Ask HN: Company is firing all employees – should I still exercise my options?
About 2.5 months ago I left my executive position at a promising blockchain startup. As I am nearing the end of my 90 day period for option exercising, i've come to know that the company sent out prior notice to all employees a few days ago, as it is struggling to raise money. All 3 founders are at work trying to raise capital in the upcoming month before money runs out and they are also planing on continuing to do so after all employees leave.
On one hand, I am very hesitant to exercise because of the current status. On the other hand, the company has a remarkable product (which they might decide to sell) and the industry is still very much in it's diapers, meaning there is tons of true potential.
i have a lot of faith in the founders but the recent news really threw me off. Would love to hear your thoughts!
More information: -Company size: 15 employees -Exercise price: $20 (679 options/2.3% of the company) -Company raised from several VC's and also via ICO. -I still hold company's digital currency. -Status: recently launched product (fully functional) after 1.5 years of development with very few customers but high growth rate.
93 comments
[ 4.8 ms ] story [ 161 ms ] threadsorry for the question, just don't know a huge amount about this stuff.
You'd basically have to audit and reverse engineer a ton to even get back to where the product was before firing.
Either they've already struck a deal and the buyer didn't want all the employees, or that company isn't selling, IMO.
Consider that (i) based on what you've told us the original VCs have declined to put any further money in to keep the company alive and have therefore probably written off the entire investment and (ii) any buyer probably needs to hire the founders for a couple of years to actually be able to use the IP, and therefore wants to apportion a sizeable proportion of any money they're willing to pay for the IP to their earnout package rather than compensating shareholders and creditors of the dead company.
And the product apparently doesn't generate non-trivial revenue and was built in 18 months for ~$3m by a team who are all available for hire, so it's not like there's an obvious reason for another party interested in the space to pay massive amounts for the IP - remarkable or otherwise - even if there wasn't pressure to conclude a deal asap...
In the end it's a question of how dear that $13k is to you. If you've got millions in the bank, do it. If gathering that $13k would require you to max out a couple of credit cards and call in your last couple of favors, then don't do it.
Wherever you lie on that huge section in between is going to determine your decision, I think. There are a couple of companies that even for nonpublic stock will buy your exercised units, so if they value each unit/share at $200 then this is a simple decision: exercise and sell (some or all).
Alternatively, you might be able to stretch that $13k a lot further by investing in the next round. Get a good finger on the pulse of the ask price and see how low they'll go before they give up. Your $13k may be the lifeline that buys the company the 15 days it needs to not die, and should be valued accordingly.
Generally the companies that have done turnarounds after a firing round have done it respectfully. Often morale floors after a bad round, smart people leave, remaining people are unproductive. Combined with whatever reasons triggered the firing, most companies don't recover.
If the company eventually unicorns, you will regret having been a part of it but not benefiting financially at all. Even a single share could be a consolation and may actually end up valuable.
If you max out all your options, assuming that's more than your 'play money' budget, you may much sooner regret the decision if the company tanks in a month or two which seems like a definite possibility.
1: Would you be willing to invest $13K into the company right now with your own money in exchange for 2.3%?
2: What are the most extreme odds you are willing to take for
[ X % -> $50K+ , Y % -> $13K , Z % -> $0 | X+Y+Z = 100%]
Then figure out what others are saying the chances of X and Y are.
P.S. My (generous) uninformed bet would be X=1-5% and Y=30%
> - struggling to raise money
> - tons of true potential
Run.
From promising startup to out of money in 2.5 months? As an executive, did you not have insight into these things?
I’d stay in touch with the founders.
This can't be a serious post
I agree with the latter
If the former, please provide examples. I am all ears
I wouldn't bother, you're going to lose your money. If the company pulls through, or finds a buyer for their product, it's highly likely they will play games and essentially extinguish your shares.
I'm mostly kidding, but also not really -- I would seriously put some thought into whether any part of you thinks that this is really a unique investment opportunity, if you're really on some "inside edge" or discounted price given the admittedly subpar position of the company, and if this really differs in any marginal way from any other more liquid form of speculation or downright betting. I don't have the details but this screams "poor financial decision" from where I'm sitting.
Yeah... sure. You kinda shot yourself in the foot here.
When a startup is trying to survive they’ll give up a tremendous amount of equity because the alternative is 80% of nothing or 40% of something.
Does that $13k hurt you to pay out? If it’s not that painful, you can weigh that.
For what’s its worth, I didn’t exercise my options when leaving the last two companies and I felt so sick to my stomach when the last one sold for a couple hundred million but then I looked & saw they sold for less than their last valuation so my shares would’ve been even more watered down in value.
If you believe in blockchain and want to make an extremely risky, but potentially high payoff, bet, I'd personally just split the 13k across BTC and ETH. Those can also go to zero, or grow another 10x+, but you are at least exposed to the entire industry, rather than a single startup. The investment would also be far more liquid, and you could sell at anytime. Even the most successful crypto startup (Coinbase) hasn't done as well as an investment in BTC.
Don't get trapped into overvaluing the options because you already own them. If you had never worked at the company, and they called you today asking to buy 2.3% for $13k, would you do it over buying BTC?
Past performance is no automatic guide to the future, but speculating on Bitcoin has often turned out pretty well. Sounds like speculating on the company you used to work for, by contrast, will have reliably turned out poorly.
Don't kid yourself into thinking this is a good bet. It is a huge gamble that most likely will not pay off. If you can accept that and still want to do it, go ahead. If you don't want to take the risk, don't.
1) The company just fired all of its employees
2) The company just fired all of its employees
3) The company just fired all of its employees
That's a really bad sign. Even if they raise additional money, it likely won't be on good terms. With the price of bitcoin way down from it's peak, and much of the "fools" money in this space dried up, I can't imagine that a company who is so close to the edge that they have to fire all of their employees is going to get great fundraising terms.
But take my advice with a grain of salt, as you obviously know and understand the company better than I do.
As an aside, the fact that you are asking here likely means that you have an emotional investment in the company. I get it. If you really have FOMO, you can always split the difference and maybe exercise half the options, or whatever amount you wouldn't mind losing. I once exercised a few thousand dollars of options knowing that it was a bad investment, but also knowing that if I was wrong and the company did well, I'd have a terrible regret. And it's purely because I worked there for a few years... it's not like I obsess over the fact that I didn't make an early investment in Amazon (where I never worked), even though logically that's the same thing.
If you can find objective metrics that justify investing, great. But if the majority of your decision is emotional it's probably not a great choice.
I would look at what they're doing not what they're saying. They're playing up their opportunities, but firing everyone. The actions speak louder than their words.
Almost every startup has a great idea, a great product and a great team (and if they don't they will still sell you on the idea that they do have all these things).
What great startups have is all of those things plus great market fit plus great adoption plus great investors.
If it's all show it's a no go.
If the founders were the only engineers maybe there's still some chance that they can manage an acquihire for themselves, but it would be worth pennies, and any transaction will likely be below your option execution price.
Firing all the employees is a rather transparent signal that liquidation events (or any financial events) are off the table, and founders are simply debulking expenses to kill the company.
Also, the simple and straight forward solution to your problem is simply to ask them. These might be hard times for the founders but a short and candid message asking about the situation wouldn't hurt. They probably don't want you or anyone spending their money in a dead company.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/crammeddown.asp
I have a friend who was first 50 at Amazon and let 50,000 Amazon options expire. He still did well but... FOMO is a real thing. $1000 is probably my cap in this situation however.
4) The company just fired all of its employees
/s. An amusing and thoughtful response!