The big question I have, why isn't Nvidia's stock falling quickly ? Nvidia's GPUs are the most in demand chip for AI. Seems Nvidia stock is also falling, but not as much. I would think it would fall almost as quickly as Intel.
I understand nothing but I want to join the conversation.
It seems to me that nvidia bubble is still to burst.
There is a trust me bro circle where Nvidia somehow sold GPU to itself so it can host someone else's models.
Maybe three years ago or a little more they announced they plan to move away from consumer end and focus on cloud. Back then it did not make much sense because everybody though "how the f Nvidia will manage clouds like AWS?" And their business model seems to me that it is a shared risk model where Nvidia don't "own" the cloud but pay for its GPU to have that market share.
I think it would make much sense if the thin layer those, how did the greedy musk said, neocloud/cloudfronts or whatever, were not so brittle due to the lack of market demand.
I have the impression they had a gold strategy for them but for some reason they rushed it too much and now they broke the market before they could profit from it.
I can imagine that if they didn't hoard their own resources to create scarcity artificiality, they would possibly have a stronger position in the market.
I can only think they did this because (A) they know the current government will bail them out and (B) someone was worried that China could hoard those GPUs first.
But as I said, I don't understand much of the topic, but it seems to me they are try to get as much money as soon as possible and that looks scam-ish to me. They all put investment rounds too close to each other, started creating concerning stories and "rogue" AIs at the same time. Maybe I'm being too paranoid, but so far those guys have been pulling some hat tricks and I think I know who will pay the bill
Edit:
Also I think the big ones artificially produced better numbers by doing massive layoff rounds. Depending on how those happen, it produces almost an immediate loss that can be smoothed, and then a peak on profit, and then we will see if their numbers keep up 2 or 3 quarter after that.
Maybe I have trust issues, but man, this does smell weird.
Apple Silicon launched in Mac, the first couple iterations worked/sold great. By the launch of M3 market realized it wasn't a fluke and that x86 was dead but still fundamental due to deployment at the time
Flash forward a couple more years to now it's all about efficient model training which sucks on generic CPUs so everyone is buying and designing other chips
Two big consumer pivots over 4-5 years and boom ...they're IBM and handed lifelines to shore up chip manufacturing in the US for strategic reasons but Intel essentially manufactures rotary phones right now. Maybe the fab biz will get modern designs right. We'll see
Modern Intel chips have no issues trading blows with Apple Silicon.
Their fabs are the weakest part of their business (I wonder why once AMD spun off GlobalFoundries so they could focus on the core product, they suddenly started doing well) Once they started making chips on TSMC's processes, wow, all of a sudden, theyre in the same league as Apple Silicon.
Actually, Intel's fab's are becoming their crown jewel. The whole "5 nodes in 4 years," where they tried to catch up with TSMC pretty much worked, which is why the stock originally rocketed up by 5x a few months ago. They aren't far behind TSMC now.
But, they still don't have many external customers for the fabs. Intels fab revenu is something like a tenth of TSMC's. Although, it'll probably grow year by year if they continue to match the capabilities of TSMC's chip processes.
NVidia had $96B in revenue and $60B of profit in Q2 2026, both of which doubled or more from Q2 2025.
Intel in Q3 2026 had $16.5B in revenue and $3.3B of profit, and $13.7B and $4.4B in Q3 2025.
NVidia is doing much better than Intel, people are selling bonds and junk bonds to buy billions of dollars of NVidia cards that NVidia is making 75% gross margins on. They’re making the kind of profits that would make a drug dealer blush.
I used Q3 earnings for Intel because Nvidia hasn’t reported their Q3 earnings yet and Intel’s Q2 earnings showed losses in both 2026 and 2025.
Intel GPUs are pretty worthless right now for inference, let alone training. Which isn't to say that there aren't people getting value out of them, but from a dollars/wattage/sanity to performance, there's no point to buying anything but Nvidia for most people and businesses. I don't want this to be the case, but that's just how it is currently.
> Intel GPUs are pretty worthless right now for inference, let alone training.
Why? Is it hardware limitations or deficient software stack?
In any case, as nvidia is ignoring the gaming market, AMD and Intel both have a vacuum to fill, but I don't see them doing it.
Intel, especially, should have rushed out gaming cards as soon as nvidia shortages were predictable (2023, at least).
The problem I have is not that an old GPU can't be used for gaming (it can), it's that I am forced to upgrade from a perfectly working 660ti that once played far cry 3, 4 and 5 (and every other game I threw at it) because my kernel doesn't have support anymore (older drivers don't work on a newer kernel).
A new GPU with the power of a decade-old GPU but all the latest software support would be great. Right now, if I want to see certain web-pages (WebGL), I have to buy a new GPU, but there isn't any low-priced GPUs anymore.
From what I read, Intel's recent chip production strategy was a miss, in that they focused on chips for laptops and not for the chips for AI data centers.
More specifically, they focused on making laptop chips like Panther Lake (Intel's latest and greatest) and they meant to make a lot of their money here, and the data center chips weren't focused on as much (I think these would be something like the Xeon 6, but not sure, but I read that they also could have boosted production of older data center chips). But, as it turns out, laptop sales are down because of the demand for DRAM is sky high from the AI data center build out, and not as many people are willing to buy a super expensive laptop. If they had forecasted more correctly, they would have focused more on making data center chips.
Also, their forward guidance for 2027 is lower than expected too, because it will take awhile to shift their production towards building more data center chips, which they are in the middle of doing.
But, you may want to check other sources because have only been somewhat loosely following what's happening with Intel.
Pre-AI-boom, Intel was a failing chipmaker. The situation was bad in all respects. Processor design fell behind AMD. Fabs fell behind TSMC/Samsung/etc. Culture was broken. Massive braindrain.
Stock was down three-fold between its peak around 2019 and its bottom in 2024/2025. Indeed, it was down three-fold in 2024/2025 from its 2000 dot-com peak.
Basically, imploding company, on its way for collapse.
With AI boom, there was more demand for ICs than production capacity. It almost didn't matter how bad your chips were -- someone would buy them, and at a healthy markup. This placed Intel in a very strong position to recover.
That recovered some value -- going above their previous high, but much less than 25 years of S&P500 growth. However, it's worth remembering the peak of $120 was less than double it's dot-com peak 25 years prior.
If AI boom doesn't materialize, Intel may, again, be on a path to death.
If it does materialize, but like the dot-com boom with a few winners and many losers, Intel will likely be one of the losers.
Ergo, falling value.
NVidia, in contrast, looks a lot more like the Amazon of the dot-com bust.
Huh, I'm used to "stock collapses" headlines being a 2% daily fluctuation. Actually down 50% over the past month. But then again, up 50% over the past year. Sure is great when stocks of companies that are foundationally important to the world economy are being traded like meme stocks.
Im still bullish on them at this price though. The terafab (already under construction) collab with Elon and 14A being the most powerful chip when they get it right has a lot of potential.
Intel bring the knowledge but doesn't operate and it's not the only partners in talk. They are not tied into the production at any step beyond the blueprints.
I'm still salty at them for fumbling Optane, Gaudi, Altera and the Xeon Phi. the company seems like it's full of talented engineers working under terrible leadership.
The list of shit that Intel was within the ballpark of the right tech or 5 years mistimed from having a huge hit is ridiculous. Fuckers don't have good management, but also must have terrible luck to keep _just_ missing the mark?
No. I worked on p1274 and p1276. They didnt take years to hit profitability because of leadership. There was a decade of brain drain and we just could not overcome the technical challenges. But that is heresy to ears of techies. The fact that something is just too hard for the talent at hand is just never offered up. Intel engineers, to put to bluntly: suck. (Me included. I was a senior principal.) There just isn’t enough talent there because they don’t pay enough. I took voluntary retirement and went to work for a smaller instrument maker. I’m way happier.
> I took voluntary retirement and went to work for a smaller instrument maker. I’m way happier.
I was not so lucky. I would have loved the voluntary separation package. They did get around to doing straight large layoffs one year. My manager got laid off, I was not so lucky. I wanted the layoff package. I told him I'd happily trade places with him. He tried, but was denied. I ended up leaving anyway. Now, like you, working for a small company and much much happier.
I hear you about the heresy, but are you sure you aren't being too hard on yourself? mismanagement can turn brilliant, passionate people into aimless zombies through demotivation and throwing you at problems that don't fit you.
also, my old boss thought Larabee was cool as hell when he got to play with it at MSR.
Maybe this is a layperson’s misunderstanding but after seeing Panther Lake hit the consumer scene I have a hard time believing Intel has a talent problem.
I’d even say what Intel is doing with Arc graphics is incredibly impressive. Coming out of nowhere to legitimately compete with a decent set of AMD/Nvidia consumer and workstation graphics cards is no small feat.
> The fact that something is just too hard for the talent at hand is just never offered up.
Those of us who've worked at less illustrious companies are all too familiar with that. It's definitely unpopular to mention, but it drives a lot of consulting sales.
Knowing them they'll have all this stuff online just as the AI bubble pops. Basically the same thing they did when they belatedly tried to get into mobile chips
Yup we live inside an ever growing noise factory thanks to modern news/social media attention harvesting dynamics. All sides are using it on autopilot.
The systems are optimized for pumping more and more bits out. Not to measure/reduce noise and increase signal.
Individually its easier to tune it out.
Intel was at 15 bucks for multiple years post its peaks.
The people doing most of the buying of most stocks are able to understand what is 'tik tok' and what is real.
The bulk of the buying is done by people who use modelling to derive the valuation, not vibes.
Because Intel is a household names, it's subject to vibes, but it's mostly math.
Underlying swings is usually some kind of new data point that, because there is so much growth involved, implies greater swings in valuation. So the impact of the news is amplified.
Because of the opaque nature of the inputs - and the leverage behind it.
Nobody knows what demand is going to be for AI in a few years, and that's causing this wild volatility.
It doesn't matter how well you understand the supply chain - that helps.
In many cases, it's literally trying to predict a herd: if the herd steers away from AI based on bad news about it not creating ROI, if the media sours, CEO's pullback, that could cause a slowdown in growth and therefore a crash.
Everything is highly leveraged.
An opaque input on Verizon forecasting model would not result in such a wild variation, they have more predictable operations.
Stocks are valued as the sum total of all the money they ever make.
So $1/year - the are worth infinity.
But due to 'time value of money' (aka some risk free discount rate you can put your money elsewhere at get the same return for no risk, like your bank account), then the infinite sum of those $1 / year is some value.
The problem is when profits grow is perpetually higher than the cost of borrowing - the net present value goes to infinity.
So the P/E ratio is 1/(cost of capital - growth).
So an investor with 8% cost of capital, a company growing at 3% per year woudl have a P/E of 20.
At 7% growth the value is p/e 100x ...
Any growth over the 'cost of capital' and the P/E goes to infinity because the infinite sum of all future cash flows does not converge.
Basically - when there are gigantic swings of things like more than 30% growth for any extended period, it's extremely hard to value.
Verizon is valued as it is because they have an operational lock on a system, they will never grow that much but their returns are predictable.
All this AI stuff is 'inherently wild' - and yes, there is a lot of hyperbole and speculation.
This this is different than Space X which is 'Musk Meme' stuff.
Sure, the Core 2 series ultimately, after a long gap, put them back on the rails at least, but Intel missed big iron and panicked.
Everything else since has been about desperately squeezing x86 into every niche, even when it probably shouldn’t be.
If IA-64 hadn’t failed, they would have had room to transition from x86, either focusing on lower power much sooner, or on slowly supplanting it with another lower power architecture.
The problem is doubling down on a single technology. They dropped the ball on GPU and storage, imagine that. It probably makes sense from the bean counter but they are not exploring new areas and diversifying. Now that people dont particularly care for x86, they are screwed. Good riddance.
The weird bit is they picked up the ball for graphics again and ran with it for a while, but fell down and broke their leg and sold the team to nvidia now. Right when their product line is probably placed the best - medium end good, priced GPUs for gaming, they are done with that segment.
There will be a company using Intel's fabs to make chips 5, 10 or 20 years from now. Because it is in the national interest of US to make sure that happens.
It is not in the national interest to make sure that the Intel common stock remains valued above 0. Plenty of companies that are of national interest were saved directly from bankruptcy, by nationalizing them in a way that wipes out the common stock.
In the worst case when the free market deems Intel worthless, the government will nationalize Intel at a cheap nominal price. Shareholders are wiped out anyways.
Failure here is getting restructured and people losing money in the stock market, which I guess is so detached from the actual companies and reality that it might as well be a polymarket bet (I mean overall stock market and not intel specifically).
"Failure" here can be something like the stock going to near 0 and then the govt hands Intel fabs to some other rich company that it likes, for example SpaceX at a criminally low rate
I think this is a geopolitical question beyond any cabinet or chair. In general, I think it would surprise people, but a Democratic cabinet would have to do many of the same geopolitical choices as Trump has done.
If you read Chokepoints by Fishman, it's for example clear that US had to do something soon, because all of the economical sanctional options were squeezed to the max, there was no offramp for that country.
Is it? Obama era actions against Iran were pulled back by the following administration and unfortunately the world will never know if Harris could have been goaded into bombing Iran the same way the current President was. Hillary Clinton, while working for the state department has stories about being told that jets were hot on the runway and the US needed to jump in as well.
A lot of retail investors lose the shirts off their backs holding Intel stock well before Intel every approaches anything close to "failure". Intel stock could drop 90% and the machines will still be running, because stock valuations which aren't tied to fundamentals on the way up are also not tied to fundamentals on the way down.
The lack of self awareness of HN posters thinking that these 'dumb finance people' can't understand how 'chips are made'.
Good gosh. Goldman probably has 50-100 people, inc. maybe 20 Engineers just on that alone, full time.
And yes, Intel can fail 100%. They can absolutely go into receivership and/or be broken up and bought for pennies by other entities.
It would be a strategic dismantling, obviously the government won't allow certain things to happen, but they could 100% allow investors to be wiped out.
Boeing is a bit different as there are no substitutes, but it could go into receivership. Some parts of Boeing will 'always exist' but the corporate entity can fail.
>> Intel, like Boeing cannot fail. If you believe they can, you better start searching for a bunker.
>> Advanced chip manufacturing is so incredibly hard. The finance bozos are clueless, again.
> The lack of self awareness of HN posters thinking that these 'dumb finance people' can't understand how 'chips are made'.
Finance people are even dumber. However that can just mean "they will happily welcome next 2k or 2008 crash". Dumb or evil - do not realy matter for most of
computer/phone users...
> Goldman probably has 50-100 people, inc. maybe 20 Engineers just on that alone, full time.
So what ? Goldman people are Goldman peoples and not some active government or good fairies - not their responsibility to save US, without a hefty profit that is.
And "finance peoples" are responsible for a lot of things... Example: it was I WW or II WW they caused ? SO plain DUMB ! Lehman bros was financial peoples too...
> And yes, Intel can fail 100%. They can absolutely go into receivership and/or be broken up and bought for pennies by other entities.
Possible by law. But it would mean that US (or US owning peoples) wants to dismantle their schame - IBM at the bottom, wintel in the middle and Apple for dumb peoples with creative skills.
Also Intel trying to do something with photonics what looks like future. But it's possible that that know-how will be extracted from company, some new entity will be created and shareholders will be left with Intel corpse.
So yes, Intel is like Boening and can't fail for some time. And no reason for Intel falling yet, they have better stuff that AMD which always mess something.
So dumb HN peoples are quite good at seeing reality, just not so machiavellic like financial peoples that plain choose to do dumb and evil things. Modulo CEOs beliving in llms...
Goldman “engineers” are English majors who did a six week visual studio training course in 2006. Can’t tell you the difference between RAM, CPU, and GPU.
Dunno what to tell you but the dude I’m thinking of is a department lead, and I remember helping him stuff his head with an MCSE 20 years back, and it was excruciating.
Of course Intel can fail. If revenue is down, they will have to stop investing in future nodes, making them even more uncompetitive in the future, reducing revenue even more, etc.
AMD is taking advantage of this by forcing 5-day RTO for almost all employees (including 90% of people that thought they were remote but were marked as "hybrid") in January w/ 3 months notice and an alleged 2-3% layoff in software according to Blind. The stock price caused employee compensation to skyrocket and now they want attrition.
It's pretty funny watching the stock collapse by 25% over the past week or so. Now is a great time to recruit people from AMD since they feel burned AND they lost the golden handcuffs leadership was relying on.
Tuesday is AMD earnings, and moves like this before earnings are always a good sign.
Not really. As far as I can tell the reason Intel routed seems to be because of an explosion in one of their fabs making Xeons which reduced production, and because no one buys new desktops and servers anymore because of the cost of RAM and storage. Given intel isn't big on AI chips, they are a casualty of the AI bubble.
Intel has lost its engineering culture and one day it will have to pay the ultimate price for letting it happen. I don't think that day is in 2026 but it's in the near future.
What no one is talking about so far is how Intel used to be a strong engineering culture but then turned into an incestious den of bean counting MBAs executing HBS management best practices to maximize shareholder value.
Intel just doesn't pay their engineers enough, so most don't care. Just like most of all the large companies - to management, engineers are line cooks flipping burgers at McDonalds who just happen to have master's degrees.
Intel's decline is organizational - it allowed bean counting and management rituals to acquire too much influence over engineering judgment. Horrible punishment lies ahead - we need to track people in management who will now start to jump ship and take their style to other unsuspecting companies.
As a result of all this nonsense, it lost significant engineering talent to competing chip companies: Jim Keller went to Tenstorrent, lead GPU architect David Blythe joined AMD, and Xeon architect Sailesh Kottapalli moved to Qualcomm after 28 years at Intel. These are substantial transfer of expertise, whatever each person’s individual reasons for leaving.
In April 2025, Lip-Bu Tan, lamented the company was "too slow, too complex and too set in our ways". He pointed to teams buried under at least eight organizational layers, managers measured by their headcount, and excessive meetings and administrative work.
The financial priorities shifted: Intel spent $14.2 billion on share buybacks in 2020, the same year it disclosed delays to its 7nm CPU roadmap.
Now they pay the price as they confront the reality of an organization overloaded with TPS reports. The death will be slow and gradual, bleeding out slowly but surely - halal style.
> Intel just doesn't pay their engineers enough, so most don't car
As someone who considered a job at Intel about 10 years ago (including having to submit to a somewhat humiliating panel-style interview) what made me instantly decide that I didn't want a job there was seeing how their office in my area (PNW) was a 1990s cube-farm.
I appreciate that Intel's workplace was (and still is?) egalitarian because _everyone_ has a cube, but today it's just so soul-destroying to lay eyes on.
So I agree they have a very unappealing culture, but it isn't as simple as paying people more (unless it's to pay for an interior designer and carpenters to overhaul their office...).
Intel is particular: they managed to keep appearing to investor as a CPU leader,
BUT:
- they are losing the server to ARM (also thanks to Apple because now many devs use ARM as well)
- AMD is strong on the PC, while Apple (15% market share) is ARM
- They failed to make a dent in the GPU market
So, Intel has got no more area of leadership. No more in manufacturing, no more in chip design. They are riding the inertia wave but will lose it eventually. That's what happens when you let financial people milk the cow. They sure got nice bonuses.
88 comments
[ 2.7 ms ] story [ 56.5 ms ] threadI wonder if something else is happening to Intel
Nvidia Stock:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/
Intel Stock:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/
It seems to me that nvidia bubble is still to burst. There is a trust me bro circle where Nvidia somehow sold GPU to itself so it can host someone else's models. Maybe three years ago or a little more they announced they plan to move away from consumer end and focus on cloud. Back then it did not make much sense because everybody though "how the f Nvidia will manage clouds like AWS?" And their business model seems to me that it is a shared risk model where Nvidia don't "own" the cloud but pay for its GPU to have that market share. I think it would make much sense if the thin layer those, how did the greedy musk said, neocloud/cloudfronts or whatever, were not so brittle due to the lack of market demand.
I have the impression they had a gold strategy for them but for some reason they rushed it too much and now they broke the market before they could profit from it.
I can imagine that if they didn't hoard their own resources to create scarcity artificiality, they would possibly have a stronger position in the market. I can only think they did this because (A) they know the current government will bail them out and (B) someone was worried that China could hoard those GPUs first.
But as I said, I don't understand much of the topic, but it seems to me they are try to get as much money as soon as possible and that looks scam-ish to me. They all put investment rounds too close to each other, started creating concerning stories and "rogue" AIs at the same time. Maybe I'm being too paranoid, but so far those guys have been pulling some hat tricks and I think I know who will pay the bill
Edit: Also I think the big ones artificially produced better numbers by doing massive layoff rounds. Depending on how those happen, it produces almost an immediate loss that can be smoothed, and then a peak on profit, and then we will see if their numbers keep up 2 or 3 quarter after that. Maybe I have trust issues, but man, this does smell weird.
Would it not make more sense to ask questions in this case?
Flash forward a couple more years to now it's all about efficient model training which sucks on generic CPUs so everyone is buying and designing other chips
Two big consumer pivots over 4-5 years and boom ...they're IBM and handed lifelines to shore up chip manufacturing in the US for strategic reasons but Intel essentially manufactures rotary phones right now. Maybe the fab biz will get modern designs right. We'll see
Their fabs are the weakest part of their business (I wonder why once AMD spun off GlobalFoundries so they could focus on the core product, they suddenly started doing well) Once they started making chips on TSMC's processes, wow, all of a sudden, theyre in the same league as Apple Silicon.
But, they still don't have many external customers for the fabs. Intels fab revenu is something like a tenth of TSMC's. Although, it'll probably grow year by year if they continue to match the capabilities of TSMC's chip processes.
Intel in Q3 2026 had $16.5B in revenue and $3.3B of profit, and $13.7B and $4.4B in Q3 2025.
NVidia is doing much better than Intel, people are selling bonds and junk bonds to buy billions of dollars of NVidia cards that NVidia is making 75% gross margins on. They’re making the kind of profits that would make a drug dealer blush.
I used Q3 earnings for Intel because Nvidia hasn’t reported their Q3 earnings yet and Intel’s Q2 earnings showed losses in both 2026 and 2025.
Why? Is it hardware limitations or deficient software stack?
In any case, as nvidia is ignoring the gaming market, AMD and Intel both have a vacuum to fill, but I don't see them doing it.
Intel, especially, should have rushed out gaming cards as soon as nvidia shortages were predictable (2023, at least).
The problem I have is not that an old GPU can't be used for gaming (it can), it's that I am forced to upgrade from a perfectly working 660ti that once played far cry 3, 4 and 5 (and every other game I threw at it) because my kernel doesn't have support anymore (older drivers don't work on a newer kernel).
A new GPU with the power of a decade-old GPU but all the latest software support would be great. Right now, if I want to see certain web-pages (WebGL), I have to buy a new GPU, but there isn't any low-priced GPUs anymore.
More specifically, they focused on making laptop chips like Panther Lake (Intel's latest and greatest) and they meant to make a lot of their money here, and the data center chips weren't focused on as much (I think these would be something like the Xeon 6, but not sure, but I read that they also could have boosted production of older data center chips). But, as it turns out, laptop sales are down because of the demand for DRAM is sky high from the AI data center build out, and not as many people are willing to buy a super expensive laptop. If they had forecasted more correctly, they would have focused more on making data center chips.
Also, their forward guidance for 2027 is lower than expected too, because it will take awhile to shift their production towards building more data center chips, which they are in the middle of doing.
But, you may want to check other sources because have only been somewhat loosely following what's happening with Intel.
Stock was down three-fold between its peak around 2019 and its bottom in 2024/2025. Indeed, it was down three-fold in 2024/2025 from its 2000 dot-com peak.
Basically, imploding company, on its way for collapse.
With AI boom, there was more demand for ICs than production capacity. It almost didn't matter how bad your chips were -- someone would buy them, and at a healthy markup. This placed Intel in a very strong position to recover.
That recovered some value -- going above their previous high, but much less than 25 years of S&P500 growth. However, it's worth remembering the peak of $120 was less than double it's dot-com peak 25 years prior.
If AI boom doesn't materialize, Intel may, again, be on a path to death.
If it does materialize, but like the dot-com boom with a few winners and many losers, Intel will likely be one of the losers.
Ergo, falling value.
NVidia, in contrast, looks a lot more like the Amazon of the dot-com bust.
Oh, it wasn't leadership?
> There just isn’t enough talent there because they don’t pay enough.
Ah, so it was leadership.
> Intel engineers, to put to bluntly: suck.
It hurts, but it is true.
> I took voluntary retirement and went to work for a smaller instrument maker. I’m way happier.
I was not so lucky. I would have loved the voluntary separation package. They did get around to doing straight large layoffs one year. My manager got laid off, I was not so lucky. I wanted the layoff package. I told him I'd happily trade places with him. He tried, but was denied. I ended up leaving anyway. Now, like you, working for a small company and much much happier.
Intel engineers absolutely do not suck.
also, my old boss thought Larabee was cool as hell when he got to play with it at MSR.
I’d even say what Intel is doing with Arc graphics is incredibly impressive. Coming out of nowhere to legitimately compete with a decent set of AMD/Nvidia consumer and workstation graphics cards is no small feat.
Those of us who've worked at less illustrious companies are all too familiar with that. It's definitely unpopular to mention, but it drives a lot of consulting sales.
Intel ARC is not only impressive just for the mere feat of “almost catching up” this quickly, but Intel absolutely can be an AI GPU supplier of note.
I don’t claim to fully understand the business especially on the enterprise side but I don’t think it’s the sort of company to count out.
The systems are optimized for pumping more and more bits out. Not to measure/reduce noise and increase signal.
Individually its easier to tune it out.
Intel was at 15 bucks for multiple years post its peaks.
The bulk of the buying is done by people who use modelling to derive the valuation, not vibes.
Because Intel is a household names, it's subject to vibes, but it's mostly math.
Underlying swings is usually some kind of new data point that, because there is so much growth involved, implies greater swings in valuation. So the impact of the news is amplified.
Nobody knows what demand is going to be for AI in a few years, and that's causing this wild volatility.
It doesn't matter how well you understand the supply chain - that helps.
In many cases, it's literally trying to predict a herd: if the herd steers away from AI based on bad news about it not creating ROI, if the media sours, CEO's pullback, that could cause a slowdown in growth and therefore a crash.
Everything is highly leveraged.
An opaque input on Verizon forecasting model would not result in such a wild variation, they have more predictable operations.
Stocks are valued as the sum total of all the money they ever make.
So $1/year - the are worth infinity.
But due to 'time value of money' (aka some risk free discount rate you can put your money elsewhere at get the same return for no risk, like your bank account), then the infinite sum of those $1 / year is some value.
The problem is when profits grow is perpetually higher than the cost of borrowing - the net present value goes to infinity.
So the P/E ratio is 1/(cost of capital - growth).
So an investor with 8% cost of capital, a company growing at 3% per year woudl have a P/E of 20.
At 7% growth the value is p/e 100x ...
Any growth over the 'cost of capital' and the P/E goes to infinity because the infinite sum of all future cash flows does not converge.
Basically - when there are gigantic swings of things like more than 30% growth for any extended period, it's extremely hard to value.
Verizon is valued as it is because they have an operational lock on a system, they will never grow that much but their returns are predictable.
All this AI stuff is 'inherently wild' - and yes, there is a lot of hyperbole and speculation.
This this is different than Space X which is 'Musk Meme' stuff.
Sure, the Core 2 series ultimately, after a long gap, put them back on the rails at least, but Intel missed big iron and panicked.
Everything else since has been about desperately squeezing x86 into every niche, even when it probably shouldn’t be.
If IA-64 hadn’t failed, they would have had room to transition from x86, either focusing on lower power much sooner, or on slowly supplanting it with another lower power architecture.
IA-64’s failure
Advanced chip manufacturing is so incredibly hard. The finance bozos are clueless, again.
It is not in the national interest to make sure that the Intel common stock remains valued above 0. Plenty of companies that are of national interest were saved directly from bankruptcy, by nationalizing them in a way that wipes out the common stock.
Depending on how this was done and for what quid pro quo, this could wind up being a liability for Intel. (It also trashes its image abroad.)
Failure here is getting restructured and people losing money in the stock market, which I guess is so detached from the actual companies and reality that it might as well be a polymarket bet (I mean overall stock market and not intel specifically).
Given Khan accomplished practically nothing in her time as FTC chair, other than learning how to manage a team, I'd say this is probably irrelevant.
If you read Chokepoints by Fishman, it's for example clear that US had to do something soon, because all of the economical sanctional options were squeezed to the max, there was no offramp for that country.
Good gosh. Goldman probably has 50-100 people, inc. maybe 20 Engineers just on that alone, full time.
And yes, Intel can fail 100%. They can absolutely go into receivership and/or be broken up and bought for pennies by other entities.
It would be a strategic dismantling, obviously the government won't allow certain things to happen, but they could 100% allow investors to be wiped out.
Boeing is a bit different as there are no substitutes, but it could go into receivership. Some parts of Boeing will 'always exist' but the corporate entity can fail.
>> Advanced chip manufacturing is so incredibly hard. The finance bozos are clueless, again.
> The lack of self awareness of HN posters thinking that these 'dumb finance people' can't understand how 'chips are made'.
Finance people are even dumber. However that can just mean "they will happily welcome next 2k or 2008 crash". Dumb or evil - do not realy matter for most of computer/phone users...
> Goldman probably has 50-100 people, inc. maybe 20 Engineers just on that alone, full time.
So what ? Goldman people are Goldman peoples and not some active government or good fairies - not their responsibility to save US, without a hefty profit that is.
And "finance peoples" are responsible for a lot of things... Example: it was I WW or II WW they caused ? SO plain DUMB ! Lehman bros was financial peoples too...
> And yes, Intel can fail 100%. They can absolutely go into receivership and/or be broken up and bought for pennies by other entities.
Possible by law. But it would mean that US (or US owning peoples) wants to dismantle their schame - IBM at the bottom, wintel in the middle and Apple for dumb peoples with creative skills.
Also Intel trying to do something with photonics what looks like future. But it's possible that that know-how will be extracted from company, some new entity will be created and shareholders will be left with Intel corpse.
So yes, Intel is like Boening and can't fail for some time. And no reason for Intel falling yet, they have better stuff that AMD which always mess something.
So dumb HN peoples are quite good at seeing reality, just not so machiavellic like financial peoples that plain choose to do dumb and evil things. Modulo CEOs beliving in llms...
Source: I know several of them.
He wasn’t stupid. He also wasn’t a technologist.
Of course they can. Same as the auto manufacturers. That doesn't mean they disappear. Just that shareholders get wiped out.
Been looking for one the last 20 years.
>The finance bozos are clueless, again.
You're much too generous. They are so far beyond merely clueless... these are the bumblefucks that will tip off the end of the world.
It's pretty funny watching the stock collapse by 25% over the past week or so. Now is a great time to recruit people from AMD since they feel burned AND they lost the golden handcuffs leadership was relying on.
Tuesday is AMD earnings, and moves like this before earnings are always a good sign.
Billions of $ in GPUs are flooding the market and hopefully DRAM will soon become cheap again and we can get on with our lives.
Their newest workstation chips (Xeon 600) are awesome. But limited supply.
I guess this is related to Israel, isn't it? Meaning a fab they had installed there. Or maybe I'm thinking of the wrong Intel property blowing up.
What no one is talking about so far is how Intel used to be a strong engineering culture but then turned into an incestious den of bean counting MBAs executing HBS management best practices to maximize shareholder value.
Intel just doesn't pay their engineers enough, so most don't care. Just like most of all the large companies - to management, engineers are line cooks flipping burgers at McDonalds who just happen to have master's degrees.
Intel's decline is organizational - it allowed bean counting and management rituals to acquire too much influence over engineering judgment. Horrible punishment lies ahead - we need to track people in management who will now start to jump ship and take their style to other unsuspecting companies.
As a result of all this nonsense, it lost significant engineering talent to competing chip companies: Jim Keller went to Tenstorrent, lead GPU architect David Blythe joined AMD, and Xeon architect Sailesh Kottapalli moved to Qualcomm after 28 years at Intel. These are substantial transfer of expertise, whatever each person’s individual reasons for leaving.
In April 2025, Lip-Bu Tan, lamented the company was "too slow, too complex and too set in our ways". He pointed to teams buried under at least eight organizational layers, managers measured by their headcount, and excessive meetings and administrative work.
The financial priorities shifted: Intel spent $14.2 billion on share buybacks in 2020, the same year it disclosed delays to its 7nm CPU roadmap.
Now they pay the price as they confront the reality of an organization overloaded with TPS reports. The death will be slow and gradual, bleeding out slowly but surely - halal style.
As someone who considered a job at Intel about 10 years ago (including having to submit to a somewhat humiliating panel-style interview) what made me instantly decide that I didn't want a job there was seeing how their office in my area (PNW) was a 1990s cube-farm.
I appreciate that Intel's workplace was (and still is?) egalitarian because _everyone_ has a cube, but today it's just so soul-destroying to lay eyes on.
So I agree they have a very unappealing culture, but it isn't as simple as paying people more (unless it's to pay for an interior designer and carpenters to overhaul their office...).
BUT:
- they are losing the server to ARM (also thanks to Apple because now many devs use ARM as well)
- AMD is strong on the PC, while Apple (15% market share) is ARM
- They failed to make a dent in the GPU market
So, Intel has got no more area of leadership. No more in manufacturing, no more in chip design. They are riding the inertia wave but will lose it eventually. That's what happens when you let financial people milk the cow. They sure got nice bonuses.
Farewell...