Writing books is not really a good idea (ellegriffin.substack.com)

Although I think you meant to write 27 million (268 * 100k)

edit - ignore, I missed that it was 2.6m unique in the article

Peer at those books closely and you can see some odd detours that were shut down. Also some padding to get more segment-by-segment payments. But it's workable

But even for larger book series this happens. Like Wheel of Time, one can in an earlier book read about Lan sitting and sharpening his sword. Some books later it's mentioned that his sword never loses its edge. So in later versions of the first book it has been changed to him sharpening his knife instead.

But my guess is those things would happen on a larger scale when not having the opportunity to go back and edit previous chapters.

- write it at once and release in chunks.

- release it as you write.

- And the most interesting (in my opinion), release it as you write and then if it’s popular, do a full round of edits based on crowd feedback and self publish the ‘definitive, crowd edited edition’.

It can produce some strange incentives: For one thing, they start getting reader feedback after every single chapter, if they want it. Some writers develop really fast-paced styles.

For another, they often start releasing chapters as they are written - meaning they can't have an editor who reads chapter 20 advise them to go fix an inconsistency back in chapter 4.

Also, some writers realise the moment they bring the story to a conclusion, they stop getting paid. That's OK for comedy/slice-of-life/X-of-the-week content - The Simpsons has no need for character growth or overarching plot lines - but works poorly for other genres: What good is a romance where the characters can never kiss, or an epic fantasy where the one ring can never be thrown into mount doom?

Of course, some of these incentives are hardly new: Other media have been subject to them for years.

The rate of change is roughly proportional to the amount present. The biggest gets even bigger, faster.

I’m on 20+ books read in my good reads challenge for 2021, all paid for, many through audible but some directly from the black library (yes it’s very stupid warhammer fiction), but all of them have been audiobooks and the ones I didn’t get through audible cost me 33 euros a piece. So you’re not the only one buying books, there is at least two of us!

I mean, if everyone read "exactly what was needed" then that would significantly change the distribution since the current is based on "what marketers make me think I need."

Therefore, this article could be viewed as positive improvement of efficiency in the book buying market. Ie more people buying "the book they need" vs "want because of flashy marketing" based on increased access to search and reviews.

That being said it points to not that writing books is not economical viable but that have someone else publish it is not economically viable!

My bias, I am self publishing my first book at the end of this year in flutter app dev with using paid article writing using Medium.com to pay the costs of setting up the LLC, and other costs such as purchasing a brand new mac laptop.

Note, since most people in tech do not buy 2nd screens just to read and use a book it's some skewed towards the 45k number in those niches, my own opinion. Most publisher advertising gets one to the 15k number which is why I am using a social-media and Medium article combined route to advertising the book.

Edit: why? Because you believe in the leverage algorithms can provide https://www.amazon.com/Algorithms-Live-Computer-Science-Deci...

There are probably a lot of single people here that would benefit from that book as well (the stopping problem)

We all "know" the algos. But reading/hearing how they can be applied and what effect they can have on your life can be enlightening.

I agree. Considering word count, I read more now than ever but I read a fraction of the books I used to read 15-20 years ago.

Pre-covid I'd mainly use the new non-fiction shelf. Since our libraries arent open in person yet, I mainly get book ideas from book reviews like in HN or NYT.

Having said that, I'm amazed that so many of those titles are actually bought, they do appear to be at least somewhat popular. Any thrift store has piles of Presidential biographies and outraged-about-a-President books, they're over by the microwave cookbooks.

My assumption is almost certainly yes--provided you made it through the big publisher gatekeepers. (And were able to parlay that into shelf space at the store.)

- People probably read more books. There were fewer other demands on attention, whether YouTube, social media, online content generally, etc. I certainly read books far less than I used to.

- There was less competition once you got through the aforementioned gatekeepers.

- There was less discounting. Books used to be sold at list price. And, subsequently, maybe at a small discount in some places.

- Publishers often provided support with marketing activities.

He asked me whether he had mentioned, in any of the papers of the Rambler, the description in Virgil of the entrance into Hell, with an application to the press; 'for,' said he, 'I do not much remember them'. I told him, 'No.' Upon which he repeated it:

  Vestibulum ante ipsum, primisque in faucibus orci,
  Luctus et ultrices posuere cubilia Curae;
  Pallentesque habitant Morbi, tristisque Senectus,
  Et Metus, et malesuada Fames, et turpis Egestas,
  Terribiles visu formae; Lethumque, Laborque.
  [Footnote: Just in the gate, and in the jaws of hell,
  Revengeful cares, and sullen sorrows dwell;
  And pale diseases, and repining age;
  Want, fear, and famine's unresisted rage;
  Here toils and death, and death's half-brother, sleep,
  Forms terrible to view, their sentry keep. DRYDEN.]

(entry of Thursday, 14th October)

Agreed. Most writers do it because they love writing, not because they expect $100k/year. The money comes after the success. I wish her luck

Here's some other things he said on making a living as a writer: https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/vonnegut-writing-i...

Note that he got paid $750 for his first short story in 1949! I don't know how many places are paying first time authors that much today, and then you remember to calculate inflation.

I suspect there is now a middle ground that didn't exist before: In the 1970s you were either selling >10,000 copies, or you weren't a published author. 'Self-publishing' had a reputation as a scam to extract money from naive would-be authors. (I'm not sure what the academic book market was like at the time)

It's only with the rise of ebooks and print-on-demand that niche, low-selling authors have become a thing.

I often suspect we haven't noticed the inflationary effects on this as a "high" salary as much as we otherwise would because of the psychological effect of the change from five to six figures. Yeah, the median salary is low, but that's been well-covered elsewhere about how it hasn't risen in line with costs or upper-percentile income - so think of this as just another example of "here's a field where you can't make a comfortable income anymore."

One of the dominant subjective experiences of living today is the sensation that any possible amazing kind of life is right there and it is only up to us to reach out to pluck it. You go on Instagram and see people living blissful lives of travel in gorgeous locales while talking about how affordable it is. That random dude who wrote a series of posts on some story-telling Reddit ends up getting it optioned by Hollywood and is now a major screenwriter. The sea shanty Tik-Tok'er is a major label recording artist.

Our culture's positive values of egalitarianism and opportunity say that whatever you want your life to be can be, if only you work hard enough to get it.

The dark side of this is that many of us won't. And, in particular, in many areas, the total number of brass rings is relatively fixed and we can't all get them. A hundred years ago, most people didn't even think of becoming an author. It was a rarefied activity done by people who went to college and moved to New York City. For more, authors felt like an Other. It's not that their personal dreams of authorship were crushed by the lack of opportunity, it's like they never thought to dream it in the first place, any more than people dream of being howler monkeys or velour sofas.

But today, media is more than happy to show us all possible dreams. Our social media aggregators filter out all of the lives you're likely to lead and show you only the best ones.

So I think today many many more people consider and try to become authors than ever before. But the total amount of time spent reading isn't growing enough to accommodate that. While some will find success (for however they choose to define that), the end result is probably a much greater number of dreams thwarted than attained.

I love this TED talk by Alain de Botton on success: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtSE4rglxbY

He says:

"It is probably as unlikely nowadays that you would become as rich and famous as Bill Gates as it was unlikely in the 17th century that you would exceed to the ranks of the French aristocracy. But the point is it doesn't feel that way. It's made to feel by the media and other outlets that if you've got energy, a few bright ideas about technology, a garage, you too could start a major thing."

This paints a picture of media forms along some continuum, which describes what you're looking for.

[1] Media Literacy, W. James Potter

These are the authors that basically keep the lights on for the publisher. Overall though, profitable publishing is a business of breakout hits, the authors that sell 50,000+ copies and hit the best seller lists. Failed first-time authors and mid-list authors may mostly cancel each other out on profit, and it's those few hits that push publishers into the black.

  $1000 * 12 < $100,000

I don't know if this is true, but I do struggle with finding recent interesting books.

The choice is often "Do I take a chance with this thing published last year? Or do I just pick up one of the 'classics' that I haven't read yet?"

I usually end up going with the latter simply because I don't want to spend many hours reading something that ends up being "meh" and I assume that going with something considered a "classic" is safer. Though they do occasionally end up disappointing :)

That said, I tend to pick my books from the top lists. But I'm not a frequent reader.

Further, every modern author is competing with every author who ever lived. I could read the science fiction you wrote last year or I could read Asimov, Herbert, Card, etc. and they're often cheaper and more socially relevant.

(The exception is when I like a classic work of literature enough to want to buy a hardback copy that will last the decades. But that almost always means buying on the used market, because older hardbacks had quality sewn bindings, while hardbacks today are likely to have flimsy glued bindings. So, thanks to publishers skimping on quality, the author gets no remuneration even when a reader of the ebook decides to purchase the physical artifact.)

Not just that but also licensing.

I live in Europe and it happens a LOT that I can't get a book I want here. Either it's not yet released because it's released in phases. I read English only, however publishers tend to wait to release the English version until the local translation is out, so they don't lose potential sales of the translated version.

Also, some books are simply not sold here for some reason. It happens so often that I go through the Kindle app and then end up with the "This item is not available in your region" message.

At that point I go the easy way. I could get a US prepaid card and use a VPN or whatever but I'm not going to go out of my way to throw money at them. If they don't want to take my money, then they won't get it. I know I'm hurting the authors more than the publishers but I'm just not going to wait for it to become available here.

Word is that people on average don't read more or less than in the past. If that's true I wonder what's responsible for disparity. Are there more authors than before?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Dickens

> His novels, most of them published in monthly or weekly instalments, pioneered the serial publication of narrative fiction, which became the dominant Victorian mode for novel publication.[4][5] Cliffhanger endings in his serial publications kept readers in suspense.[6] The instalment format allowed Dickens to evaluate his audience's reaction, and he often modified his plot and character development based on such feedback.[5] For example, when his wife's chiropodist expressed distress at the way Miss Mowcher in David Copperfield seemed to reflect her disabilities, Dickens improved the character with positive features.[7] His plots were carefully constructed and he often wove elements from topical events into his narratives.[8] Masses of the illiterate poor would individually pay a halfpenny to have each new monthly episode read to them, opening up and inspiring a new class of readers.

[0] https://www.patreon.com/pirateaba

[1] https://www.patreon.com/Zogarth

The series is fantastic and the latest book was great, but £8 for something that I finished in less than an hour felt a bit steep. Especially for an ebook with literally 0 marginal cost.

[1] https://www.amazon.co.uk/Martha-Wells/e/B000APZA1O?ref=sr_nt...

Not just from the author's side. From a reader's perspective this would also not work. I don't want to start reading a book a chapter at a time. I don't even like reading books that are part of an unfinished series.

For me, as someone who reads quite a lot of books, there is nothing more satisfying than finding a new series that you are interested in and discovering the entire series is already finished. You can then just binge through the whole thing.

The worst is when a series is 5-6 books in, you binge through them in a couple of days and when the next part is released you can't be bothered because you have forgotten what it was about.

I wish authors would take the Netflix approach and just finish the entire series before releasing it.

- I've paid $50 for an e-book with content that I thought was really valuable (and it was worth every penny).

- In the 2020s the book could be accompanied by supporting material (webcasts etc) which would increase the perceived value.

- Some people would be prepared to pay more for early access and to support an author they really like.

I think that part of it is a change in focus of the book's content: rather than being accessible to as wide a range of readers as possible make it really valuable to a subset.

Frankly too many (non fiction) books are essays spun out to book length. A series of chapters with more dense content would be, in my view, be much more valuable (counting the cost of my time).

And of course as others have noted that many great books have been published as serials (albeit in magazines and newspapers).

Even today, comic books are effectively serialized narrative stories that are pretty reliably published on schedule and have writers who have to keep up for months at a time.

> Authors tend to have phases of inspiration, and lulls in between.

Different writers have different approaches to work. Some writers work in highly productive sprints with long fallow periods, and you're right this model probably wouldn't work well for them. But some novelists do work steadily (Stephen King I believe still tries to write for a couple hours every single day and only takes relatively short breaks between novels), and the fact that this model used to work for a number of books that are now considered classics seems to indicate it can still work in at least some cases.

I'd actually be more worried about the consumer side - the death of magazines makes this model tougher. A given author can reliably produce a novel over the course of a year or two, perhaps, but probably not indefinitely (comic books solve this problem by having writing teams do arcs and then swap out the writer). Magazines used to bundle multiple authors, so subscribers weren't affected by the break period of a single author. In a world where people subscribe to individual authors on Substack and there's no bundling of many authors writing, yeah, it's a tougher sell.

That being said, is there a model for a group of authors/publishers that is $8-9/month for a growing large selection novels (a la Netflix catalog)? If there is, it probably won't 'solve' any of the issues the article and others are bringing up here.

It seems sort of overly complicated to me in that Amazon will sell "tokens" to readers in batches with discounts for volume. The tokens can then be spent on episodes on Vella at the rate of 1 token per 100 words in the episode.

Apparently this is a thing they're copying from elsewhere, and it's supposedly huge in China.

https://kdp.amazon.com/en_US/help/topic/GR2L4AHPMQ44HNQ7

Getting inspired is a part of a job. Here's an example:

"Someone once asked Mr. Faulkner if he wrote by inspiration or habit and he said he wrote by inspiration, but luckily inspiration arrived at 9 every morning."