Study claims iPhone contributed to a significant decrease in the birth rate after its release in 2007, when AT&T was the only carrier for the phone, allowing researchers to “isolate an iPhone-specific channel” and compare birth rates in areas with a high AT&T customer base to competitors' areas:
“The diffusion of the iPhone explains 33-52 percent of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15-44.”
The authors do address this issue, by reweighting their treatment and control counties on observable covariates. But I agree with you that this isn’t the causally watertight research design that economists usually strive for.
It might be worthwhile using local lightning strikes as an instrument for 3G coverage. Others have done this, but not for fertility afaik. But the lightning strike data costs about $1000.
There's a subgenre of dystopian sci-fi where the premise is that reality in general is destined to be eclipsed by matrix-like hyper-realities, and that people will vastly prefer those and cede reality to whoever's left.
I guess the way this could work itself out is that if you prefer a hyper-reality, your genes do not pass on, and someone else's do, and within some number of generations we bounce back in response to evolutionary pressure.
I learned a fun fact in a recent interview of David Reich (by Dwarkesh):
> Every mutation that can occur does occur. There are eight billion people in the world. There are maybe 30 new mutations every generation, so that’s 240 billion new point mutations every generation. There are only three billion DNA bases in the genome, so every mutation that can occur does occur about 100 times every generation. We’re not mutation-limited anymore.
However, medical care isn't evenly distributed, neither is education, and there's tons of cultural differences as well. The mutations happen, but if the next Einstein or Ramanujan dies in a war-torn ghetto, did the mutation really happen?
Interesting. It hadn't occurred to me that The Matrix would become more ubiquitous, but it seems there are plenty of mechanisms from avoiding that. People read novels 200 years ago, and i imagine that was a bit of blue pilling.
In this modern world where highly effective birth control is cheap and straightforward, we really need to stop equating fertility rates with levels of sexual activity. You can have plenty of sex and not have a child; you can have very little sex and have a substantial number of children.
It's fascinating to me how personal choice never seems to enter into these discussions, even in relatively highly educated, first-world democracies. I actively chose to not have kids -- it was not an accidental by-product of iphones or any other proposed environmental factor.
The most absolutely infuriating thing about fertility rate discussions is the conclusion everyone draws of "obviously people aren't having enough sex".
I was sexually active for over 15 years before having exactly 1 child when I decided to.
The limiting factor in the number of children I have has at no point been the frequency of intercourse itself.
Unless you have surgically implemented birth control, the pregnancy chance logically increases with higher rate of sexual activity. Mistakes happen and birth control is not 100% effective.. condoms break, women forget to take the pill, etc.
Also should note that this is a working paper and not peer reviewed. Working papers are circulated to invite comments and discussion. Until some experts confirm their methodology I wouldn't take any of this for granted.
Seriously though, I'm gay so if I want I can literally go to a sex club and have sex, but scrolling is 100 times better than sex with a random person.
IMO the problem isn't that we choose scrolling over sex, but that having a smartphone makes independence easier, which removes opportunities and motivation to meet people. People talk to each other mainly when they need to solve practical problems. Remove practical problems and you remove social interaction.
I remember clearly that when my ex fixed my bike I had a strong impulse of being attracted to him. But realistically, when my bike is broken, I'd rather take it to a bike shop than ask someone for help and then do favors in exchange.
I don’t want to be flippantly dismissive but surely there was a certain other event in 2008 that caused many families to reconsider the financial wisdom of starting a family.
What makes an iPhone better than Durex is that you can take it out of your pocket and everyone will envy you. In that sense, I think it's an envy-inducing contraceptive tool.
That might only be part of the issue. There has been some "experiments" where people are asked if they'd prefer to give up their phone for some period of time, or go without sex in that same period. Women were more likely to prefer their phones over sex and other studies show that women generally spend more time on their phones than men does.
at this point the number of young men wanting a family is higher than women. meanwhile there are more women having sex or in a relationship than man, how that is possible when the population ratio is almost 50/50 i leave as a exorcise for the reader...
It is "birth control" but in sort of opposite way. People are now much better informed, thanks to internet and devices like iphone. They do not have to relly on state education (that wants more babies) and popular shows like Friends.
State founded school is not going to tell you it costs $1200000 to raise baby, or you have 50% chance it will be taken away.
It will also push stats made in lab controlled conditions, and gloss over unreliability of such medications in real life (like if you would skip a pill for a few days).
Failure rate of birth control in normal life is around 10% per year (if you drink, forget to take pill at very exact time, use antibiotics). So there would be about chance 50% to get unwanted baby over years. Well informed person will not make such mistake.
Edit: about the cost
I said the "cost is", not that they are "spending it". There is lost opportunity, lost salary, lost investments, inflation...
It is not 18, more like 24 years.
Let's do some some math, take $600 rent over 18 years = $129,600. With 5% annual rent increase $202k. If you would reinvest that rental income with 5% yearly return $304k!!!
Stay at home mum for 5 years, at $60k = $300k. If you invest that into retirement account when baby would go to school, for 12 years at 5% yearly return it is $538k
This is a pretty mind blowing result. Moreover, this was before the really addictive apps were available, like TikTok, Reels and YouTube Shorts. So it probably has gotten even worse since then.
This study uses iPhone usage and birthrates at the county level.
The rural/urban distinction for counties has a strong correlation with wideband cellular data coverage, and that effect was even stronger in the early days of the iPhone when cellular data coverage was both weaker and more expensive.
Apple has better data. They know who has an iPhone, and they almost certainly know if they have kids. That info is probably available via ad brokers.
Here's an anecdote that today's kids are too young to have experienced, but their parents also weren't around for it. I was in middle school when the iPhone became popular. It was pretty sudden, so the social effect was obvious. Their parents probably bought them iPhones because they were addicted too, but it's different when you're in school. Since then have been hoping for a day when this gets undone.
Kids stopped socializing. School bus was suddenly very orderly, cause everyone was playing with their iPhones.
Sometimes I hear today that kids without phones get ostracized because social circles have moved online. That wasn't a thing yet. Facebook was popular but more something they messed with on home PCs. SMS existed but didn't do group chats well. Ironically there was more online social life before with AIM chat rooms, not supported well on iPhones.
In my experience it didn’t seem that impactful at the time. The social effect of early Facebook was pretty minor, not that much different to the MSN chats that came before it. I think it’s social media content discovery algorithms specifically that caused the sea change. If we exclude modern social media life really wouldn’t be that different to how it was before smart phones. Obviously I understand smart phones are what enabled this…
I don't know if it's "birth control" but it will definitely let you know that "Plan B" is not considered "pregnancy-termination" it is still legal in all States.
i'm confused what this is in reference to, but yes, levonorgestrel emergency contraceptives can't be called pregnancy termination by even the most extreme definition because it works by delaying ovulation, does not impact implantation and does nothing during/post ovulation/ and 'conception'
Wondering if it's just the iphone and the fact that we have it always in our pockets or the amount of "radiations" we are exposed it constantly at home at the office tbh
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[ 2023 ms ] story [ 1882 ms ] thread“The diffusion of the iPhone explains 33-52 percent of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15-44.”
It might be worthwhile using local lightning strikes as an instrument for 3G coverage. Others have done this, but not for fertility afaik. But the lightning strike data costs about $1000.
On the other hand, as William James wrote, one of definite characteristics of a religious experience is seriousness. "All is not vanity."
I guess the way this could work itself out is that if you prefer a hyper-reality, your genes do not pass on, and someone else's do, and within some number of generations we bounce back in response to evolutionary pressure.
I learned a fun fact in a recent interview of David Reich (by Dwarkesh):
> Every mutation that can occur does occur. There are eight billion people in the world. There are maybe 30 new mutations every generation, so that’s 240 billion new point mutations every generation. There are only three billion DNA bases in the genome, so every mutation that can occur does occur about 100 times every generation. We’re not mutation-limited anymore.
https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/david-reich-2
It's fascinating to me how personal choice never seems to enter into these discussions, even in relatively highly educated, first-world democracies. I actively chose to not have kids -- it was not an accidental by-product of iphones or any other proposed environmental factor.
The most absolutely infuriating thing about fertility rate discussions is the conclusion everyone draws of "obviously people aren't having enough sex".
I was sexually active for over 15 years before having exactly 1 child when I decided to.
The limiting factor in the number of children I have has at no point been the frequency of intercourse itself.
People prefer scrolling to sex enough that using the iPhone explains up to half of the U.S. birth decline since 2011.
IMO the problem isn't that we choose scrolling over sex, but that having a smartphone makes independence easier, which removes opportunities and motivation to meet people. People talk to each other mainly when they need to solve practical problems. Remove practical problems and you remove social interaction.
I remember clearly that when my ex fixed my bike I had a strong impulse of being attracted to him. But realistically, when my bike is broken, I'd rather take it to a bike shop than ask someone for help and then do favors in exchange.
Since people using other carriers also experienced 2008, it's not that.
State founded school is not going to tell you it costs $1200000 to raise baby, or you have 50% chance it will be taken away.
It will also push stats made in lab controlled conditions, and gloss over unreliability of such medications in real life (like if you would skip a pill for a few days).
Failure rate of birth control in normal life is around 10% per year (if you drink, forget to take pill at very exact time, use antibiotics). So there would be about chance 50% to get unwanted baby over years. Well informed person will not make such mistake.
Edit: about the cost
I said the "cost is", not that they are "spending it". There is lost opportunity, lost salary, lost investments, inflation...
It is not 18, more like 24 years.
Let's do some some math, take $600 rent over 18 years = $129,600. With 5% annual rent increase $202k. If you would reinvest that rental income with 5% yearly return $304k!!!
Stay at home mum for 5 years, at $60k = $300k. If you invest that into retirement account when baby would go to school, for 12 years at 5% yearly return it is $538k
What exactly are you planning to do with all that money anyway? Consume things?
Completely wrong. Not even plausible. You think every family is spending $67K per year, per baby, until they're 18? What?
Surely there's an enormous amount of money behind it, but where's the ROI ?
If you are in the category that would sit and watch porn in the public, then you already wouldn't need birth control.
Apple has better data. They know who has an iPhone, and they almost certainly know if they have kids. That info is probably available via ad brokers.
What was this social effect like, according to your memory?
Sometimes I hear today that kids without phones get ostracized because social circles have moved online. That wasn't a thing yet. Facebook was popular but more something they messed with on home PCs. SMS existed but didn't do group chats well. Ironically there was more online social life before with AIM chat rooms, not supported well on iPhones.
https://blog.est.im/2026/stdin-09
ppl are now having better options than raising a baby.
It gets me beffudled people actually think addiction to the virtual crack of social media is a better option.