've heard of. And the data center trade has been unwound in just 2 days is a pretty violent shock.
Lots of rumors about situational awareness also in alot of trouble. I feel for this guy a bit. He did really well to get a good slug of Anthropic shares that made his investors alot of money.
But since about July when it was clear that Anthropic was done going up like a rocket ship his investors have probably been hounding him about how he's going to make money outside of Anthropic.
his first foray into the public markets was a disaster and might set a record for fastest wipe out from start to finish that forced him to have to sell his public book escape a wind up.
But due to Anthropic taking a possible IPO valuation cut he's had to go back to the public markets at the worst time and if rumours going around today are correct, he's looking at how to liquidate his public portfolio for the second time in the quarter.
His wife is chief of staff to Dario isn't she? Not saying this guy isn't smart but let's call a spade a spade here.
Is this true? Coreweave is down ~66% over the last 6 months, with that decline occurring somewhat linearly over that period (i.e. not last 2 days). Very similar chart for Applied Digital.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/leopold-aschenbrenners-situa...
Sources for what specifically?
And I don't think i mentioned reddit:)
Troluce and Axebrook had more than $1.5B pulled from them by Millennium.
Walleye is a $17B AUM fund.
> there are like a zillion of these pod shops and tiny firms. doesn't mean much. wake me up when a big fund fails
I get that not everyone knows the industry but consider this your wakeup call:)
This and Arini in the same year is pretty bad for credit managers.
I am not saying I know it will be fine or I know it will be terrible. I am saying I have lived through many 5%+ drops and they happen on the way up and down.
In the past 5 years the S&P 500 has dropped 5% 1 time. the Nasdaq has done it 3 times.
You are ofcourse welcome to your own definition of a big deal but to me something that happens that rarely is a big deal.
At worst you'd have to agree that hte language is defensible:)
Chips/Memory/data center everything AI has got absolutely destroyed this month.
Look at LITE, FLEX, FIX, TER, WDC, the Kospi.
What is there to feel for him? he took huge bets and lost , although he will still be wealthy no matter how much $ his clients lose.
It's very very far from being unwound. If (or when) it does, many companies in the space will be down 90-100%. Definitely not today.
Investors are not rationalists or effective altruists. They chase the money. If the fundamentals and DD does not math to allow data centers to be profitable, and governments honor the people's will, they will jump ship and quicker than you think. And if governments do not honor the people's will (which is firmly in opposition to the odious people behind this push) then we have far bigger problems to worry about.
Oh, yeah, sure. They'll get right on that. Patriot act is going away any day now. Climate change and healthcare and judicial / law enforcement reform going to be addressed any second.
The grind-down has barely started. We were waiting for a catalyst and it was unexpected. The narrative has shifted to a widespread negative ai-vibe and is hard to counter with any amount of propaganda by the pro ai-crowd. Datacenter debt will be repriced and along with that capex-cuts. These take time and have barely started. The markets have smelt that these are around the corner.
He's an overconfident dipshit who made a few large, successful bets that made heaps of money; but he didn't practice any sort of risk management with his portfolio, and kind of did the opposite.
And despite that failure, he made immense personal wealth and will definitely have the opportunity to run more money in the future.
I'd love to fail as badly as he did.
Yeah, but it's up 50% in the last 5 years. 4% drop puts us back where it was, oh, in July of this year.
A few days at > 10% and that's perfectly doable in a week. Unlikely I'll grant you but this is a large move at the top of a bull market amid huge concentration and weakening fundamentals. There are reasons to pay attention to it.
Am I crazy? Wasn't Astra released just over a month ago? And wasn't Fable 5.1 released around the same time?
Ho often do we expect frontier models to be released?
That's newsworthy, but also not extremely unusual.
The more interesting detail than nasdaq overall is just what sectors are having bad days and how concentrated that is. Seems to be predominantly AI companies, which is very relevant to the HN crowd.
Stock volatility is typically clustered. So, we can't make this type of claim. Just like this statement is flawed: Chicago experiences below freezing weather 10% of the time, so every 10 days you see below freezing weather.
June had two similar NASDAQ corrections, July had one as well. Sept was flat, but October was a straight downward trend. On the flip side, April to June was a constantly increasing.
The last time the NASDAQ was this low was all the way back in April 2026...
At the end of the day, everyone's retirement is tied to the SP500 and it will always go up.
Not when more retired boomers are pulling more money out than GenZ/Alphas are putting in.
That isn't where the money propping up the SP500 is coming from. It is a ponzi scheme, yes. It is held up by $40,000,000,000,000 in national debt. That can is getting kicked down the line to one or two generations that haven't been born yet.
You and I don't need to worry about it because we will be long gone by then.
All we know know is that Elon isn't getting any more freshly minted currency.
A more interesting stat is the current CAPE.
https://www.thetrading.tools/shiller-cape
It is at levels only seen three times in the last century.
People seem to call it a "correction" to make themselves feel better but they're all just crashes to me, and crashes are normal
If those 147 4% drops actually happened every 100 days or so then it's not newsworthy or interesting, just an occasional correction.
If those 147 days happened all in a row that would mean the nasdaq dropped to 0.25% of its original value in about 4 months, which would be catastrophic.
The real answer is presumably somewhere in the middle, but the specifics are what determines if it's worth noting or not.
See https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/04/data-center-ballot-measures-...
You had a good comment until this line.
With all respect, that's ridiculous analysis. Even if that were true, the election was the day BEFORE yesterday! You're telling me that the entire world of trading and investment was unable to see the obvious news on their televisions and needed to wait an entire trading day before issuing the sell orders? No one was able to front run this?
That's just silly, sorry.
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/esg/lutnick-defends-trumps-int...
https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/64069897/Paisner_v_...
socialize the losses
we truly have learned nothing :/
And why should it have? Ridiculous to pre-emptively talk about a bailout before a crash has even materialized. Who exactly was going to be bailed out?
Maybe you don't like the possibility of Wall Street planning on a bailout, but they are constantly doing that and they also plant stories / narratives in the media encouraging it and they likely whisper in the ears of their politicians that it will "help save the economy" or whatever the FUD of the day is.
https://democrats-financialservices.house.gov/news/documents...
I'm not going to comment on the AI bubble, nor if this bill would actually have an effect, but I think this certainly will have an effect on Wall Street's behavior.
AI is not going anywhere and will only grow more and more.
But if you look at where the money leaving tech stocks is going, it seems to be rotating into defensive stocks. If that momentum continues, we may have hit a local maxima for a while.
It won't drop off by a cliff, migrating from existing tooling/vendor that works might just not be worth it, but it seems that there will be less and less money in the frontier
So, approximately how many of those investors are going to lose their jobs and their money for betting on data center buildout while also going about the data center buildout in the most obnoxious, exploitative, electorate-alienating way possible?
Wednesday - "Market soars because of election"
Thursday - "Market plummets because of election"
Can we at least agree that no one has any idea what is going on?
Thanks to whoever added that sub, now we have rubbish like this.
"Market drops 3% as Foo"
When we were coming out of Covid, Biden just needed to ease regulations temporarily and do anything to get businesses functioning again. Instead, he listened to his radical base and punished companies with more regulations and taxes. Immediately shutting down the Alaskan pipeline was another mistake.
The end result was the start of the shitty economy and job market we see today.
I’m not saying Europe is automatically better on those axes, but even the least charitable assessments have it very competitive with the US on several.
All of which is to say: “well if our politics are so backwards how come we have so much economic/military power?” is a structurally useless question to ask, because those things are not correlates the way people think they are. It’s like asking “if your car is so much safer than mine, how come mine is so much faster?”
The current economy being Biden’s fault, and not tariffs, corrupt tax cuts for the rich, and oil blockades, is certainly a take.
Judging by the recent elections, I’d say most US voters don’t agree with that take.
It's a "shitty economy" today because
(1) Interest rates were generationally low for an extended period of time from 2009 - 2022. We will likely never see that kind of sugar rush again in our lifetimes.
(2) Trump made a deal with OPEC+ during the early days of Covid to drastically cut supply for some fixed time interval. That agreement hurt our economy coming out of Covid.
(3) Consumers completely changed their behaviors and the supply chain had lots of random kinks in the flow of goods. Some countries still maintained closed borders. Ports had months log backlogs of ships waiting to offload cargo as shipping containers were in short supply where they were needed.
(4) The price of eggs and pork were massively inflated because of avian+swine flu outbreaks which we normally deal with by killing the entire flock.
(5) The west coast had a massive drought and a terrible fire season. This was awful for farming/ranching and we still haven't rebuilt the cow herds that shrunk from those years.
Biden's regulatory regime had almost nothing to do with the efficiency of the economy during his term. Just because he didn't open more of Alaska's wilderness to fresh drilling or because he didn't approve the KeyStone XL pipeline didn't have any noticeable effect on the US economy (except perhaps to keep some more truck drivers employed).
It's interesting reading the panic then in the comments, and yet now the nasdaq is up 65% from those lows, even with today's drop.
China fosters it intensively at the national level through totalitarianism.
In this rapid social change, democratic procedures may now lose their competitiveness.