And, in particular, I also think that nuclear winter is another one of these over-hyped scenarios. If you do the napkin-math it doesn't really work out. Nuclear war will probably result in every major metropolitan area…
The article has some great examples of risks that were hyped out of proportion to their true severity. Should these things be considered? Yes. But only a little. If you halt programs completely for tail risks you'll…
It's worth pointing out that the worst possible layout for keyboards might actually be one of the best possible layouts for phones.
It's just that a name is a case-sensitive string. If you said 'france is having a heatwave', 'FrAnCE is having a heatwave', or 'FRANCE is having a heatwave', I would be confused.
Check out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThreeBallot It has some criticism, but IMO this is a very simple and effective method. And there are better ideas out there too. I think we can even build a mechanical machine…
Approximately half the math textbooks I study from basically do this already. It works very well, but IMO mostly because the questions are not easy. You actually have to stop and think for a few minutes before moving on.
This is interesting because I work with professional mathematicians and they are the exact opposite. They always start off with a semi-formalized idea and play with it a lot before trying to hone in on something formal.…
One way to shorten the time is to constantly increase hospital capacity, so that in each month lets you infect more people. Especially if plasma donations turn out to work to reduce severe cases. Another way is to…
It's a relatively natural consequence of the fact that doing work creates value. One of the things you can work towards is creating more workers (by creating more humans, or better efficiency, or robots). Because these…
Basically, why aren't we treating the null hypothesis as "neanderthals and modern humans eat exactly the same foods"? Rather than "neanderthals don't eat at all" which seems to be the case here.
This sounds pretty silly. There's bound to be a way to make online (or semi-online) learning agile too. Distance learning is basically a solved problem and has been done for hundreds of years. How about recorded…
GP's point wasn't about inflation but about growth. So for a rough estimate you should be looking at the rate of GDP growth rather than the rate of inflation. Since GDP per capita grew 30x since 1950, you should be…
Regulation of commerce is one of the powers we explicitly set out as belonging to the government. In the American system free trade is a reflection of some of our values but not some inherent unalienable right.
I think the idea is that even if all the current top emitters do take initiative, China and India's emissions are expected to grow quickly. The losses will win over the gains.
There is actually a pretty good study that shows that people are able to guess which studies will replicate and which will not: https://80000hours.org/psychology-replication-quiz/
In the US, mandatory deposit technically applies to any copyrighted work of any kind. We should fund LoC to enforce mandatory deposit on digitally published works as well. In a sense this is also a good demarcation…
I am looking for a service that will allow me to directly pay creators at the same price as an ad impression, paying per page view. So far ways to pay creators are almost always based on dollar increments, but I would…
Only in some dialects.
Not necessarily, because it can be debated whether posting something on the internet really counts as publishing, and whether most internet content is original enough to be eligible for protection. A good example of…
We should require websites to freeze and archive public content instead of deleting it. We already require media published in nearly every other format to be submitted to Library of Congress, and we should extend those…
The counterargument given by one of the proponents of MOND (a non-dark-matter counterargument) is that the bullet cluster can be explained by a combination of slight modification of GR, and additionally by the presence…
The true reason is that intel didn't support coexistence of Virtual 8086 mode with 64-bit mode. So adding 16 bit app support would require loads of work to get it working as part of a 64 bit OS. Regular protected mode…
But not all instances of global warming caused mass extinction events. I think that there is a correlation here rather than a causation. In fact, looking at historical charts the earth's temperature undergoes a…
> I suspect reducing emissions is cheaper in the long run than dealing with the effects. I'm not entirely sure. People seem to be convinced that climate change will destroy all civilization, but in the distant past the…
How do you know? There's no experiment I can think of to confirm this. IMO, the correct 'null hypothesis' wrt mammals is that they think and feel like humans do, except where we've managed to prove otherwise.
And, in particular, I also think that nuclear winter is another one of these over-hyped scenarios. If you do the napkin-math it doesn't really work out. Nuclear war will probably result in every major metropolitan area…
The article has some great examples of risks that were hyped out of proportion to their true severity. Should these things be considered? Yes. But only a little. If you halt programs completely for tail risks you'll…
It's worth pointing out that the worst possible layout for keyboards might actually be one of the best possible layouts for phones.
It's just that a name is a case-sensitive string. If you said 'france is having a heatwave', 'FrAnCE is having a heatwave', or 'FRANCE is having a heatwave', I would be confused.
Check out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThreeBallot It has some criticism, but IMO this is a very simple and effective method. And there are better ideas out there too. I think we can even build a mechanical machine…
Approximately half the math textbooks I study from basically do this already. It works very well, but IMO mostly because the questions are not easy. You actually have to stop and think for a few minutes before moving on.
This is interesting because I work with professional mathematicians and they are the exact opposite. They always start off with a semi-formalized idea and play with it a lot before trying to hone in on something formal.…
One way to shorten the time is to constantly increase hospital capacity, so that in each month lets you infect more people. Especially if plasma donations turn out to work to reduce severe cases. Another way is to…
It's a relatively natural consequence of the fact that doing work creates value. One of the things you can work towards is creating more workers (by creating more humans, or better efficiency, or robots). Because these…
Basically, why aren't we treating the null hypothesis as "neanderthals and modern humans eat exactly the same foods"? Rather than "neanderthals don't eat at all" which seems to be the case here.
This sounds pretty silly. There's bound to be a way to make online (or semi-online) learning agile too. Distance learning is basically a solved problem and has been done for hundreds of years. How about recorded…
GP's point wasn't about inflation but about growth. So for a rough estimate you should be looking at the rate of GDP growth rather than the rate of inflation. Since GDP per capita grew 30x since 1950, you should be…
Regulation of commerce is one of the powers we explicitly set out as belonging to the government. In the American system free trade is a reflection of some of our values but not some inherent unalienable right.
I think the idea is that even if all the current top emitters do take initiative, China and India's emissions are expected to grow quickly. The losses will win over the gains.
There is actually a pretty good study that shows that people are able to guess which studies will replicate and which will not: https://80000hours.org/psychology-replication-quiz/
In the US, mandatory deposit technically applies to any copyrighted work of any kind. We should fund LoC to enforce mandatory deposit on digitally published works as well. In a sense this is also a good demarcation…
I am looking for a service that will allow me to directly pay creators at the same price as an ad impression, paying per page view. So far ways to pay creators are almost always based on dollar increments, but I would…
Only in some dialects.
Not necessarily, because it can be debated whether posting something on the internet really counts as publishing, and whether most internet content is original enough to be eligible for protection. A good example of…
We should require websites to freeze and archive public content instead of deleting it. We already require media published in nearly every other format to be submitted to Library of Congress, and we should extend those…
The counterargument given by one of the proponents of MOND (a non-dark-matter counterargument) is that the bullet cluster can be explained by a combination of slight modification of GR, and additionally by the presence…
The true reason is that intel didn't support coexistence of Virtual 8086 mode with 64-bit mode. So adding 16 bit app support would require loads of work to get it working as part of a 64 bit OS. Regular protected mode…
But not all instances of global warming caused mass extinction events. I think that there is a correlation here rather than a causation. In fact, looking at historical charts the earth's temperature undergoes a…
> I suspect reducing emissions is cheaper in the long run than dealing with the effects. I'm not entirely sure. People seem to be convinced that climate change will destroy all civilization, but in the distant past the…
How do you know? There's no experiment I can think of to confirm this. IMO, the correct 'null hypothesis' wrt mammals is that they think and feel like humans do, except where we've managed to prove otherwise.