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Good news for home buyers!
Not really the interest rates are unaffordable for anyone that needs to take out a loan to buy their first house.

Great for cash buyers...

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Bigger opportunity cost for cash buyers...
have you been to SF recently though? Would you like to raise a family there?
Definitely not downtown but there are many nice pockets for families.
If houses in hot markets truly had economic / inherent value, for example the quality of life improvement / job opportunities, then that can’t really be lost.
Job opportunities in the bay have clearly soured over the last year. So yes, real value has been lost.
In that case, if houses are so correlated to the swings of the job market, maybe they aren’t such good investments after all.
it's always risky to buy high in a bubble
The article nitpicks on some of the most pressing issues that were so many times discussed. But I find this bit to be absolutely hilarious:

> In 2018, the city created a pooper scooper team, each member of which received annual compensation of about $211,000 that year. Given the inflation that has occurred since that time, scooper compensation may be close to $250,000 per year today.

Do NYC have this team? When I went there I saw a couple massive shits on those covered sidewalks
No way that's real right? That's more than junior engineers at FAANG
Do junior FAANG engineers have to pick up human waste? IMO, "dirty work" deserves the paycheck.
Are these real jobs? Where are they operating and has anyone verified their effectiveness? In the last decade, I haven’t seen the poop problem get any better in the Mission, SoMA, and the Tenderloin…
> Are these real jobs? Where are they operating and has anyone verified their effectiveness? In the last decade, I haven’t seen the poop problem get any better in the Mission, SoMA, and the Tenderloin…

It's interesting to note which jobs get this treatment ("is X doing its job? The problem X supposedly solves isn't getting any better) and which jobs get the opposite treatment ("X is clearly necessary, because without them the problem X solves would be even worse).

I’d say the same thing about the billion+ a year the city spends on homeless “programs”
Most engineers at FAANGs cost significantly more than 200K in net employer costs, which is what that number actually represents. As noted elsewhere in the thread, the actual take-home for these municipal workers is $71K, pre-tax.
Article from 2018 about it: https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-poop-patrol-em...

> As members of the city's "Poop Patrol," workers are entitled to $71,760 a year, plus an additional $112,918 in benefits, such as healthcare and retirement savings, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

> In August, the city announced that five staffers from the San Francisco Department of Public Works would soon roam the Tenderloin neighborhood — where nearly half of the city's homeless population is — in search of waste. The staffers will begin their efforts each afternoon equipped with a steam cleaner for sanitizing the streets

I'm willing to be that some digging would probably find this to be a gross misrepresentation (remember the McDonalds coffee? Where a cup of coffee was served too hot, in order to reduce costs, and that caused three degree burns to an old women? And that was spun as "the legal system is broken"?)

There is a concentrated effort to make CA, and especially SF, fail, as an excuse to regress. And when SF (and NYC, where there's also a similar effort) regress, the rest will follow. Just see what happened with the DA recall: since then, crime has risen, spend on policing has risen, and we jail more people unnecessarily.

Edit: ha! While I posted that, someone indeed found that number isn't the real comp. The number is $71k.

transplants voting on half baked empathic ideas they'll never be around to experience the consequence of? that's not a concerted effort to make a city fail

its not that complicated

So that’s why they are still going for over asking
bought my condo in 2018. in the wrong part of town

redfin says I'm down 30% at least

debating whether to cut my losses - with tech companies gone, mass transit on the brink, and the city in a tailspin, I have this nightmare scenario in my head where prices end up 1/10th of what I paid

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It's not a loss of 30% if the 5+ years you have lived there have been trouble free. Just normal depreciation.
it was until the pandemic. I picked that area for a very short commute, a 10 minute walk. It was great. Then the pandemic happened, everyone is working from home and the area is barren ghost town now

at the time soma was selling for as much or more than premium neighborhoods. lesson learned. Now those areas have actually appreciated

> In 2018, the city created a pooper scooper team, each member of which received annual compensation of about $211,000 that year. Given the inflation that has occurred since that time, scooper compensation may be close to $250,000 per year today.

I needed to read this to convince myself that I’m not asking for or expecting outrageous compensation at work.

This is grift masquerading as public services.
That’s actually more than several engineers I know who work in the bay. What a wild wild city SF is (and not in a good way).
I mean, you could be picking up human shit instead.
based on the salary I kind of assumed that was part if it... come to think of it Ive technically picked up more human turds than dog turds on my hobbiest-level neighborhood cleanup efforts in the wider bay area... but Ive spent infinitely more time and energy cleaning up garbage and abandoned furniture from encampments... :shrug:
I dunno, I get the skilled vs unskilled thing, but I'd take a haircut on pay to not have to walk around looking for poop to pick up...
I dunno, I would rather take the job security instead of the constant threat of downsizing letter from CEO proclaiming what an incredibly difficult decision it has been while planning their next luxury holiday in the Mediterranean.
Fair point, but those jobs are also just one admin change away from someone changing the pay to a more realistic rate of 20 something an hour.
I already do it for free. $200k to be able to hang out outside with a pooper scooper all day sounds like paradise.
This is a bit misleading on purpose. The city reports the total cost of the role, not the pay.

Many tech roles total cost is more than 1.5x-2x their salaries.

They're not quoting the total cost of the role. They're quoting total compensation.

What tech roles provide defined benefit pension schemes?

I often describe myself as a digital janitor clearing up poop all day.

Where do i sign up for £170k a year?

That number, of course, is made up. The real paycheck for the scoopers is ~$71k:

"As members of the city's "Poop Patrol," workers are entitled to $71,760 a year, plus an additional $112,918 in benefits, such as healthcare and retirement savings, the San Francisco Chronicle reported." (https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-poop-patrol-em...)

Want to reduce that cost further? Nationalize health care and increase social security.

I don’t understand—don’t benefits typically make up around 30% of all compensation in the US? Why are the insurance/retirement costs so high in this particular case?
Depends on the job, but in my experience no, it's closer to 50%.

In general, government jobs have even better insurance and retirement benefits than a "regular" job. CALPRS requires retirement contributions in the neighborhood of 30% of salary

If this is CalPERS, CalPERS is about 70% funded. Which means that a huge chunk of the $112k in "benefits" for these workers is actually being used to compensate for pension fund deficits for prior employees. In no actual way are these 'top-up' funds actually a benefit for the new pooper-scooper employees who are technically getting credited with the "benefit" as part of their total compensation.

Among benefits I think only pensions are averaged across all employees in this way. Even health care insurance varies based on which of the insurance options an individual employee picks. And payroll taxes (social security, at least) cap out somewhere in the low 6 figures.

This is 160% though. Something is off.
112k/yr for health insurance seems high. How large is the SF retirement benefit?
As others have pointed out, it's likely the retirement portion is large but won't go to these particular employees when they retire. Instead, it's likely the city pension fund is underfunded for current retirees so extra for every current employee is budgeted to go into the fund to make up for it.

Budgeting rules may also require that they allocate enough for each employee in case they all have families of 4 or larger when in fact many will have only one or two people in their household.

Even though the amount over the salary was called "mandated benefits," it likely also includes non-benefit costs like payroll taxes.

Even so, budgeting over 100% for non-salary costs per-employee is hard for me to get my head around; a bad pension situation seems like the most plausible expanation (or the original reporting [0] was wrong, they didn't show their work).

[0] https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/matier-ross/article/Bree...

aye - the top line number seems indicative of something else at work. Perhaps the City budgeted the tools/services/equipment needs of these employees on a per employee basis? I could easily imagine a city employee in SF cleaning poop needs a not insubstantial amount of budget for waste disposal, cleaning equipment, hazard insurance etc.
Relatedly, I run a Twitter bot that tweets every time a poop is reported to the city: https://twitter.com/poopscoopsf

(After many years of running, the bot seems broken. Not sure if I’ll fix it this time.)

That's a tough follow
It’s a dirty job, just like any other tech job, where you have to clean up the previous guys mess. Except, in the tech world, the mess-makers make out like bandits, go on to become directors, senior directors, vice presidents, etc. The ability to make messes is highly rewarded.
I've thought often about the economic power of a large number of well compensated people, but this is staggering "Between 2019 and 2021, San Francisco lost nearly $15 billion of household income, even after accounting for those who moved into the city."
That surely will have local repercussions, I don’t see how it couldn’t. The tax revenue and local spend changes have to be hammering local business.
I'm tempted to think that the impact on the tax base is the larger piece here, since wealth at some point doesn't contribute that much more to local businesses (e.g., I think the number of people is more relevant for business impacts, whereas the income is more relevant to taxation).

I'm also not sure how this accounts for changes in income, as in maybe the people leaving are simply more senior than those coming in, amd this could be a normalish situation? E.g., if there's some normal increase in income levels of people staying in the city and then some portion of very well compensated people leaving, there could be an equilibrium.

The missing piece then is the change in income for people that didn't move.

The expectation that homes won't deprecate like most assets do is an anomaly.
Local and state governments suck every drop out of the three legged stool. Poor planning really.
It’s not really depreciation, it’s the absence of surge pricing
Is it though? The homes themselves do depreciate (nobody wants a 1970s house with no aircon that hasn't been repaired or renovated), it's just that the price of the land which the house is situated on increases faster, because it's not like the land loses any value from having somebody live there.

The more people move into an area, the more demand there is for that land, so the more its price increases. The only reason you'd expect the price to decrease would be because people don't want to move there anymore because of new areas that are more desirable or something negatively impacts the desirability of the area.

This logic only works if you ignore the fact that housing prices have been juiced even in areas experiencing population decline and economic blight. I live in upstate NY and housing prices have tripled in my town despite no actual growth occurring here in decades, with more entry level jobs evaporating here every few years with local industries continuing the trend of closing up shop.

It's also highly dubious that any land in SF can be considered higher value due to the rampant crime issues. I really don't understand how anyone would want to buy a home or live in one where there a daily risk to waking up to a home invasion, your car being pilfered through, literal human shit on your doorstep, etc. All in a place where cost of living is 2-3x higher than nearly every other part of the country. It's laughable.

Generally speaking the people who live in SF aren't comparing SF to Boise, they are comparing SF to other elite cities like NYC, LA, Boston, Austin, etc. And the COL is not 2-3x higher in SF than those other cities.

Also as a little story about how crime infested SF is, a couple years ago my wife accidentally left her key ring in the lock on our front door (which included car keys to a car right out front), where they stayed for the next ~18 hours, right in obvious public view from the street, until we noticed the next morning. And lo and behold the crime was so bad that the keys were right there the next morning and we had a nice laugh about it.

The government can only keep interest rates artificially high for so long. Once they go down again, housing prices are going to explode.

There's no way to reverse printing 13 trillion dollars in corona stimulus.. the damage has been done.

The housing market is unique in that interest rates did absolutely nothing to housing prices. But it was entirely expected. When you couple low supply with people who have 2-3% interest rates, you create an absolutely massive shortage on the supply side. Why would a current home owner EVER sell their house right now? Not only are the prices outrageous, but you’ll be paying 7% interest. Even if you have to sell, you’re better off renting and picketing the difference. It’s madness.
I think the market is pretty locked due to this and akin to having no liquidity.
As pointed out in the article the lions share of losses are in Pac Heights and Nob Hill due to the outsized prices already there.

I rent a home there that fluctuates between 7 million and 5 million over the course of the pandemic and I watched a neighbor poor over 100! Million into a house when he thought things were only going up.

That being said most people here don’t ever sell really. You just hold and buy another home someplace else. It’s a funny place.

So the loses are not real until they are realized. That being said I don’t think the city is headed in a positive direction anytime in the next 5 years.

What kind of home did he get for 100 million?
He purchased it for 25 million and poured another 100 million into it.

But it is the most impressive home in San Francisco. Right across from the Lyon steps. You can’t miss it. The only one that you have to crane your neck to see all 5+ stories of it.

The Redfin YoY price change he quotes is a median price change.

He then extrapolates a median price change on the entire market to calculate the “$260B” change in asset valuations. That is dubious at best for a monthly volume of ~500 sales…

compared with Seoul and Hangzhou, this 16.7% seems such a mild decline.
As with previous articles from this source[1], this article contains misleading editorializations: the "pooper scooper" compensation number includes the government's retirement and insurance obligations, and doesn't reflect anywhere close to actual take-home pay[2].

I'm not a SF resident, and have no particular loyalty to it (or any particular interest in defending its municipal policies). But the author (and publication at large) seem to be interested primarily in gleeful portrayals of SF's collapse, with factuality as a distant concern.

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35857223

[2]: https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-poop-patrol-em...

Public employees typically receive a larger portion of their total compensation as retirement benefits, than do typical employees at private companies.

Given this difference, it seems like it would be misleading not to quote total compensation.

The misleading nature is the implication that SF's public servants are, on average, taking anywhere close to 200k in TC home.

We can have a conversation about pensions and retirement funding if you'd like, but that isn't mentioned anywhere in the article. Instead, the article moves to imply that city employees are lining their pockets, when they aren't.

Why is the implication misleading? Because there’s a vest period on their total compensation? Isn’t it standard to quote total comp as salary plus equity even if the equity takes years to vest? Why have it be different for a city employee?
> Isn’t it standard to quote total comp as salary plus equity even if the equity takes years to vest?

This isn't how pensions or civil retirement plans work. Contributions during an individual's career result in predictable and proportional fractional payouts after retirement or leaving the civil system.

Again: the implication is that civil servants are somehow making out like bandits here, when 71k take-home is well below the average SF salary[1].

Edit: And to tie a knot around it: no tech job I'm aware of includes the "market" value of their insurance plan or matching schemes in their TC numbers. These would be closer analogues for what's happening here.

[1]: https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Salaries/-in-San-Francisco,CA

So you’re saying that contributions, which are paid for by the employer, result in predictable and proportional payouts after some vesting period.

I see. So why shouldn’t it be considered a part of total compensation?

The rest of the benefits not being included in TC I agree with.

I realized I made a mistake in this thread: I'm conflating TC and take-home, when my point really only applies to take-home. Sorry for that!

You're right that pension benefits can be reasonably included in a TC calculation; I'd still argue that the article's framing is meant to imply that TC here reflects a larger take-home than it actually does, as well as malfeasance on SF's part (rather than ordinary and boring funding obligations).

Equity belongs to your estate after your death, and will be a permanent obligation of the company (unless it buys back the shares). At best a pension can be partially transferred to your spouse after your death, but after the death of both you, and if you elected the option of a reduced pension to have it apply to your spouse, your spouse, the pension disappears entirely from your estate.

This makes comparing a pension to equity, or even a 401(k), problematic in respects. A pension is an annuity, and should be calculated as such.

TC is TC whether people 'take it home' now or after they retire.

Most people have to save for their retirement, and hope to have enough money to pay for healthcare and living expenses until their final days.

City employees have no such need and don't suffer such uncertainty.

They can retire at 65 and, no matter how long they live, never have to worry about healthcare or living costs.

I'm not aware of any ordinary scenario in which estimated insurance or pension funding obligations are included in compensation figures. The compensation figure you receive from your employer almost certainly doesn't include your insurance costs to them, or your employer's expected costs from matching or other advantaged schemes that you choose to participate in.

For a public employer like the SF, both are at least partially just migrated spreadsheet cells. Neither is directly realizable by the employee, and quoting them in a take-home number only serves to imply otherwise.

Edit: I've realized I've conflated TC and take-home with my second comment in this sub-thread (but not the original comment). You can consider things like pension funding part of TC in a meaningful sense; the larger point about the article's editorialization still stands (since pension funding doesn't change annual take-home numbers).

  I'm not aware of any ordinary scenario in which estimated insurance or pension funding obligations are included in compensation figures.
That's because private companies don't have _estimated_ pension funding obligations. I'm not aware of any private employer in the US which makes job offers that include a defined benefit retirement plan.

They either do some specific % 401(k) match, or they don't. In either case, the % is known and you factor it in as part of your total compensation when you compare employers.

For most private employers, the % they will contribute to your pension is zero or a single digit percentage.

  Neither is directly realizable by the employee
It's realized after retirement, as I said earlier. I don't know whether you genuinely believe that money received after retirement doesn't count, but I think I'll stop repeating myself now :)
> It's realized after retirement, as I said earlier. I don't know whether you genuinely believe that money received after retirement doesn't count, but I think I'll stop repeating myself now :)

It doesn't count in annual take-home. The original article implies (through singling out) that these "poop patrol" employees are somehow being disproportionately enriched, when the reality is that their take-home is ordinary for civil servants in SF (and below the city's average take-home).

Being below the average take-home makes sense, in turn, given that the position is pensioned. But the article makes this staid arrangement sound like graft.

> It's realized after retirement

If any of those funds are being used to fill prior unfunded obligations then they will not be realized by the employee after retirement, but by other civil service retirees. It's typical that the employer will post a single defined percent of salary toward the pension fund for all employees, not a varying percent depending on the expected funding status of each individual employee. This means that if a pension plan isn't fully funded the employer needs to increase this percent for every employee even though the top-up funds are really only going to backstop the pensions of previously hired employees. Yet this top-up percent will be calculated as part of the total "compensation" for the more newly hired employees.

At least I am assuming this is how it works given how the pension works at my employer.

Even if this is true, the (future) top-up for these employees is likely to be higher than today's top-up (for past employees), because people are living longer.
These expectations are calculated into the funding obligation. They may be off, they may be overshoots. The last couple of years life expectancy receded by a couple of years to what it was on average in 1996. https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/why-life-expectancy-in-t...

At least for the next few years they're unlikely to pay less than is necessary per employee (and in fact pay much more than is necessary). In my job the employer contribution to the pension is about 14% (with the employee contribution about 7% - 9% depending on pension tier), which is making up for a period of time in the late 90s when the contribution was low single digits (IIRC). We're unlikely to see those underfundingly low contribution rates anytime soon.

A pension is an annuity, and should be calculated like annuities when determining the benefit received on a per-employee basis.

Yeah gleeful is an apt descriptor for the vibe there. It got non-objective pretty abruptly at the end imho...

> There are tens of thousands of mothers, fathers, brothers, sisters, sons, and daughters of San Francisco drug addicts who likely feel the same way as Berlinn [mother of an addict who disagrees with SF drug policies]. They should be heard, and new policies should be implemented to get drug use off the streets, provide support for those struggling with addiction, and return functionality to a city that lost its bearings so many years ago.

I mean as a frustrated hippie idealist SF native hypocrite I think I totally agree... but thats just like, you know, your opinion man?

In 2018, the SF median household income was $97k [1], which suggests a median individual income of about $76k [2]. An average private-sector employee receives benefits worth 42% of their wages/salary [3]. So a hypothetical median SF worker earning $76k in salary would receive about $32k in benefits, for about $108k total.

So it seems to me that the "pooper scoopers" combined salary+benefits of $184k really is, in fact, extraordinarily high.

(No comment on the rest of the article.)

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/weath-maps-cities-san-franci...

[2] https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publicatio... (I took the nationwide ratio of "$71k median household income" to "$56k median individual full-time year-round worker income" and estimated that the same ratio also applied to SF.)

[3] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.nr0.htm

> the "pooper scooper" compensation number includes the government's retirement and insurance obligations

Thank you, this is very important information. I believe that for my job a lot of the money being put into the pension on "my" behalf is to cover unfunded obligations taken out for other people long before I had this job. So these payments aren't for my benefit, but for the average benefit of the entire pension fund.

I’ll be moving to SF in the next month. Anecdotally rents are still hovering at ~3.3k in the mission to ~4k in e.g polk gulch.

1b1b, 750sqft

If you own a home, and it goes up in "value" 50%, and then back down without you ever selling, does that mean you "lost" that 50%?
Of course not, it's just a good headline. Only if you bought or sold or used them for leverage.
Yes.

Its more obvious with something tangible. If I give you a $100 bill, and then you drop it down a drain, have you lost it? Of course you have.

The same is true for the value of assets though. You had the opportunity to cash it in by selling, you could have secured a loan against the value, you had the status of the wealth of owning a more expensive home. Those things have real implications on your life, and now you don't have them. It doesn't really matter that it's not actual cash.

You always need somewhere to live, so you can only "sell high" if that means you can "buy low" somewhere else. If all bay area houses go up 10%, then you haven't actually gained anything assuming you still want to live in the bay area.

You also lose at least 5-6% of the value of real estate every time you buy or sell. So given that buying/selling real estate is complicated and expensive, and moving is complicated and expensive, for the vast majority of people, the value of the house going up and down _in the short term_ is mostly irrelevant.

housing as an asset/investment who's value needs to keeps rising is a big contributer to homelessness. If Dense affordable housing isn't created because of the vested interests of the home owners worried about their properties losing value then they are partly to blame..
This article and lots of the commenters are falling into the same trap that happens in every article about San Francisco. It states:

> In 2018, the city created a pooper scooper team, each member of which received annual compensation of about $211,000 that year.

The implication of a $211K salary sounds too ridiculous to be true. And instead of assuming that it is therefore false, people freak out. If you look up an actual article from the time [1], you'll see that the claim is already not true purely by the numbers:

> workers make more than $184,000 a year in salary and benefits

And if you dig in further you'll see that "and benefits" is a huge caveat:

> Employees of San Francisco's "Poop Patrol" are set to earn $71,760 a year, plus an additional $112,918 in benefits, such as healthcare and retirement savings, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

That $112K in benefits includes health care benefits (which are mandated for city workers, which is a good thing). And health care—if you've been paying attention—is completely fucked in the US, so any attempt at pricing it is going to sound ridiculous. The workers don't actually see any of that money.

If you take the $72K in salary, you'll see that it is below average for San Francisco:

> On average, a San Francisco resident earns about $96,677 a year, nearly double the median household income in the US.

And "below average" is what you'd probably assume a sanitation worker makes. So a huge amount of outrage over nothing.

Which would personally lead me to flag this story, rather than trust any of the other numbers its quoting.

[1]: https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-poop-patrol-em...

I'm pretty sure in the last year plus with interest rate increases, the value of "for sale" real estate across the "bay area" from napa/sonoma down to monterey county, maybe lost value in the billions, but $260bil? no.

Look at sales, yes, they have slowed, but demand is still incredibly high. My primary residence is in a rural county north of Truckee/Tahoe - housing prices in the last 7 years have doubled or more (wide area, wide variation), truckee/tahoe way worse.

I don't see the argument even if you extend it beyond the city. Santa Cruz - houses picked up for $1m or more turned into student ghettos pulling in $5-7k/mo in rent. (my other neighborhood).

260b is a load of bs.

This is great news for the housing affordability crisis. Sure we should build more housing and that helps an incremental amount, but reducing home value across the board is a much bigger lever. Of course there’s many interests that understandably want to keep home values up so we only focus on the supply side of the problem.
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They collected so much tax, where did they use it for?
there is an obsession with the "pooper scooper team" which is a small part of the article. There is also a general issue on HN which comes from certain demographics crawling all over themselves to show they are superior to SF's civic and cultural issues because their own slumdog country they shit all over in private posts.

San Francisco has issues, the main one being it has become too popular with a certain set of TC chasers and chasing out any cultural doversity (sorry desi/indian culture isn't one of those). We've lost blues venues, drag venues many others because of the BS TC uber alles from a certain segment of the tech crowd prior to covid. That same group is panties in a bunch to return to office because of whatever. You have one or the other, not both.

And, this will get me down voted, but fuck the indian community TC chasers (biggest part of the comnunity, but there are others) for ruining the bay area. I hear it from friend from SF to Morgan Hill.

The guys I worked with 20 years ago were different. It was about building things and helping others, not stomping on people to make your next move.

“Washoe County, Nevada, site of Lake Tahoe, another ski resort, brought in 333 San Franciscans, with an average AGI of well over $300,000.”

Lake Tahoe, the ski resort. Ahem.