Going public is a one-shot deal to pay off investors and bring in new capital. Companies will prefer to do that when there is less uncertainty in the markets currently due to the tariffs, government shutdown, impending expiry of healthcare insurance premiums and personal income tax cuts.
OAI's target IPO is forecasted to be the largest ever, so if that flopped, it would cast doubt over its long term profitability.
It's interesting because if Trump falls for this, at it fuels an even bigger bubble than is already going and Fed can't lower interest rates, then it will destroy his part in the midterms. If he can't bring down costs and interest rates people are going to freak out, that's clear from the polls. Where most people in the country are at in the moment is a precarious one step away from ruin while watching prices going and interest rates stay. That's not Sam's reality but most people are struggling and if Sam hordes all the resources to him, people are going to revolt.
It's an admission that they think it's quite likely they go bust. Of course they'll try to put the taxpayer on the hook, without giving much upside back if they succeed.
I think its an obvious escape hatch: oh well they told us we dont get all the money we need so thats why AI sucks... economy will collapse now and its everyone elses fault except us
I've been using the gpt-oss 20b parameter model on my laptop and it works great. Doesn't reject giving legal or medical advice either. Obviously not good enough for coding, but seems like 'useful AI assistant for daily life' is in overshoot.
That’s great, but not a reason for taxpayers to get involved and be on the hook for massive risky investments.
OpenAI doesn’t need government financial backing for investment. The government has more pressing priorities to address with the money they take from us first.
Somewhere a doctor is happy he found a model that's good enough for coding but he thinks, I'm certainly not dumb enough to use this for medical advice.
does anyone have the slightest idea on how much open AI is currently earning in terms of revenue per quarter vs how much money they are actually burning per quarter? What is their userbase? 1 billion? What is the upside basically is my question
It would be utterly nonsensical for the US to take this deal. The easy alternative would be to subsidize GPU datacenter buildouts on favorable terms with nvidia/accelerator providers. OpenAI/Anthropic amd everyone else could then competitively bid on access.
I guarantee you that openai would leverage this deal to the gills and come back for more.
I don't get why they are trying so hard to keep this from the front page, they're doing everything they can to nerf it. It's all over the internet at this point.
Edit: Streisand effect this clownery, show them how the internet works.
If the government wanted to pump USD$1T into the economy, is investment into a stack of sheds full of rapidly depreciating computers the most effective use of USD$1T?
Some example contrasting options:
- Worldwide investment in 300mm wafer fab equipment is projected to be USD$107-138B per year through to 2028.[1] USD$1T buys 100% of the global production of 300mm wafer fab equipment for about 7 years.
- European Union countries are projected to spend approximately USD$250B on electricity generation and transmission infrastructure projects in 2025.[2] The US is projected to spend a similar amount.[3] China is projected to spend approximately USD$460B.[4] USD$1T buys 4 years worth of European Union or US expenditure on electricity generation and transmission infrastructure, or 2 years worth of Chinese expenditure.
- Worldwide biopharmaceutical R&D was estimated to amount to USD$276B in 2021.[5] More conservative estimates include USD$102 in 2024.[6] Using the larger estimate, USD$1T buys 3.5 years of global biopharmaceutical R&D.
The Open in Open AI maybe the most inaccurate advertising ever. I am sensing they realised there is no way of making the cash they need to keep going, just by providing what they currently provide, and I am not remotely upset by that. Sam Altman was never the saviour or god that many foolishly thought and thankfully it hasn't taken long to be clear.
Federal loan guarantees, aka the equivalent of a Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac style backstop that fuelled the reckless lending and opaque securitization of mortgages that led to the 2008 crisis.
You think that Trump won't demand something in return for this?
I keep telling everyone I know that AI will be enshitified just like every other internet business. Tell me why the incentives will be different this time around.
Putting yourself in hock to an aspiring authoritarian is certainly one way to supercharge that process.
Altman tweeted that the stuff in that article isn't right. Expcerts:
>we do not have or want government guarantees for OpenAI datacenters
>What we do think might make sense is governments building (and owning) their own AI infrastructure
>The one area where we have discussed loan guarantees is as part of supporting the buildout of semiconductor fabs in the US, where we and other companies have responded to the government’s call and where we would be happy to help (though we did not formally apply)
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[ 2.9 ms ] story [ 52.4 ms ] threadI thought the whole point of going public was to tap the broader market for liquidity? Maybe they should SPAC lol.
Wasn’t that just in the news?
OAI's target IPO is forecasted to be the largest ever, so if that flopped, it would cast doubt over its long term profitability.
If that $1.4T doesn’t have any actual returns for a few years, I would expect significant inflation from what is effectively a stimulus.
OpenAI doesn’t need government financial backing for investment. The government has more pressing priorities to address with the money they take from us first.
I guarantee you that openai would leverage this deal to the gills and come back for more.
Edit: Streisand effect this clownery, show them how the internet works.
As a private person you can't even buy any upside into it directly. Without equity why would the US govt ever take a deal like this?
Some example contrasting options:
- Worldwide investment in 300mm wafer fab equipment is projected to be USD$107-138B per year through to 2028.[1] USD$1T buys 100% of the global production of 300mm wafer fab equipment for about 7 years.
- European Union countries are projected to spend approximately USD$250B on electricity generation and transmission infrastructure projects in 2025.[2] The US is projected to spend a similar amount.[3] China is projected to spend approximately USD$460B.[4] USD$1T buys 4 years worth of European Union or US expenditure on electricity generation and transmission infrastructure, or 2 years worth of Chinese expenditure.
- Worldwide biopharmaceutical R&D was estimated to amount to USD$276B in 2021.[5] More conservative estimates include USD$102 in 2024.[6] Using the larger estimate, USD$1T buys 3.5 years of global biopharmaceutical R&D.
[1] https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/10/14/news-2nm-race-dri...
[2] https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2025/eur...
[3] https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2025/uni...
[4] https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2025/chi...
[5] doi:10.1038/d41573-024-00131-2 (https://www.analysisgroup.com/globalassets/insights/publishi...)
[6] https://www.iqvia.com/blogs/2025/06/global-trends-in-r-and-d...
What a complete circus.
I keep telling everyone I know that AI will be enshitified just like every other internet business. Tell me why the incentives will be different this time around. Putting yourself in hock to an aspiring authoritarian is certainly one way to supercharge that process.
>we do not have or want government guarantees for OpenAI datacenters
>What we do think might make sense is governments building (and owning) their own AI infrastructure
>The one area where we have discussed loan guarantees is as part of supporting the buildout of semiconductor fabs in the US, where we and other companies have responded to the government’s call and where we would be happy to help (though we did not formally apply)
and some other stuff https://x.com/sama/status/1986514377470845007