125 comments

[ 18.0 ms ] story [ 3667 ms ] thread
Mac revenue down 31% YoY but still above pre-pandemic levels.

Mass WFH created unprecedented demand for desktop computers. Now sales are returning closer to the norm.

Kinda sounds like Apple should be more pro WFH :)
They want US to work from home, not their employers.
The cable company that lays out fibers to enable people work from home can't have cable people work from home
Apple devs don't need to travel to your home so you can use their software on your laptop or phone though.
I do, from time to time, wish they would. :)
They said, Apple. Software developers, sales, legal, and so on absolutely can work from home and any company who wants us to believe their environmental claims would promote it.
That is true but since we haven’t seen M2 macs that can compete with used M1 products it is hard to justify upgrading or even purchasing. Also no follow up to the Mac Pro at all.

It could be more like inflation is impacting Mac sales regardless.

> That is true but since we haven’t seen M2 macs that can compete with used M1 products it is hard to justify upgrading or even purchasing.

It's not clear whether consumers do or even should distinguish between M1 and M2.

> Also no follow up to the Mac Pro at all.

Mac Pro sales have always been tiny portion of Mac sales and have very little effect on the big picture.

> It's not clear whether consumers do or even should distinguish between M1 and M2.

The point being if you bought the M1 during the pandemic, you now have little reason to upgrade despite it being a 2020 processor in 2023.

This has always been true though. Desktop upgrade cycles are not that fast, and longer than smartphones.

Only processor transitions such as PowerPC to Intel and Intel to Apple Silicon give a good reason to upgrade within a few years.

That's kind of the idea.

But there are more than just instruction set transitions. The difference between the Pentium 4 and Core 2 or Bulldozer and Zen were stark.

Even the Ryzen 7000 series has AVX-512, DDR5, PCIe 5.0 etc. It's frequently twice as fast as the 3000 series from 3 years earlier. The M2 isn't that kind of thing.

This is a Mac discussion, and you're discussing non-Mac processors. When have Macs received a massive processor upgrade in 3 years that hasn't been an architecture transition?
If the m2 came with LPDDR6 or faster and card support or something similar I would agree with you. The only new advantage for m2 that I have seen is Wi-Fi 6E and bluetooth 5.2 20 percent more efficiency and speed and an option for the MacBook Pro 14.2 and 16.2 to have 96 of ram which isn’t worth it.
A lot of consumers definitely don't even know that M2 exists. Not enough marketing / differentiation.
This. Btw I’m one of the people who purchased an M1 Pro. I upgrade every 5 years, we will see in 2027 if I need to.
Many reviewers and even me looking at only a marginal improvement between the MacBook Air M1 vs M2 where you can get the MacBook Air M1 at a $200 discount at many places I would recommend the M1. The only real Mac I would recommend with an M2 is the Mac Mini. With the MacBook Pros 14.2 and 16.2 the only thing you can really get as a benefit is with 96GB of RAM which will allow you do to things like running LLMs locally or general productivity or professional video and movie editing and that's only really for the extreme high end.
The shift away from Intel also created something of a backlog in demand - not for corporate, "need what we can get today," purchases, but for home use there was low desire to upgrade pre-M1 chip and then a big flood.
Also a lot of people bought M1 Macs in the previous year because they were the first good Macs since 2015, and didn’t need to buy again.
Also the trade-in price for M1 is 50% lower than on the used market.

(Edit: buyout -> trade-in)

Do you mean when using it as a trade-in with Apple? Something else? Apologies, don't quite follow.
I think the GP poster was referring to that, because (anecdotally but still) when I was selling an M1 Pro, Apple offered me $950 but I was able to sell it for $1500. I probably could've gotten more, but I wanted it out of the house.
Right, have a similar experience. Wanted to upgrade to one with a larger SSD as I'm always running out, but the trade-in price was ridiculous. Decided to keep what I have
When do you ever need to upgrade your desktop computer every year?

Upgrade cycles are more like 4-6+ years.

Yes sure. I mean, many people hadn’t had an incentive to buy for several years and then a much improved machine came along, and many people bit. I certainly did, after years of hating my 2016 MacBook Pro.
I liked my 2013 air and the M1 air was the first thing to come along that seemed a fair bit better. Although I still miss the smaller size and weight of the 11" air. Still the M1 has twice the battery life.
(I think there was one final intel round that had a reasonable keyboard, but I don't keep track enough to know if it was as good in other ways...)
Yeah the last intel macbooks were quite good but not so much incentive to upgrade over earlier macs, unlike the M1s.
Totally nailed it. 2016 to the M1 had Apple release trash product. The touch bar? A keyboard that doesn’t work? Garbage.
Apple's quarterly revenue is higher than Russia's annual defense expenditure. Let that sink in.

Now imagine if Apple wanted to use 1/3 of its net income to create a private military at the edge of technology.

(comment deleted)
Ok but what if they use 1/3 of their net income to revive the iPod?
Bring back the Creative Zen Vision M you cowards!

I loved that thing.

I imagine their shareholders wouldn't be very happy about it. And not sure what the "edge of technology" part means. Do you think Apple will somehow do a better job than DARPA, Northop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Blackwater/Academi etc. at killing people?
Apple could just squash the unhappy shareholders with its private army. Kill two birds with one stone. My plan is foolproof.

Fear will keep the shareholders in line.

(comment deleted)
The more they tighten their grip, the more equity investors will slip through their fingers.
Tim Cook on Apple’s pivot to a private military company: "I am altering the deal. Pray I do not alter it any further."
The fact that more than 95% of iPhones, AirPods, Macs and iPads are made in China will keep Apple in line...
The scope for a darkly comic Jony Ive product video voiceover parody on that though
Apple care subscribers will have the option to send killer drones after stolen items with iTags.
None of those companies attempt to operate any autonomous military bodies, they are purely suppliers or contractors. They are ineffective in the sense that they are simply following orders yes.
I would say not, but not because shareholders. More like they wold not be able to have the same talent pool available as now.

Most of software devs wouldn’t like to work on military tech. Not saying there are no smart people at Lockheed or Raytheon but I would argue there is less smart people willing to work for this types of companies.

Even if devs hate ads most would rather work on ad-tech than mil-tech.

I suspect this has much more to do with compensation and security clearances than the aggregate morals of software engineers.
I believe Apple already has background checks and all kinds of red tape on par with weapon manufacturers.

For compensation I also believe that weapon manufacturers pay high salaries already as well.

So I might be wrong but from my point of view as software dev - Apple is not producing actual weapons to be the only difference.

Looking at the boondoggle of performance and reliability that is the F35, I'd be willing to let Apple take a crack at it.
Apple’s quarterly revenue is higher than literally every country’s annual military budget except US and China.
They'd lose most of their customers and it would become one of the most studied downfall of a consumer company for the next few decades ?

Money is just money, having a ton of it doesn't mean you can actually use it for what you want.

The army would be used to make sure all USB-C factories are razed to the ground.
(comment deleted)
Were they underground before?
Thanks. Corrected. Having my own Human Spell Checker made me feel like a bit posh...
But approximately equal to the amount US sent Ukraine as “aid” in the 2022.
(comment deleted)
"And we think you're going to love it... or else!"
Weaker sales for second straight quarter.
Always impressed how simple their consolidated financials are! I have seen companies that make a few million with infinitely messier presentation of that data
It's more of occlusion than simplification. Apple has historically removed data from their public financials that don't support the narrative, the most notable example being unit sales.
This. Apple is the king of reporting their financials to draw attention to only the high performing categories - while refusing to share any useful data on their weak performing categories
This metric was historically misused (voluntarily?) by external analysts.

Apple was one of the few company releasing actual sales (they have a no stock model) while other relased shipments (unit are shipped but could be returned if not ultimately sold).

Since they stopped releasing this metric butchered analyses about market share comparing shipments vs sales almost totally stopped. It sad because units sold was a nice metric, but it was a smart move to fight bullshit.

> 2023 second quarter ended April 1, 2023

For all folks just as confused as me

You should see NVIDIA's fiscal calendar: they just finished Q1 2024 and will be reporting those results in three weeks.
That’s very common.
Just like we all know how to inverse a binary tree on here, right?

I get it, this is an intellectual place, but Q2 2023 was confusing for me as a non finance bro

The iPhone is the greatest product in human history.
I would say penicillin, but ok, whatever floats your boat I guess
I would put something between the plough and the full mechanisation of agriculture.

You can separate eras in human history by the the dramatic jumps in the amount of people that can be fed by a set amount of human labour.

I can't believe they're still selling so many of them. $220 billion yearly revenue is at least 220 million iPhones sold a year. Where are all these people buying new iPhones? I don't think they're really gaining market share in the US at least, so unless it's overseas market share growing people are just replacing their perfectly good phones from a few years ago for reasons I can't comprehend. I mean that's 3 out of every 100 people in the world buying an iPhone just in the last year.
Judging by iOS version market share [1] at least 95% of iOS devices were produced in the past 6 years (as the older ones don't support iOS 16). Given apple's 2 billion installed device base a 6-year replacement cycle yields 333 ("repeating, of course") million devices per year. Of course, some of those aren't iPhones, but also 6 years is probably longer than most people's replacement cycle.

[1] https://gs.statcounter.com/ios-version-market-share/all/unit...

(comment deleted)
> replacing their perfectly good phones from a few years ago

In many cases, they're not 'perfectly good'. Apple does backwards compatibility longer than most, but at some point, those old phones can't function as smart phones. Banking and health apps will require newer OS, and newer OS eventually means new device (for better or worse).

I just bought a 'new' iphone - used/refurb. Tru-depth camera broke. Replaced it ($170!). Whole phone broke a week after that anyway, out of warranty, and ... they offered to sell me a replacement for $399 (iphone 12 mini). I bought a refurb 13 mini from a 3rd party for $420, then got a $35 refund for minor cosmetic damage. That doesn't count in Apple's numbers, but I almost did. My 2.5 year old iphone mini wasn't "perfectly good" any more.

Also, for better or worse, people have multiple. Your employer may provide you with a work phone, and you'll have 2. It's not as prevalent as it used to be, but I still know a few folks who have a 'work' phone separate from personal.

It's still a lot of phones, no doubt. I don't plan to replace/upgrade mine for at least another 2 years, but my wife may need a new one should something happen to her iphone 11 in the next couple years.

> In many cases, they're not 'perfectly good'. Apple does backwards compatibility longer than most, but at some point, those old phones can't function as smart phones. Banking and health apps will require newer OS, and newer OS eventually means new device (for better or worse).

To add to this, each annual release of iOS does typically add a new feature or two that works only on the newest model(s). Sometimes, this is enough to generate an upgrade.

There's also a large amount of people that essentially "rent" their phone through a consistent upgrade pipeline via their carrier or Apple directly (basically never paying off the device directly).

I think you are on to something. Financial journalists should look in more detail.

I am in no way saying the results are not correct. But there are all kinds of smart ways to report revenue, like mandating your suppliers to stock your product and reporting those as sales.Same way car vendors report sales, when the cars in reality are still sitting at the dealers showrooms.

From my random data sample of 20 contacts, around 80% have Android phones and the other 20% with iPhones, nobody upgraded in the last two years...

iPhone has a close to 60% market share in the US so your sampling data is already way off base.
>reasons I can't comprehend

1. It continues to be true that a new phone is noticeably faster and has a noticeably better camera than a 3-year-old phone (regardless of how gross the reasons are).

2. Phones break.

3. Phones are lost.

4. Phones are given away.

5. Some batteries in the batch lose capacity faster than they should.

6. New phones are given as gifts to people who might have gone longer before buying a new phone with their own money.

7. Features.

Even regardless of all that, three doesn't seem unreasonable if you have the money. I seem to be able to go about five years before the battery life and performance become too painful (though it's hard to get an average with data points that far apart), and my tolerance for those issues is probably higher than a normal person.

There are certainly reasons I can comprehend. I guess it's just hard to see how those reasons lead to 100-200 million people who already had an iPhone getting a new one. I'm sure if I added all the reasons up it would seem obvious but it really does feel mind boggling at first that they're still able to sell so many after all these years.
On the earnings call, Tim’s answer to a question noted that the iPhone active install base is over 1 billion (of the over 2 billion total active devices).

At a replacement rate of 200 million per year, that’s 5 years to turn over the iPhone active install base. Replacing a 5 year old phone sounds pretty reasonable.

Earnings call transcript: https://sixcolors.com/post/2023/05/this-is-tim-apples-q2-202...

“The iPhone base is well over a billion active devices.”

Human history sounds like quite a tragedy.
Soap is the greatest product in human history. Nothing else even comes close, and many great inventions can be considered only possible due to it.

It has saved more lives than any other invention.

Thousands of times more (not an exaggeration) than the Polio vaccine and Penicillin combined -- and is largely credited for the making cities less deadly and allowing Babylon to exist (and have so many other advances for humanity)

I wonder if we swapped out "greatest" for "most successful", if that would/could be a true statement. Or, of course, what criteria we could even agree could substantiate the claim.
Don't you mean the lightbulb?
(comment deleted)
(comment deleted)
A lot of people have made the point that the m1 was too successful.

Even today, the m1 macbook air feels like a pretty good buy, taking into account the discount you can get on them.

Probably doesn't make a huge difference to Apples bottom line, though.

To first approximation, Apple doesn't even make laptops. The iPhone completely dominates revenue, something like 80% or thereabouts.
> The iPhone completely dominates revenue, something like 80% or thereabouts.

54%

https://sixcolors.com/post/2023/05/apple-q2-2023-results-94-...

What’s wild (to me) is how much the iPad has gradually grown in its proportion of the pie, especially as the pie itself grew. I know some people use it as their primary device, but it’s always felt intuitively niche to me despite knowing that. But the sales paint a very different picture, with iPads barely trailing Macs.
>Probably doesn't make a huge difference to Apples bottom line, though.

Why not? I imagine people using macOS are likelier to use iPhones. And then AirPods. And then Apple Watches. And monthly recurring revenue like Apple One bundles or iCloud Drive.

Having an additional entry point other than iPhone and iPad into the ecosystem must be very beneficial, especially when it is as no brainer as an M1 MacBook Air for so many people's use case.

(comment deleted)
Yes, personally M1 MacBook Air (8 GB of RAM!) is just great except, minimally, for the limitation on the number of external monitors. Using also a more powerful MacBook Pro (64 GB) with multiple external monitors but subpar in battery duration and portability comfort beyond the specs mentioned in the official Apple page.

BTW, Today I experienced a "Your system has run out of application memory" [1] in the Pro with the same usage that I give to the Air. Have not time to investigate further.

[1] https://discussions.apple.com/thread/253310137

Wait, my M1 MBP 32GB has outstanding battery life.
Both has outstanding battery life comparing to non Mx but the Air battery duration feels better.
Mine does too. I have no issues.
Displaylink solves the one monitor limit IMO.
Three external monitors? I saw mentions in Reddit but not final words about accurate DP splitters.
There goes my put options ;)
It’s amazing that apple that makes so much money for a company that isn’t rent seeking in the most general sense like oil or finance.

They’re honestly in a highly competitive industry, even considering their monopolistic practices. Their execution is really good.

Apple will be discussed in business classes for a long time after it inevitably is supplanted.

(comment deleted)
Except for the 30% rent the seek for using their app store.
Sure, but that’s not a given like say sitting on a bunch of oil reserves.
Yeah, oil reserves take ongoing effort to dig up & mine.
What monopolistic practices? They aren't buying competitors like Lenovo and shutting them down. They're just building a good product that people want to buy.
They notoriously strong arm their suppliers. I won’t say I wouldn’t do the same in their position but it is what it is
If that were enough to be a monopolistic practice then Walmart would have been shutdown decades ago. That's just how business is done in the US.
Walmart also has had monopolistic practices, yes. Not sure where you got shut down from.
I am surprised their sales didn't collapse in the EU given the massive price hike and not making their products cheaper when Euro rose again, like what Nvidia did.
Apple is now making $20bn on just service PER QUARTER. This is their failed product.
What’s insane to me is that, I just looked up all their biggest competitors in each category

Netflix was 8.18B the same quarter. Spotify was 3.17 Peloton was 0.8 Dropbox was 0.6

Edit: people pointed out the App Store might be included too. Which I see google play at something like 10B last quarter

That means Apple is doing the same in services as all their biggest competitors combined for stuff that comes under services.

I’m sure I’m leaving off stuff , like there are probably better services to pick in each, but still truly insane numbers.

Even crazier because outside of Apple TV+, I barely ever hear people using Apple services. TV+still doesn’t have the content quantity and range to compete with Netflix either.

I would think iCloud is their biggest seller, considering the price and utility to almost all iPhone users.
Yeah for sure. I would guess storage, music, tv, fitness and arcade, news in that order.
1) App Store

2) Everything else

Apple "services" revenue includes the App Store. So their biggest competitor is the Google Play Store.
Ah good point. Though even then, I looked up googles annual revenue for 2022 on the play store and it’s some 40B for the year (can’t find quarterly for some reason).

That’s still impressive for Apple given everything totalled from their top competitors is roughly equal to their own services.

AppleCare+ is also included in services revenue.

I believe Google's special deal with Apple to be the default search engine in Safari is a part of services revenue.

I can't believe they're still selling so many iPhones. $220 billion yearly revenue is at least 220 million iPhones sold a year. Where are all these people buying new iPhones? I don't think they're really gaining market share in the US at least, so unless it's overseas market share growing people are just replacing their perfectly good phones from a few years ago for reasons I can't comprehend. I mean that's 3 out of every 100 people in the world buying an iPhone just in the last year.