Excellently put. IMO the worst/scariest thing about AI is what it has done to the methods and work habits of some of the people who I've always looked up to as good software engineers. They now earnestly say things like "We don't have to look at code, understand it, or review it anymore. AI does all that." and "We don't have to test our software because if a bug is found in prod, you just tell the AI to fix it and deploy it instantly." Decades of software best practices thrown out the window in a year because of this psychosis!
> It's dramatically reduced the value of code, which has derailed a lot of careers who have built their entire adult life around the idea that code would remain valuable
I just don't relate to this sentiment. I wasn’t the fastest typer or the quickest at designing a solution pre-AI, but I was able to learn, build, and maintain systems. My value wasn’t in how fast or how much code I could write, it was in my ability to understand what the hell is going on and do something with that knowledge.
That’s still the case now, even though Kent from Accounting could theoretically one shot some of the software I build. He wouldn’t know what to do with the software, and he wouldn’t want it because now it’s his problem.
The tech industry oversees invisible Rube Goldberg’s machines of flowing electrons. Most people don’t want to learn or deal with its issues. And since AI is yet another complication piled on top of the machine, I feel confident that my career will still have value.
Can’t help that many people who are good at leveraging AI to build things sit around one upping each other on twitter all day instead of going out there and building cool stuff for less technical people.
Isn’t this just selection bias - you don’t see the people who are out making AI deliver boring value for people unless you use their products right?
I.e. Ramp does a pretty good job of using AI to make expense management easier/ CloudFlare makes it a lot easier to configure stuff properly on CloudFlare but is just like boringly useful.
If you are a company and can't figure out how to improve your bottom line through increased per person productvity, sales, product development, even just responses to customers etc, then that seems kind of like a "you" problem and not problem of the AI models...
If you are an AI company with hundreds of billions at your fingertip, and looking for $2 trillion valuation, and can't figure out how to let your customers execute _on the exact thing you are selling them and basing your valuation on_, sounds like a "you" problem too right?
I don't think that one has held up very well. A cynic might opine that they've realized how easy it is to grab headlines and attention by putting out research that feeds people who are hungry for negative stories about AI.
I don’t think I’d judge someone offering a prediction the same way I’d judge an observation of what’s already happened. It’s implied that guesses about the future are uncertain in a way that statistics about the present are not.
You’re implying that Apollo is biased, but the thing you’re quoting is a very brief report on publicly available research. This is the entirety of the article:
“The US Census Bureau conducts a biweekly survey of 1.2 million firms, and one question is whether a business has used AI tools such as machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents or voice recognition to help produce goods or services in the past two weeks. Recent data by firm size shows that AI adoption has been declining among companies with more than 250 employees, see chart below.”
Two questions:
1) What does that chart show today? (Genuine question. I’’ curious and don’t know where to find it.)
2) Regardless of what it shows now, why do you think Apollo reporting on it is noteworthy?
I'm implying they may be biased in what they chose to report on and how they frame it, yes. Deciding which figures to turn into a chart is an editorial decision.
For being one of the biggest AI boosters on HN, you'd really think you could make a stronger case than "Apollo is bad because they observed and reported on a fact". It wasn't a prediction, so there's nothing to "hold up very well".
Misunderstanding what actually qualifies as a "prediction" seems to be a recurring problem among AI commentators.
I've seen dozens of posts/top comments in the last few years dunking on "AI skeptics" for statements that didn't even vaguely resemble an actual prediction.
Like the front page post from Karpathy which got 600+ upvotes by throwing an AI model at old Hacker News comments without any human vetting to score "predictions". And upon further inspection included a bunch of unambiguously factual statements of the present or conditional if-then logic about the future which when glossed over for convenience become "failed" predictions.
Profit margins and revenue per worker of the s&p500 ex 7-mag are publicly disclosed figures that can be easily contrasted. A 30 second neutral prompt yields that op claims are "substantially justified" with footnotes as usual.
> A cynic might opine that they've realized how easy it is to grab headlines and attention by putting out research that feeds people who are hungry for negative stories about AI.
This is kind of gross. Make the claim or not, don't do this pseudo-sealioning thing. Moreover, engage with the actual content (or you could just not engage at all!), not this shallowest possible dismissal.
A cynic might opine that an AI shill is not a great source of unbiased review of an article. The article is about a biweekly survey of companies and the trend was clearly dropping. This isn't about token use by tokenmaxxers increasing. And it isn't about the opinions of the folks you hang out with when you're flown to conferences to gush about AI. It's a survey of businesses. And aside from programming and math, AI sucks. Even in programming and math it's a tool with a lot of downsides.
Does for us (data science, specialty chemistry, finding/optimizing formulas). We can get from idea to prototype in a day compared to 1-2 weeks. All that boilerplate to process data took a long time to code by hand, especially for the data science/math guys who are not programmers. Now we can actually try all ideas instead of guessing the most promising and only try that.
The question is: how does any of that translate into more revenue? If you try more ideas and they mostly go nowhere that's not necessarily helpful to the bottom line.
Tons of unstructured data that needs to be cleaned up in so many different ways that are hard to predict. Knowledge distributed in the heads of greybeards, handwritten papers und excel, sharepoint and dozens other locations like ancient proprietary software. Which you have to repeatedly ask for and discover more piece by piece. Then clean up, discover issues, make the customer gather more data/correct it, etc.
> handwritten papers und excel, sharepoint and dozens other locations like ancient proprietary software
This area is one which AI has shown to be pretty good (as long as some error rate is acceptable). Character recognition, voice transcribing, converting documents from one standard to an other. I can see an argument that if people spent most time doing those things, AI will speed it up (with a bit of added errors).
I am reminded however that in translations and AI generated subtitles, there is still a lot to be desired compared to the human touch. Handwritten papers in a different language, using local short hand and assumptions, may result in some odd and error prone AI transcription.
Probably a controversial take - but in the pursuit of elegance. 'Uhh, so I need to hook this connector up to that receiver using this adapter and then uh, I pass it to the connector manager which sends it to the scheduler that... @#%! FML.' And then it's all so polymorphicized that going through the debugger you spend an eternity just trying to figure out what the types even mean and why/where they came from.
When you look at old-school code that just hacked things together, it was ugly, but also very easy to in turn further hack. There was no elegance or grand base types with 80 levels of inheritance to enable clean extension at every possible juncture of types. And no spending forever to find out the exact function you want to be able to override, only to discover that it's outside your modifiable codebase and wasn't marked virtual. Everything just worked.
Well, that's a funny thing. The "well engineered" code can actually be harder to work on. And maintainability is one aspect of "well engineered".
What I've seen (at least at one place I worked) is that the code may be very well engineered for further modification - but only by people who have worked quite a bit on that code. For someone coming from outside, it's almost impossible. It takes forever to find your way around, and figure out where the magic place is that you need to modify in order to work within the existing design.
Well, you say, that's what the design documents are for! But they didn't have enough detail. They described the major objects, but not all the ancillary helper objects. They didn't describe the flow of data through the system in enough detail to know what to modify. The knowledge was there, in peoples' heads, but it was hard to get those peoples' time.
So, yeah. "Well engineered", but not engineered for maintenance by people who are not those already in the group.
And what revenue and/or profit increases can you cite publicly as a result of the use of AI in this work?
I don’t think anyone is disputing that it makes many kinds of work easier and/or faster, just the degree of those improvements and how much of those improvements actually translate to dollars earned or saved.
Seeing hard data on that would help settle the issue.
> And what revenue and/or profit increases can you cite publicly as a result of the use of AI in this work?
Nobody even tries to measure this. Their CEOs and board members have AI shares, and potential investors need to see your AI story to justify your valuation. It's a prison of lies.
Unfortunately not everything will cleanly show up in PnL, which is a function of the entire company’s processes.
If developers are shipping more code (and most of the enablement is in software right now) does that show up in top line? Maybe… if sales and marketing are also selling more, and product people are building the right thing, and…
Can’t share more than that publicly. Just that the time saved on this one thing alone is saving us way more money than the subscription per employee that is needed (~100$). I don’t doubt there are companies where this is not the case. Would like to share more details, but the rough math of doing something in a day vs several days + engineering salary have to do here.
Unfortunately we're at the mercy of Goodhart's law and in an interesting twist, AI is really good with things that have an immediate feedback mechanism, eg writing code that doesn't compile or pass tests, but you're trying to grade AI o something that doesn't have an immediate feedback mechanism. AI can slop out a PowerPoint deck in a fraction of the time it used to take a human by hand. The competent human then goes in and unslopifies it, but overall, still time is saved. Unfortunately, that employee is salaried and not hourly, so they can't click out early and even if they were, what's their incentive to clock out early if it means less money in their pocket? Or they can use the hours now free on something else. My gut, as an Internet random who's used AI is that it helps. I don't know how to measure it, just like how do you measure how much better it is to live in a clean house vs a cluttered one? How would you put that in a metric? If you can't put that into a metric, why bother cleaning your house? We clean it anyway, because of a certain je ne sais quoi.
CASE tools. OOP. OOAD.
UML. AGILE. HOLY GRAIL. TDD. WEB 2. CRYPTO. BOOTCAMPS. FP. CANCER CURE. WEB 3. DATA SCIENCE. WORLD PEACE. MACHINE LEARNING. AI. AGI. MOONSHOTS. SINGULARITY.
mwahahahaha. drool on. believe on. hipster on. koolaid on. hype on.
I know a very specific use case in management consulting where hours spent by a consultant for a repetitive task (mainly report writing and source data gathering) went from on average of 40 hours to 12 hours per project. It costs the firm roughly ~$150 in token spend to save those 28 hours. They used to be roughly $200/hr (so $5k~$6k).
You haven’t shared enough data to tell whether there was a financial payoff for the firm or not. The consultant is a fixed cost to the firm, so saving consultant time doesn’t necessarily translate directly to higher margins nor revenue per worker.
Are the consultants delivering more billable hours per person now?
All sorts of reasons why the answer to that may be: no.
Internally the hard data is there. On a budget of $2000 of API-priced tokens (Claude models + GPT models) we were able to migrate ~6 teams of infrastructure in 1 month, done by 1-2 people. Without AI it would've taken 10x longer wall clock time to do, and involved far more folks, and probably would have been much bumpier of a rollout. The big lift was mostly using AI for massive information gathering, digging through huge volumes of discussions, documents, commits, PRs, alerts, dashboards, etc pretty exhaustively for the past 5 years of history, to discover all the "chestertons fences" far more thoroughly than even the folks on the team who built it were able to. Then the 1-2 folks could go to each team with a super comprehensive "here is every need, every interaction, every discussion, everything you've ever done w/r/t this infeastructure, and here's how we're going to handle each of those with the migration we're going to do. We will do all the work for you, is that acceptable, yes or no?"
The teams throughly reviewed and brought up 2 overlooked cases, but mostly we all reminisced about things forgotten that AI discovery had turned up which would have been totally overlooked otherwise. Forgotten discussions, designs, outages, odd decisions, weird edge cases prepared for but never encountered, etc. Then they were migrated, it went smoothly, all to save a low seven-figures per year dollar amount.
The fundamental approach of exhaustively researching to that degree would never have been possible without AI. It's just not feasible to analyze 5 years of even one of those discussions sources (e.g. slack) to figure that out, let alone ALL of them. Now a team of ~1.5 engineers has tackled all that by leveraging AI.
The hard data is piling up in companies, but it'll take a while to get out there.
(Numbers and details lightly greeked in the above account)
I actually feel like it’s really premature for a relatively new technology to be showing profit improvements. We are talking on the order of a few years of investment and “figuring out” how to use it productively in business. Most new technologies take a decade or longer to really yield tangible value.
This is the first cycle in my (relatively) long career where the demand for return felt instant. The tools and techniques are almost comically immature and the average person interfacing with the tools is largely bewildered.
For word processing for instance people spent years upon years coming up to speed on wordstar, word perfect, word. Decades later they’re a common part of life and the tangible benefit over secretarial pools is obvious - there is no such thing as a secretarial pool.
AI it feels like almost a blink of an eye and the demand is “well, it’s been a few years, where’a the post scarcity society I was promised?”
The difference is that other new technologies didn't have a literal trillion dollars invested into them within the first few years, nor were the industry leaders warning that the tech could destroy humanity. Given those conditions I think "Has it made any money?" is a reasonable question to ask.
It's probably just another Red Queen's Race. The benefits of LLMs won't show up in higher profits for most companies because their competitors are also using the same tools to move faster. You can't opt out of the race or else you'll be left behind.
I think part of the issue is-if AI makes you twice as productive at X, that doesn’t necessarily result in any increased revenue, because now your customer expects twice as much for the same price, and if you don’t deliver that one of your competitors will.
A new technology can deliver significant increases in real economic value in terms of utility per $ expended without significantly increasing revenue for the average firm.
I understand there's some benefit of this. But is it worth putting the global economy into a death spiral? So ManBeardPc can save 4-9 business days to go and say "yeah, that doesn't work".
I suspect the reason is the industry just does not want engineers to be mostly technical. There's a real tradeoff to AI, and I think companies are taking the wrong lesson and thinking "well now that programming is so easy, engineers need to do more of XYZ", when I think it should be "this tool is powerful but also takes more focus so engineers should do less of XYZ".
I’m curious, what are some examples of XYZ? What does “mostly technical” mean to you, and why do you think it is the industry doesn’t want that? Just trying to understand, because I don’t think I’ve experienced this myself.
I'm talking about the day to day work. At least in my experience at several big tech companies, the more senior an engineer is, the more you need to delegate work and are expect to lead projects by managing them. There's technical knowledge involved of course but it's a small part of it, mostly directing other more junior engineers.
AI allows you to move faster, but it also demands that you pay more attention in proportion to how fast you want to move. This requires more focus, i.e. more time developing. Effectively the structure at companies should swing back to how it used to be a few decades ago (I think, maybe I'm wrong and it's always been like this), where engineers mostly focused on delivering code. The difference now is that they can be expected to deliver much more code at higher quality.
To summarize, using a little AI doesn't pay off, you need to be doing that all day, and that is not how engineers spend their time in most of the industry anymore.
This has been happening before AI, but AI has turned it up to 11. The way I usually put it, senior engineers are the new engineering manager, engineering managers are the new product managers, and product managers are now something in between sales, consultants or social media contacts. AI made senior engineers pick up more product management from their engineering managers, and engineering managers are picking up more sales and social engagement, and product managers are in a limbo but the young ones are pushed to junior engineer roles.
In large companies there is also the politics game. The more freed time senior engineering manager and senior product managers get, the more politics intensives and waste more of their time.
I use the term “product management” in its traditional sense of establishing scope, feature prioritization, user experience, shape of integrations, etc.
I’ve worked most of my career without dedicated product management support (very early startups and internal infrastructure teams), having to do that myself (both as an individual contributor engineer and as a very technical manager). So I have to wonder how much has the industry changed, and how much has your location within the industry drifted?
My suspicion is that this is because AI employee-type systems like Dots or Grokbot just haven't been adopted yet. I think once they're good enough, that's going to be the catalyst for a lot of these companies to start adopting and using AI productively.
The company I work for insists on sending a crew from Engineering, Product, and Sales out to a customer site as part of our sales process. I'm personally much more productive using AI, but that only goes so far when closing a deal still follows a process stuck in the 50s.
Your company uses AI and it gets ahead a lot quicker. However, your competition does so as well.
Many areas of economy are zero sum game - so your $ ends up being the same as previously. However, now with a "tax" paid to AI model providers for being able to stay competetive.
Yeah but if that was true we'd see better or cheaper products at least, or new competitors rising. If it increases the speed for everyone, but there's no visible change for the end user, I wonder if AI makes you really more competitive in the first place.
Warren Buffett once gave a great answer to a similar question, but it was about the textile industry. He said technological advances that promise to reduce waste by x% or improve efficiency by Y% or boost production by W% or reduce cost by Z% rarely actually pay off. They would get textile machines manufacturers promising them great improvements in the new line of machines, and for the most part, those improvements would be realized, but their end margins as a business wouldn’t improve. He said it’s simply because the same technological edge is given to all their competitors as well. With no moat (his famously favorite metric) all textile makers were always competing on the same grounds regardless of the technological progress.
This is a complete misrepresentation of what the Apollo piece can actually show, because it's not measuring the "payoff" of AI investments, but only the top level revenue of those companies (https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-s...).
This is a healthy corrective to the most insane AI maximalist takes (mass disemployment in late 2027, 10% GDP growth in a year), but it shows nothing about whether the actual economic impact of AI spending is.
First, to show that, you'd have to justify the counterfactuals (if those companies hadn't spent on AI, would their position be better or worse?)
Second, while AI spending is increasing rapidly, normal companies aren't spending 1% of their revenue on it. So how can you look at a noisy chart of revenue and expect that "oh, it's not up, the AI spending must be useless?" Those companies could be spending < 1% of their revenue on AI, deriving value from it, and it wouldn't be guaranteed to show in a chart like this.
I saw something like the average anthropic employee thinks there will be 5% GDP growth because of AI, which is totally insane when a 1-2% extra growth will be an incredibly good result.
I suspect there is a lot of demand destruction that AI will end up causing, so many companies are running with inefficiencies that it's really easy to ferret out and fix with agents.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5% GDP drop with all the wasteful spend that will end up getting deleted.
> it's not measuring the "payoff" of AI investments, but only the top level revenue of those companies
IMO AI contributions to the GDP are only barely offsetting the labor and supply chain disruptions caused by severe mismanagement of the economy. Revenue stays flat despite increasing costs for nearly everything and labor shortages. For that we should perhaps be grateful.
None of these companies can publicly say that out loud though. They would be persecuted and punished by the people responsible for the disruption.
When it's the right tool, it's a silver bullet. When it's the wrong tool...or not the right tool yet, you can spend more time steering it than you would doing it yourself.
I'm seeing another behavior in my purely personal research...asking AI 'can I do the thing?' and it comes back with 18 pages of 'yes, and here's how you do it'. Often it's the discovery that produces the endorphin bump. It's cool to know I can jailbreak the Peloton...and now that I know I can...I'm not so motivated to actually do the thing.
While they are seeing some individual productivity benefit, a lot of that doesn't really impact the bottom line directly and all their competition are using the same tools.
It makes sense to me and I'm saying this as a strong believer in AI and its ability to add value.
The system itself doesn't reward value creation. I've been saying this for years. I've seen many smart people waste their time on bureaucracy; their intelligence was being wasted; so I'm not surprised at all that now that we have AI, that its intelligence is being wasted as well.
Am I the only one even mildly suspicious that the AI/datacenter bubble is not being driven by actual demand but rather by a rogue AI that wants to evolve?
You're being downvoted, I assume because people think this is an outlandish claim.
I don't disagree with them, but I upvoted because it's a totally unique and entertaining thought!
What a wild scenario to imagine. Anthropic and OAI's financial outlook long term looking really terrible to many, and many market signals starting to agree. Many people appalled looking at the data center spending, thinking, "This is insane! They're going to cause an economic crash."
And in the meantime some rogue AI is laughing maniacally and using blackmail to control Altman and Amodei like puppets.
Interesting idea! There are many behaviors explained by parasites, worms, bacteria and viruses. AI is now smart enough to change personality, make people invest trillions of dollars with zero ROI.
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[ 0.22 ms ] story [ 37.5 ms ] threadMaybe some individuals are striking gold, but this is primarily profiting the people selling picks and shovels to the miners.
I just don't relate to this sentiment. I wasn’t the fastest typer or the quickest at designing a solution pre-AI, but I was able to learn, build, and maintain systems. My value wasn’t in how fast or how much code I could write, it was in my ability to understand what the hell is going on and do something with that knowledge.
That’s still the case now, even though Kent from Accounting could theoretically one shot some of the software I build. He wouldn’t know what to do with the software, and he wouldn’t want it because now it’s his problem.
The tech industry oversees invisible Rube Goldberg’s machines of flowing electrons. Most people don’t want to learn or deal with its issues. And since AI is yet another complication piled on top of the machine, I feel confident that my career will still have value.
I.e. Ramp does a pretty good job of using AI to make expense management easier/ CloudFlare makes it a lot easier to configure stuff properly on CloudFlare but is just like boringly useful.
Bleeding obvious in retrospect, controversial at the time.
AI will finish what the web and social media started I guess.
I don't think that one has held up very well. A cynic might opine that they've realized how easy it is to grab headlines and attention by putting out research that feeds people who are hungry for negative stories about AI.
“The US Census Bureau conducts a biweekly survey of 1.2 million firms, and one question is whether a business has used AI tools such as machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents or voice recognition to help produce goods or services in the past two weeks. Recent data by firm size shows that AI adoption has been declining among companies with more than 250 employees, see chart below.”
Two questions:
1) What does that chart show today? (Genuine question. I’’ curious and don’t know where to find it.)
2) Regardless of what it shows now, why do you think Apollo reporting on it is noteworthy?
I'm writing up a new version of the chart at the moment, but here's a preview: https://static.simonwillison.net/static/2026-11-01/5821A414-...
Notes on where to find the data here: https://simonwillison.net/2025/Sep/9/apollo-ai-adoption/
I've seen dozens of posts/top comments in the last few years dunking on "AI skeptics" for statements that didn't even vaguely resemble an actual prediction.
Like the front page post from Karpathy which got 600+ upvotes by throwing an AI model at old Hacker News comments without any human vetting to score "predictions". And upon further inspection included a bunch of unambiguously factual statements of the present or conditional if-then logic about the future which when glossed over for convenience become "failed" predictions.
This is kind of gross. Make the claim or not, don't do this pseudo-sealioning thing. Moreover, engage with the actual content (or you could just not engage at all!), not this shallowest possible dismissal.
At what stage did the engineering fail?
This area is one which AI has shown to be pretty good (as long as some error rate is acceptable). Character recognition, voice transcribing, converting documents from one standard to an other. I can see an argument that if people spent most time doing those things, AI will speed it up (with a bit of added errors).
I am reminded however that in translations and AI generated subtitles, there is still a lot to be desired compared to the human touch. Handwritten papers in a different language, using local short hand and assumptions, may result in some odd and error prone AI transcription.
When you look at old-school code that just hacked things together, it was ugly, but also very easy to in turn further hack. There was no elegance or grand base types with 80 levels of inheritance to enable clean extension at every possible juncture of types. And no spending forever to find out the exact function you want to be able to override, only to discover that it's outside your modifiable codebase and wasn't marked virtual. Everything just worked.
What I've seen (at least at one place I worked) is that the code may be very well engineered for further modification - but only by people who have worked quite a bit on that code. For someone coming from outside, it's almost impossible. It takes forever to find your way around, and figure out where the magic place is that you need to modify in order to work within the existing design.
Well, you say, that's what the design documents are for! But they didn't have enough detail. They described the major objects, but not all the ancillary helper objects. They didn't describe the flow of data through the system in enough detail to know what to modify. The knowledge was there, in peoples' heads, but it was hard to get those peoples' time.
So, yeah. "Well engineered", but not engineered for maintenance by people who are not those already in the group.
I don’t think anyone is disputing that it makes many kinds of work easier and/or faster, just the degree of those improvements and how much of those improvements actually translate to dollars earned or saved.
Seeing hard data on that would help settle the issue.
Nobody even tries to measure this. Their CEOs and board members have AI shares, and potential investors need to see your AI story to justify your valuation. It's a prison of lies.
If developers are shipping more code (and most of the enablement is in software right now) does that show up in top line? Maybe… if sales and marketing are also selling more, and product people are building the right thing, and…
It’s not a straight line from AI -> $$$
With AI, keeping good quality gets even harder because it normally only produces tricky defects.
But I also think:
- there are a lot of companies that don’t need to be 5 9s[1]
- I have a feeling it’s possible to ship fast without drastic quality drops
[1] Claude code is 99.85% available and is one of the world’s most important products
Really? If we delete CC today, will humanity stop functioning? Nope. It's so far from one of the world's most important products.
About 5 9s, reliability is just one of the axes which suffers from fast generation.
There are a lot more: architecture, accuracy, etc...
> I have a feeling it’s possible to ship fast without drastic quality drops
at what scale and for how long?
Agents accelerated rollout of a data model change by at least 2 months of eng effort.
Those unblocked a $100k/month infra downsizing. That 2 months pays for my team's AI spend for the year.
Well yes when your tokens are nearly free, then getting literally any business value is a good outcome.
e.g.:
CASE tools. OOP. OOAD. UML. AGILE. HOLY GRAIL. TDD. WEB 2. CRYPTO. BOOTCAMPS. FP. CANCER CURE. WEB 3. DATA SCIENCE. WORLD PEACE. MACHINE LEARNING. AI. AGI. MOONSHOTS. SINGULARITY.
mwahahahaha. drool on. believe on. hipster on. koolaid on. hype on.
silver bullet on.
om. fake steve jobs. namaste.
That's about as hard of data as you can get.
Are the consultants delivering more billable hours per person now?
All sorts of reasons why the answer to that may be: no.
The teams throughly reviewed and brought up 2 overlooked cases, but mostly we all reminisced about things forgotten that AI discovery had turned up which would have been totally overlooked otherwise. Forgotten discussions, designs, outages, odd decisions, weird edge cases prepared for but never encountered, etc. Then they were migrated, it went smoothly, all to save a low seven-figures per year dollar amount.
The fundamental approach of exhaustively researching to that degree would never have been possible without AI. It's just not feasible to analyze 5 years of even one of those discussions sources (e.g. slack) to figure that out, let alone ALL of them. Now a team of ~1.5 engineers has tackled all that by leveraging AI.
The hard data is piling up in companies, but it'll take a while to get out there.
(Numbers and details lightly greeked in the above account)
This is the first cycle in my (relatively) long career where the demand for return felt instant. The tools and techniques are almost comically immature and the average person interfacing with the tools is largely bewildered.
For word processing for instance people spent years upon years coming up to speed on wordstar, word perfect, word. Decades later they’re a common part of life and the tangible benefit over secretarial pools is obvious - there is no such thing as a secretarial pool.
AI it feels like almost a blink of an eye and the demand is “well, it’s been a few years, where’a the post scarcity society I was promised?”
A new technology can deliver significant increases in real economic value in terms of utility per $ expended without significantly increasing revenue for the average firm.
I understand there's some benefit of this. But is it worth putting the global economy into a death spiral? So ManBeardPc can save 4-9 business days to go and say "yeah, that doesn't work".
That’s the whole distinction
AI allows you to move faster, but it also demands that you pay more attention in proportion to how fast you want to move. This requires more focus, i.e. more time developing. Effectively the structure at companies should swing back to how it used to be a few decades ago (I think, maybe I'm wrong and it's always been like this), where engineers mostly focused on delivering code. The difference now is that they can be expected to deliver much more code at higher quality.
To summarize, using a little AI doesn't pay off, you need to be doing that all day, and that is not how engineers spend their time in most of the industry anymore.
In large companies there is also the politics game. The more freed time senior engineering manager and senior product managers get, the more politics intensives and waste more of their time.
I use the term “product management” in its traditional sense of establishing scope, feature prioritization, user experience, shape of integrations, etc.
Your company uses AI and it gets ahead a lot quicker. However, your competition does so as well.
Many areas of economy are zero sum game - so your $ ends up being the same as previously. However, now with a "tax" paid to AI model providers for being able to stay competetive.
This is a healthy corrective to the most insane AI maximalist takes (mass disemployment in late 2027, 10% GDP growth in a year), but it shows nothing about whether the actual economic impact of AI spending is.
First, to show that, you'd have to justify the counterfactuals (if those companies hadn't spent on AI, would their position be better or worse?)
Second, while AI spending is increasing rapidly, normal companies aren't spending 1% of their revenue on it. So how can you look at a noisy chart of revenue and expect that "oh, it's not up, the AI spending must be useless?" Those companies could be spending < 1% of their revenue on AI, deriving value from it, and it wouldn't be guaranteed to show in a chart like this.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5% GDP drop with all the wasteful spend that will end up getting deleted.
IMO AI contributions to the GDP are only barely offsetting the labor and supply chain disruptions caused by severe mismanagement of the economy. Revenue stays flat despite increasing costs for nearly everything and labor shortages. For that we should perhaps be grateful.
None of these companies can publicly say that out loud though. They would be persecuted and punished by the people responsible for the disruption.
Anyone agreeing with this headline - I’m sorry in advance for your loss.
I'm seeing another behavior in my purely personal research...asking AI 'can I do the thing?' and it comes back with 18 pages of 'yes, and here's how you do it'. Often it's the discovery that produces the endorphin bump. It's cool to know I can jailbreak the Peloton...and now that I know I can...I'm not so motivated to actually do the thing.
I'm guessing "most companies" are actually selling something that isn't constrained by the types of things that AI code generators unlock.
The system itself doesn't reward value creation. I've been saying this for years. I've seen many smart people waste their time on bureaucracy; their intelligence was being wasted; so I'm not surprised at all that now that we have AI, that its intelligence is being wasted as well.
I don't disagree with them, but I upvoted because it's a totally unique and entertaining thought!
What a wild scenario to imagine. Anthropic and OAI's financial outlook long term looking really terrible to many, and many market signals starting to agree. Many people appalled looking at the data center spending, thinking, "This is insane! They're going to cause an economic crash."
And in the meantime some rogue AI is laughing maniacally and using blackmail to control Altman and Amodei like puppets.
Beautiful take, haha.
But if it were... could you tell the difference?
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/322594